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Ally Pally Snowman
Friday, September 11, 2020 4:39:04 PM


 


 


14.9c (or 15c!) is a great estimate, if only a couple of people have gone higher - even if it were to end at 17c.


But if half (or more) entries are above you, then it's not at all great.


 


I would guess that you and I will be about two-thirds up the table for this month once we have the ranked list.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


My guess is 90% went for below 15c


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
Friday, September 11, 2020 5:01:46 PM


 


 


My guess is 90% went for below 15c


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Hope you're right! 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Friday, September 11, 2020 5:56:29 PM

I went for 14.5c.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gusty
Saturday, September 12, 2020 7:47:18 AM


 Something of a schoolboy error from Steve there, I made a similarly huge  mistake in July and that ruined my shot this year.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Its an unforgiving competition Phil. One big error and you're out of the game. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



ARTzeman
Saturday, September 12, 2020 9:57:00 AM

Met Office Hadley         14.8c       Anomaly     0.4c. Provisional to 11th.


Metcheck                      14.56c     Anomaly     0.84c


Netweather                   15.08c     Anomaly     1.39c


Peasedown St John      13.9c       Anomaly     1.37c .






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Sunday, September 13, 2020 10:13:59 AM

Met Office Hadley          14.8c.        Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to12tg.


Metcheck                       14.63c       Anomaly       0.91c


Netweather                    15.45c       Anomaly       1.45c


Peasedown St John      13.9c        Anomaly         1.57c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Monday, September 14, 2020 9:56:35 AM

Met Office Hadley         15.0c        Anomaly       0.8c. provisional to13th.


Metcheck                      14.79c      Anomaly       1.07c


Netweather                   15.33c      Anomaly       1.64c


Peasedown St John     14.0c        Anomaly       1.49c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Tuesday, September 15, 2020 11:27:03 AM

Met Office Hadley          15.2c        Anomaly         1.1c Provisional to 14th.


Metcheck                       15.04c      Anomaly         1.32c


Netweather                    15.54c      Anomaly         1.85c 


Peasedown St John      14.2c        Anomaly         1.67c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
Tuesday, September 15, 2020 9:20:12 PM

Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


UserPostedImage


Table

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 4:54:28 AM


Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks GW!  It’s good to hear from you.  I don’t think any of us expected you to post under such difficult circumstances.  I know it sometimes helps to do something ‘normal‘ during life’s traumas but please don’t feel that you have to.  We can wait.  I hope life starts to get a little kinder to you.  X


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 5:31:41 AM
Thanks for the chart,GW. Bottom already.
Our thoughts will be with you.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 9:25:33 AM
It's very good of you to keep this going with everything else happening in your life right now. We're thinking of you at this difficult time.
All I can say about the predictions is "Oh dear, I wasn't expecting the month to pan out like this at all!"
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 9:31:34 AM


 


 


My guess is 90% went for below 15c


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


You win. 


Excellent! 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 9:33:00 AM


Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


UserPostedImage


Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Thanks, GW, and hope you're alright. As Caz says, don't feel under any pressure with this comp. Just look after yourself and family. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 10:00:38 AM


 


 


You win. 


Excellent! 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 10:05:52 AM

Met Office Hadley        15.5c        Anomaly        1.4c.  Provisional to 15th.


Metcheck                     15.36c      Anomaly         1.64c


Netweather                  15.79c      Anomaly         2.1c


Peasedown St John     14.72c      Anomaly       2.19c.           






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
mulattokid
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 11:03:44 AM


Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.


No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.


UserPostedImage


Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Sending best wishes.


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
Saint Snow
Wednesday, September 16, 2020 11:09:15 AM


Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yeah, that is a worry - hopefully it'll be up toward 16c before the last week, and not drop too dramatically 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
Thursday, September 17, 2020 9:54:25 AM

Met Office Hadley            15.6c         Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                         15.34c       Anomaly      1.62c


Netweather                      15.9c         Anomaly      2.21c


Peasedown St John       14.96c        Anomaly       2.43c   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
Thursday, September 17, 2020 8:39:30 PM

Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!


The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.


The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.


 


Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.


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