A toasty 24c here at the moment

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28C as of 20 minutes ago in Calais - far and away above anything in the UK. However, with a southerly / SSE'ly flow likely, you can see where the hot air is coming from!

Heat really building in the north of France already at 0900BST

28.2C Paris CDG

28.3C Rouen

24C here

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Jersey was already 25.6C at 9am. Could be close to a record-breaker for the Channel Islands too - 36.0C is the all-time Jersey record.

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Jersey was already 25.6C at 9am. Could be close to a record-breaker for the Channel Islands too - 36.0C is the all-time Jersey record.

Jersey Met forecasting 33 or 34C

Wonder if anywhere will top 37C like last Friday.

 

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Meanwhile, in Cumbria, some sun and a temp in the 20's would be appreciated! It's another climate altogether it would appear. So pleased for everyone getting these hot temps tho…………..

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Slower rise so far today. But I think the max is due a bit later.

I think wind direction also become important as turns SE around 15:00. I think we will see a surge mid afternoon.

Heathrow currently 27C at 10:00am

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Think we will see a more linear rise in temps today rather than the early surge then levelling off somewhat. Lighter winds so less of the early heat from France being imported, but would expect that to be more of a factor later. Not sure what others think?

Very slow start it seems, while France is already roasting. I noticed a bit of dampness on the ground this morning so perhaps a bit of dew to burn off first.

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Slower rise so far today. But I think the max is due a bit later.

I think wind direction also become important as turns SE around 15:00. I think we will see a surge mid afternoon.

Heathrow currently 27C at 10:00am

Yes the Met Office hourly forecast (see previous page) has the highest temps at 4pm-5pm. And Heathrow was only forecast to be at 24C at 10am on that, so it is well on track. There always seems to be a slowing of the rise around midday though, before the afternoon surge.

 

Edit - LHR 10am reading was actually 26.7C. I am updating the hourly tracker on the previous page.

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Yes the Met Office hourly forecast (see previous page) has the highest temps at 4pm-5pm. And Heathrow was only forecast to be at 24C at 10am on that, so it is well on track. There always seems to be a slowing of the rise around midday though, before the afternoon surge.

Yes, I have noticed that slowing as well. I wonder what causes that?

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27.5c here now

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Models suggesting 35-36C maxima are about 2-3C too cold atm in the SE.

 

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Models suggesting 35-36C maxima are about 2-3C too cold atm in the SE.

 

Sorry - not clear what you mean. Do you mean that maxima will turn out to be 32-33?

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On the three previous hottest days, Heathrow was already at or above 33C by 11am (BST). It's going to be a long way short of that today, but the modelling does suggest a big rise through the afternoon.

 

Justin - I think he means the models that have 35-36C maxima are showing temps 2-3C lower for the current time than they are right now in reality?

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Sorry - not clear what you mean. Do you mean that maxima will turn out to be 32-33?

Other way round kinda

So we are currently 2-3C ahead of the models suggesting a 35-36 maximun (which is already the most extreme ensembles of the most extreme models).

So naively if we keep this 2-3C lead we would expect to see 37-39C however I'm sure we won't keep it all. The models do definitely seem to be understating the temperature though, so 36-37C definitely seems more likely than not now.

 

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On the three previous hottest days, Heathrow was already at or above 33C by 11am (BST). It's going to be a long way short of that today, but the modelling does suggest a big rise through the afternoon.

 

Justin - I think he means the models that have 35-36C maxima are showing temps 2-3C lower for the current time than they are right now in reality?

 

Oh, right.

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30.9C at Rouen @1000

30.9C at Deelen (Netherlands)

 

Other way round kinda

So we are currently 2-3C ahead of the models suggesting a 35-36 maximun (which is already the most extreme ensembles of the most extreme models).

So naively if we keep this 2-3C lead we would expect to see 37-39C however I'm sure we won't keep it all. The models do definitely seem to be understating the temperature though, so 36-37C definitely seems more likely than not now.

 

Yes, you are right. Headcorn aerodrome is currently 27C while the MetO auto forecast has it at 25C now.

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