The nights have stayed mild (especially the night before last). Cooler weather has arrived now across England. It's looking quite unsettled and breezy so I'm not expecting nights to be especially cold but with suppressed daytime temperatures the CET should start to fall at least for a few days. Beyond about 7 days is still anyone's guess 

Here is the latest CET tracker. Currently my CET estimate is running 0.4C below the Hadley figure so potential for a large downward adjustment this week. We are entering a period of really quite cold weather relative to average.

CET currently expected to be at 10.09C by the 24th. So could end up below 10C is the final week of the month is also cold.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley            11.5c        Anomaly       -0.6c Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                         10.82c      Anomaly       0.31c

Netweather                      11.55c      Anomaly       1.16c

Peasedown St John        11.2c        Anomaly        0.73c. 

Finally remembered to check up on the September results - cheers as always GW - and having then looked at the predictions for this month, my interest in how October behaves has suddenly been raised.

Funnily enough, before catching up, I was thinking it had been so cool already that my CET estimate would be looking too high. Instead it turns out to be in a good place right now, considering the seasonal cooling trend plus current modelling signals.

Not only that but I'm right down toward the lower end of the pack, more so than I was anticipating to be honest.

So, I have a chance, with a good bit of luck (as is standard!), of offsetting an appreciable amount of the error resulting from the July mishap.

Remains to be seen to what extent the mid-October cool signal manifests in reality. The weather patterns are looking seriously wacky up over the Arctic. My eyebrows are spending an unnatural amount of time high up on my forehead!

Met Office Hadley          11.03c         Anomaly         -0.7c Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                       10.67c        Anomaly         0.16c

Netweather                    11.31c        Anomaly         0.92c

Peasedown St John       10.9c         Anomaly        0.43c.

Met Office Hadley         11.02c        Anomaly      -0.6c Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                      10.56c        Anomaly      0.05c

Netwether                     11.17c        Anomaly      0.78c

Peasedown St John       10.7c        Anomaly        0.23c. 

Met Office Hadley         11.1c         Anomaly       -0.6c Provisional to12th.

Metcheck                      10.46c       Anomaly       -0.09c

Netweather                   11.01c       Anomaly        0.62c

Peasedown St John       10.6c       Anomaly        0.13c. 

Met Office Hadley          10.9c        Anomaly         -0.7c Provisional to 13th

Metcheck                       10.31c      Anomaly         -0.20c

Netweather                    10.86c       Anomaly         0.46c

Peasedown St John       19.55c      Anomaly        0.08c. 

Met Office Hadley         10.9c        Anomaly       -0.6c Provisional to 14th

Metcheck                      10.22c      Anomaly       -0.29c

Netweather                    10. 83c    Anomaly        0.44c

Peasedown St John     10.1c         Anomaly      -0.37c   

Met Office Hadley            10.8c          Anomaly        -0.6c   Provisional to 15th

Metchcheck                      10.12c        Anomaly        -0.39c

Netweather                      10.7c          Anomaly        0.31c

Peasedown St John        10.37c         Anomaly        -0.10c.          

Amazed it's holding up so well. IMBY (which is usually a fairly decent proxy for the CET area) maxima have been consistently barely into double figures for the last 2 weeks. Can only assume minima are propping up the average due to all the cloud

Met Office Hadley         10.7c        Anomaly      -0.7c Provisional to 16th

Metcheck                      10.7c        Anomaly      -0.44c

Netweather                   10.61c      Anomaly       0.21c

Peasedown St John       10.6c       Anomaly       0.13c  

Met Office Hadley         10.6c        Anomaly       -0.7c Provisional to 17th   

Metcheck                      10.03c      Anomaly       0.48c

Netweather                   10.55c      Anomaly       0.16c

Peasedown St John      10.6c        Anomaly       0.13c.    

Overnight temps will continue to prop up the CET for much of the coming week, though nothing exceptional is on the cards: next four nights averaging in the low 9s, while mean maximums reach close to 14°C.

Hints of a cooler regime returning by the final week of the month but tentative at this time. GFS 06z produces a rough final CET estimate in the high 9s °C by my method, while the 00z dropped it off in the low 10s.

Should it not finish below 10°C, that will IMO be a testament to climate warming; we've had a lot of patterns this month that would look right at home in a low 9s °C October of 30-40 years ago.

Met Office Hadley         10.5c       Anomaly        - 0.8c       Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                      9.97c       Anomaly        0.54c

Netweather                   10.5c       Anomaly        0.11c

Peasedown St John      10.6c      Anomaly        -0.13c

Here is the latest CET tracker. Much warmer over the next week, partly due to higher minimums.

Cooler again towards the end of the month but close to average based on current output.

CET likely to finish at 10.43C based on current estimates which is in line with 1971-2000 mean but a bit below the 1981-2010 mean.

Have added in 2008 and 2012 into the chart below for reference.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley            10.5c         Anomaly        -0.7c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                         10.5c         Anomaly       -0.46c

Netweather                      10.52c       Anomaly        0.13c

Peasedown St John         10.15c       Anomaly        -0.32c.  

Here is the latest CET tracker. Much warmer over the next week, partly due to higher minimums.

Cooler again towards the end of the month but close to average based on current output.

CET likely to finish at 10.43C based on current estimates which is in line with 1971-2000 mean but a bit below the 1981-2010 mean.

Have added in 2008 and 2012 into the chart below for reference.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Thanks GW 

If we do come out around 10.4 The Daddy!!!!! Might be turning up in the winter updates soon!!!