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ARTzeman
13 September 2020 10:13:59

Met Office Hadley          14.8c.        Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to12tg.


Metcheck                       14.63c       Anomaly       0.91c


Netweather                    15.45c       Anomaly       1.45c


Peasedown St John      13.9c        Anomaly         1.57c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
14 September 2020 09:56:35

Met Office Hadley         15.0c        Anomaly       0.8c. provisional to13th.


Metcheck                      14.79c      Anomaly       1.07c


Netweather                   15.33c      Anomaly       1.64c


Peasedown St John     14.0c        Anomaly       1.49c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
15 September 2020 11:27:03

Met Office Hadley          15.2c        Anomaly         1.1c Provisional to 14th.


Metcheck                       15.04c      Anomaly         1.32c


Netweather                    15.54c      Anomaly         1.85c 


Peasedown St John      14.2c        Anomaly         1.67c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
15 September 2020 21:20:12

Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


UserPostedImage


Table

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 September 2020 04:54:28


Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks GW!  It’s good to hear from you.  I don’t think any of us expected you to post under such difficult circumstances.  I know it sometimes helps to do something ‘normal‘ during life’s traumas but please don’t feel that you have to.  We can wait.  I hope life starts to get a little kinder to you.  X


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
16 September 2020 05:31:41
Thanks for the chart,GW. Bottom already.
Our thoughts will be with you.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 September 2020 09:25:33
It's very good of you to keep this going with everything else happening in your life right now. We're thinking of you at this difficult time.
All I can say about the predictions is "Oh dear, I wasn't expecting the month to pan out like this at all!"
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
16 September 2020 09:31:34


 


 


My guess is 90% went for below 15c


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


You win. 


Excellent! 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
16 September 2020 09:33:00


Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


UserPostedImage


Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Thanks, GW, and hope you're alright. As Caz says, don't feel under any pressure with this comp. Just look after yourself and family. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
16 September 2020 10:00:38


 


 


You win. 


Excellent! 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
16 September 2020 10:05:52

Met Office Hadley        15.5c        Anomaly        1.4c.  Provisional to 15th.


Metcheck                     15.36c      Anomaly         1.64c


Netweather                  15.79c      Anomaly         2.1c


Peasedown St John     14.72c      Anomaly       2.19c.           






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
mulattokid
16 September 2020 11:03:44


Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


UserPostedImage


Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Sending best wishes.


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
Saint Snow
16 September 2020 11:09:15


Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yeah, that is a worry - hopefully it'll be up toward 16c before the last week, and not drop too dramatically 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
17 September 2020 09:54:25

Met Office Hadley            15.6c         Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                         15.34c       Anomaly      1.62c


Netweather                      15.9c         Anomaly      2.21c


Peasedown St John       14.96c        Anomaly       2.43c   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
17 September 2020 20:39:30

Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!


The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.


The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.


 


Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
18 September 2020 09:58:43

Met Office Hadley         15.6c       Anomaly        1.6c


Metcheck                      15.23c     Anomaly         1.57c


Netweather                   15.85c     Anomaly         2.16c


Peasedown St John      14.84c    Anomaly         2.31c.            






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
18 September 2020 12:29:17


Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!


The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.


The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.


 


Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Oh, FFS



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
18 September 2020 13:55:12

If the impending cooler spell does drag the CET down into the low-14's it'll be the 3rd or 4th time this year alone where a big change late in the month (that was unforeseen) has stopped me doing better, and allowing others to salvage what would/should have been a bad month for them.


I know the CET comp is only a bit of fun, but it's a bit frustrating. I don't mind being way out when I've totally misread it, but to guess the general pattern right (coolish, warming, warm, cooler) and seem to be on the money halfway through the month, only to be undone by some extreme at the end is annoying.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
19 September 2020 09:50:03

Met Office Hadley           15.5c        Anomaly       1.5c. Provisional to 18th.


Metcheck                        15.18c      Anomaly       1.46c


Netweather                      15.76c     Anomaly       2.07c


Peasedown St John       14.9c        Anomaly        2.37c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
20 September 2020 09:53:02

Met Office Hadley  No change    15.5c        Anomaly      1.5c Provisional to 19th


Metcheck               No change    15.18c      Anomaly      1.46c


Netweather            N0 change    15.76c      Anomaly     2.07c


Peasedown St John                  14.91c      Anomaly     2.38c






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
21 September 2020 09:54:05

Met Office Hadley         15.5c       Anomaly        1.6c. Provisional to 20th.


Metcheck                      15.11c     Anomaly        1.38c


Netweather                   15.76c     Anomaly        2.07c


Peasedown St john      15.0c      Anomaly        2.47c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
21 September 2020 12:30:11

Amazed the CET actually decreased between the 18th and 20th. Was lovely here.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gavin P
21 September 2020 16:25:02

Nights have been cooling down Saint. 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
21 September 2020 20:39:57


Nights have been cooling down Saint. 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 


True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c


I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 September 2020 05:20:30


 


 


True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c


I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Been down to 6c here though. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

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