The Weather Outlook

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Gusty
07 August 2020 13:34:57

Very surprisingly the temperature has climbed rather more rapidly in the last hour. Currently 32.0c.

Of note we appear to have pulled in some very dry air (RH 29%).

If this dryness and corresponding additional heat burst can advect WNW'wards towards the Heathrow area over the next two or three hours the record could be challenged.

 

One to watch

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



xioni2
07 August 2020 13:36:58

Just looking at the latest Arome run. It only shows a max of 29-30C for Heathrow tomorrow, which is some 6-7C lower than the Met Office forecast. High temps look to be restricted to the far south tomorrow on that run. 

Arpege also only going for 32C max tomorrow. Looks like the models have done a big about turn on the weekend!

iPhone weather app has also slashed the forecast with 34, 31, 31, 31 for London from tomorrow. Something has changed big time.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Arome is a very good model and it's modeling the interaction of the low level flow with the topography better than other models. It did the same last Friday too. Very different wind profile over the weekend  compared to today .

Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 13:37:32
Wind is going SE here.
Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2020 13:43:36

 

Arome is a very good model and it's modeling the interaction of the low level flow with the topography better than other models. It did the same last Friday too. Very different wind profile over the weekend  compared to today .

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

I'm assuming it's down to a change in forecast wind direction from South East to North East? 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2020 13:44:05

The cloud bank (which I can see to the west from my house too) is mainly mid to high level, so I don't think it will affect temperatures too much unless it deepens and thickens.

You can see it clearly on the satellite, and it looks likely to keep clear of Kent and East Anglia.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

Arome really is different from the others tomorrow. Interesting test. I've always been a big fan of Arome, so let's see.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Weathermac
07 August 2020 13:47:15
Just had a heavy but brief shower here in Bedworth still 30c though.
Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 13:50:26

I think we will get the fourth hottest day ever recorded.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
07 August 2020 13:50:31
Seems to have plateaued at 33.8C here now. Wind fluctuating between south and southwest.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
07 August 2020 13:51:23

I'm assuming it's down to a change in forecast wind direction from South East to North East? 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

That's been well signposted down here for the past couple of days - it should bring some relief from the heat here when the NE'lies set in tomorrow.

Perhaps the modelling is now predicting the NE'lies to be stronger, or penetrate further inland?

Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
07 August 2020 13:54:46

It will certainly be quite a bust if after all the talk of five 35C+ days we end up with 1, and temps of 29C tomorrow!

Wind swinging more and more westerly here now and knocked half a degree off the temps in the past 5 mins. On the plus side I can feel the breeze starting to cool my home office already!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

xioni2
07 August 2020 13:55:10

I'm assuming it's down to a change in forecast wind direction from South East to North East? 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Yes, pretty much. 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2020 13:56:14

It will certainly be quite a bust if after all the talk of five 35C+ days we end up with 1, and temps of 29C tomorrow!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, remarkable turnaround at such short notice. However I suspect temps will be comfortably above 30 tomorrow, just not 35.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 13:56:45

It will certainly be quite a bust if after all the talk of five 35C+ days we end up with 1, and temps of 29C tomorrow!

Wind swinging more and more westerly here now and knocked half a degree off the temps in the past 5 mins. On the plus side I can feel the breeze starting to cool my home office already!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Its crazy how things change in little over 24hrs. This time yesterday it felt nailed on.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
07 August 2020 13:59:03
I see Wisley was actually fractionally hotter than either Heathrow or Kew at 2pm, with 35.6C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Global Warming
07 August 2020 14:04:24

34.1C here but I think that is it now. Lots of cloud overhead.

Snow Hoper
07 August 2020 14:05:03
My Davis is sitting at 34.2C Down from the earlier 34.8C probably due to an increase in wind.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Rob K
07 August 2020 14:05:17
Heathrow METAR is 36C... awaiting the 3pm figure
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

superteacher
07 August 2020 14:05:22

 

Its crazy how things change in little over 24hrs. This time yesterday it felt nailed on.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

It hasn’t happened yet, so hold your horses! 😂

Gusty
07 August 2020 14:07:32

...meanwhile in furnace like Kent the heat keeps building.

33.0c here now.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 14:07:38

I have three watch locations on my Iphone at 36C

Heathrow

Northolt

Wisley

Can one them hit 37C?

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
07 August 2020 14:09:23

I have three watch locations on my Iphone at 36C

Heathrow

Northolt

Wisley

Can one them hit 37C?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yateley is also showing 36C on the iPhone but I have no idea which station it uses for that. More like 34C max here. Been bouncing around between 33.3 and 33.8 for the past half hour.

 

 

LHR now showing 36.3C. Could still be on course for the fifth hottest day on record still.

 

As a reminder the top 5 is currently:

1) 38.7C - 25 July 2019

2) 38.5C - 10 August 2003

3) 38.7C - 31 July 2020

4) 37.1C - 3 August 1990

5=) 36.7C - 9 August 1911
5=) 36.7C - 1 July 2015

 

It'll push that pesky pre-AGW day out of the top 5 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 14:12:12

 

Yateley is also showing 36C on the iPhone but I have no idea which station it uses for that. More like 34C max here. Been bouncing around between 33.3 and 33.8 for the past half hour.

 

 

LHR now showing 36.3C. Could be on course for the fifth hottest day on record still.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

You might get that 16:00 surge that sometimes happens. Whats things like on the cloud front there?

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

xioni2
07 August 2020 14:13:55

You might get that 16:00 surge that sometimes happens. Whats things like on the cloud front there?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Jiries still keeps/blows it away till 4pm.

Rob K
07 August 2020 14:15:41

 

You might get that 16:00 surge that sometimes happens. Whats things like on the cloud front there?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

More or less total overcast. See webcam up the road which is virtually the exact same sky view out of my window : https://www.blackbusheairport.co.uk/weather/

 

To the east it is mostly clear still - the edge of the cloud is roughly overhead. Temperature has dropped to 32.8C now after a high of 33.9.

 

Kew 36.1 too.

Wisley has dipped back to 35.5

Northolt gone AWOL on 35.1

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

warrenb
07 August 2020 14:16:45
On the up again here, 35.5c now
Tonbridge 45m 

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