The Weather Outlook

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Stormchaser
07 August 2020 07:58:59
Here the temp has rocketed from a low of 14*C at 6 am to just past 21*C as of 8:30.

Reminds me of last Friday with the rapid rise from a non-exceptional start.

Usually a day in the 30s is past 24*C by 10 am here. Will likely be well on pace today.

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Essan
07 August 2020 08:00:00

PS I am never sure why Jersey gets included in lists of UK temperatures. I know it's a British dependency but on that basis you may as well include Gibraltar! 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Channel Isles are considered part of the British Isles.  Although geographically they are really part of France (but don't tell anyone!  )

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Gavin D
07 August 2020 08:14:15

Furnace Friday approaching the mid 20s in parts of the south

Rob K
07 August 2020 08:17:32



Channel Isles are considered part of the British Isles.  Although geographically they are really part of France (but don't tell anyone!  )

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Actually Gibraltar is only forecast to hit 27C today so the Channel Islands will certainly be hotter 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
07 August 2020 08:23:27
28C as of 20 minutes ago in Calais - far and away above anything in the UK. However, with a southerly / SSE'ly flow likely, you can see where the hot air is coming from!
Leysdown, north Kent
warrenb
07 August 2020 08:25:36
A toasty 24c here at the moment
Tonbridge 45m 
Global Warming
07 August 2020 08:27:44

28C as of 20 minutes ago in Calais - far and away above anything in the UK. However, with a southerly / SSE'ly flow likely, you can see where the hot air is coming from!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Heat really building in the north of France already at 0900BST

28.2C Paris CDG

28.3C Rouen

NDunwell
07 August 2020 08:28:56

24C here

Nick

Ruislip (2 miles from the Northolt recording station)

Rob K
07 August 2020 08:29:17
Jersey was already 25.6C at 9am. Could be close to a record-breaker for the Channel Islands too - 36.0C is the all-time Jersey record.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Global Warming
07 August 2020 08:41:19

Jersey was already 25.6C at 9am. Could be close to a record-breaker for the Channel Islands too - 36.0C is the all-time Jersey record.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Jersey Met forecasting 33 or 34C

Hungry Tiger
07 August 2020 09:05:24

Wonder if anywhere will top 37C like last Friday.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ChrisJG
07 August 2020 09:08:50
Meanwhile, in Cumbria, some sun and a temp in the 20's would be appreciated! It's another climate altogether it would appear. So pleased for everyone getting these hot temps tho…………..
Home - near Penrith 150m ASL

Work - North/Central Cumbria

Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 09:09:30

Slower rise so far today. But I think the max is due a bit later.

I think wind direction also become important as turns SE around 15:00. I think we will see a surge mid afternoon.

Heathrow currently 27C at 10:00am

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

superteacher
07 August 2020 09:10:54
Think we will see a more linear rise in temps today rather than the early surge then levelling off somewhat. Lighter winds so less of the early heat from France being imported, but would expect that to be more of a factor later. Not sure what others think?
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2020 09:11:02
Very slow start it seems, while France is already roasting. I noticed a bit of dampness on the ground this morning so perhaps a bit of dew to burn off first.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
07 August 2020 09:12:09

Slower rise so far today. But I think the max is due a bit later.

I think wind direction also become important as turns SE around 15:00. I think we will see a surge mid afternoon.

Heathrow currently 27C at 10:00am

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes the Met Office hourly forecast (see previous page) has the highest temps at 4pm-5pm. And Heathrow was only forecast to be at 24C at 10am on that, so it is well on track. There always seems to be a slowing of the rise around midday though, before the afternoon surge.

 

Edit - LHR 10am reading was actually 26.7C. I am updating the hourly tracker on the previous page.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
07 August 2020 09:14:33

 

Yes the Met Office hourly forecast (see previous page) has the highest temps at 4pm-5pm. And Heathrow was only forecast to be at 24C at 10am on that, so it is well on track. There always seems to be a slowing of the rise around midday though, before the afternoon surge.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, I have noticed that slowing as well. I wonder what causes that?

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

warrenb
07 August 2020 09:18:47
27.5c here now
Tonbridge 45m 
Quantum
07 August 2020 09:22:50

Models suggesting 35-36C maxima are about 2-3C too cold atm in the SE.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Justin W
07 August 2020 09:26:29

Models suggesting 35-36C maxima are about 2-3C too cold atm in the SE.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Sorry - not clear what you mean. Do you mean that maxima will turn out to be 32-33?

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Rob K
07 August 2020 09:26:36

On the three previous hottest days, Heathrow was already at or above 33C by 11am (BST). It's going to be a long way short of that today, but the modelling does suggest a big rise through the afternoon.

 

Justin - I think he means the models that have 35-36C maxima are showing temps 2-3C lower for the current time than they are right now in reality?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
07 August 2020 09:29:07

 

Sorry - not clear what you mean. Do you mean that maxima will turn out to be 32-33?

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Other way round kinda

So we are currently 2-3C ahead of the models suggesting a 35-36 maximun (which is already the most extreme ensembles of the most extreme models).

So naively if we keep this 2-3C lead we would expect to see 37-39C however I'm sure we won't keep it all. The models do definitely seem to be understating the temperature though, so 36-37C definitely seems more likely than not now.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Justin W
07 August 2020 09:30:54

On the three previous hottest days, Heathrow was already at or above 33C by 11am (BST). It's going to be a long way short of that today, but the modelling does suggest a big rise through the afternoon.

 

Justin - I think he means the models that have 35-36C maxima are showing temps 2-3C lower for the current time than they are right now in reality?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Oh, right.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Global Warming
07 August 2020 09:32:05

30.9C at Rouen @1000

30.9C at Deelen (Netherlands)

Justin W
07 August 2020 09:32:51

 

Other way round kinda

So we are currently 2-3C ahead of the models suggesting a 35-36 maximun (which is already the most extreme ensembles of the most extreme models).

So naively if we keep this 2-3C lead we would expect to see 37-39C however I'm sure we won't keep it all. The models do definitely seem to be understating the temperature though, so 36-37C definitely seems more likely than not now.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes, you are right. Headcorn aerodrome is currently 27C while the MetO auto forecast has it at 25C now.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?

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