No jetstream for UK until Thu 13th when a flow from NW wraps itself round the UK and develops into a small cut-off low over the Chammel Sun 16th After that dissipates, another cut-off appears on the Atlantic Wed 19th and trundles S then E to to be in the Channel Sat 22nd followed by yet another on Tue 25th. Looks as if it could be stormy for the S for a week or so.10-day pptn is wet for all inland UK.
GFS - Broad band of HP from Azores to Norway but UKoccupying a col in the middle of this to Tue 18th (sometimes the col almost merits the title of a proper LP e.g. Fri 14th). A new LP appears on the Atlantic Wed 19th and moves S & E to push one centre S of the UK Sun 23rd while leaving a twin centre off SW Ireland.
GEFS - In the S, temps back to normal with a bump from Thu 13th, and the mean then stays near the norm but with a good spread of forecasts from the various runs. The control is a notable cold outlier. Rain from time to time; one very big spike in the op Sat 15th. In Scotland and the N the temp declines more gradually to the norm; rather more rain about though Scotland and NE England get a dry spell for a few days around Sun 16th
ECM - shows the same twin centre HP and col; LP develops a day earlier, on Tue 18th, but not as deep as GFS.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl