Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
28C as of 20 minutes ago in Calais - far and away above anything in the UK. However, with a southerly / SSE'ly flow likely, you can see where the hot air is coming from!
Heat really building in the north of France already at 0900BST
28.2C Paris CDG
28.3C Rouen
24C here
Jersey was already 25.6C at 9am. Could be close to a record-breaker for the Channel Islands too - 36.0C is the all-time Jersey record.
Jersey Met forecasting 33 or 34C
Wonder if anywhere will top 37C like last Friday.
Slower rise so far today. But I think the max is due a bit later.
I think wind direction also become important as turns SE around 15:00. I think we will see a surge mid afternoon.
Heathrow currently 27C at 10:00am
Slower rise so far today. But I think the max is due a bit later.I think wind direction also become important as turns SE around 15:00. I think we will see a surge mid afternoon.Heathrow currently 27C at 10:00am
Yes the Met Office hourly forecast (see previous page) has the highest temps at 4pm-5pm. And Heathrow was only forecast to be at 24C at 10am on that, so it is well on track. There always seems to be a slowing of the rise around midday though, before the afternoon surge.
Edit - LHR 10am reading was actually 26.7C. I am updating the hourly tracker on the previous page.
Yes, I have noticed that slowing as well. I wonder what causes that?
Models suggesting 35-36C maxima are about 2-3C too cold atm in the SE.
Sorry - not clear what you mean. Do you mean that maxima will turn out to be 32-33?
On the three previous hottest days, Heathrow was already at or above 33C by 11am (BST). It's going to be a long way short of that today, but the modelling does suggest a big rise through the afternoon.
Justin - I think he means the models that have 35-36C maxima are showing temps 2-3C lower for the current time than they are right now in reality?
Other way round kinda
So we are currently 2-3C ahead of the models suggesting a 35-36 maximun (which is already the most extreme ensembles of the most extreme models).
So naively if we keep this 2-3C lead we would expect to see 37-39C however I'm sure we won't keep it all. The models do definitely seem to be understating the temperature though, so 36-37C definitely seems more likely than not now.
On the three previous hottest days, Heathrow was already at or above 33C by 11am (BST). It's going to be a long way short of that today, but the modelling does suggest a big rise through the afternoon. Justin - I think he means the models that have 35-36C maxima are showing temps 2-3C lower for the current time than they are right now in reality?
Oh, right.
30.9C at Rouen @1000
30.9C at Deelen (Netherlands)
Other way round kindaSo we are currently 2-3C ahead of the models suggesting a 35-36 maximun (which is already the most extreme ensembles of the most extreme models).So naively if we keep this 2-3C lead we would expect to see 37-39C however I'm sure we won't keep it all. The models do definitely seem to be understating the temperature though, so 36-37C definitely seems more likely than not now.
Yes, you are right. Headcorn aerodrome is currently 27C while the MetO auto forecast has it at 25C now.