Met Office Hadley          14.8c.        Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to12tg.

Metcheck                       14.63c       Anomaly       0.91c

Netweather                    15.45c       Anomaly       1.45c

Peasedown St John      13.9c        Anomaly         1.57c.  

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Met Office Hadley         15.0c        Anomaly       0.8c. provisional to13th.

Metcheck                      14.79c      Anomaly       1.07c

Netweather                   15.33c      Anomaly       1.64c

Peasedown St John     14.0c        Anomaly       1.49c. 

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Met Office Hadley          15.2c        Anomaly         1.1c Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       15.04c      Anomaly         1.32c

Netweather                    15.54c      Anomaly         1.85c 

Peasedown St John      14.2c        Anomaly         1.67c.     

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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

Table

Thanks GW!  It’s good to hear from you.  I don’t think any of us expected you to post under such difficult circumstances.  I know it sometimes helps to do something ‘normal‘ during life’s traumas but please don’t feel that you have to.  We can wait.  I hope life starts to get a little kinder to you.  X

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Thanks for the chart,GW. Bottom already.
Our thoughts will be with you.

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It's very good of you to keep this going with everything else happening in your life right now. We're thinking of you at this difficult time.
All I can say about the predictions is "Oh dear, I wasn't expecting the month to pan out like this at all!"

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You win. 

Excellent! 

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Thanks, GW, and hope you're alright. As Caz says, don't feel under any pressure with this comp. Just look after yourself and family. 

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Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.

 

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Met Office Hadley        15.5c        Anomaly        1.4c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     15.36c      Anomaly         1.64c

Netweather                  15.79c      Anomaly         2.1c

Peasedown St John     14.72c      Anomaly       2.19c.           

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Sending best wishes.

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Yeah, that is a worry - hopefully it'll be up toward 16c before the last week, and not drop too dramatically 

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Met Office Hadley            15.6c         Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                         15.34c       Anomaly      1.62c

Netweather                      15.9c         Anomaly      2.21c

Peasedown St John       14.96c        Anomaly       2.43c   

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Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!

The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.

The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.

 

Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.

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Met Office Hadley         15.6c       Anomaly        1.6c

Metcheck                      15.23c     Anomaly         1.57c

Netweather                   15.85c     Anomaly         2.16c

Peasedown St John      14.84c    Anomaly         2.31c.            

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Oh, FFS

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If the impending cooler spell does drag the CET down into the low-14's it'll be the 3rd or 4th time this year alone where a big change late in the month (that was unforeseen) has stopped me doing better, and allowing others to salvage what would/should have been a bad month for them.

I know the CET comp is only a bit of fun, but it's a bit frustrating. I don't mind being way out when I've totally misread it, but to guess the general pattern right (coolish, warming, warm, cooler) and seem to be on the money halfway through the month, only to be undone by some extreme at the end is annoying.

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Met Office Hadley           15.5c        Anomaly       1.5c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                        15.18c      Anomaly       1.46c

Netweather                      15.76c     Anomaly       2.07c

Peasedown St John       14.9c        Anomaly        2.37c.    

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Met Office Hadley  No change    15.5c        Anomaly      1.5c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck               No change    15.18c      Anomaly      1.46c

Netweather            N0 change    15.76c      Anomaly     2.07c

Peasedown St John                  14.91c      Anomaly     2.38c

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Met Office Hadley         15.5c       Anomaly        1.6c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      15.11c     Anomaly        1.38c

Netweather                   15.76c     Anomaly        2.07c

Peasedown St john      15.0c      Anomaly        2.47c.

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Amazed the CET actually decreased between the 18th and 20th. Was lovely here.

 

 

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Nights have been cooling down Saint. 

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True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c

I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month.

 

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Been down to 6c here though. 

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