I admire your optimism Caz!

Sadly, a fair bit of light rain and drizzle moving across the UK this morning. Not that it really means anything for the next 40 days .

 

Forecast models have trended in a counter-intuitive direction this morning, with lower pressure across Scandinavia. It's the last thing you'd expect to see with the setup taking shape in the tropics. Either the modelling is awry, or there's something else afoot... perhaps relating to a combination of high-end heat across the USA and a lot of cooler than usual sea surface temperatures to the west of the UK. Pure speculation on my part, though!

If the lower pressure theme across Scandinavia proves accurate, it will be difficult for the UK to achieve sustained warmer than average conditions next week and the probable final CET range will drop to between mid-15s and mid-16s. Pretty shocking for a month which had strong, consistent extended modelling predictions for anomalously high pressure across the UK and Scandinavia as the dominant theme for the 3rd & 4th weeks of the month. 

The Met Office forecasts were singing from the same sheet. So there I was, thinking it was a gamble worth making to go more than a little above average in a month that looked unseasonably cool for the opening third. Though to be honest, I was surprised this weekend to check back and discover that I went more than 0.5°C above, turns out I had the wrong figure down for the long-term average .

 

So yeah... unless there's a turnaround for next week, I think I'm looking at a large error this month, could well be over 1.5°C.

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Examining the scores for Jan-Jun, interesting that 3 of the top 4 went 17.0°C+ this month. A reflection of that warm 2nd half signal, perhaps.

There's a genuine chance that Gusty performs one heck of a pole-vault to the top of the table.

I'd love to know if there was a genuine reason for predicting a mere 15.7°C for this month - I'm aware that La Nina has some connection, but it's not a reliable one by any means. There's the unusually persistent high pressure across the Arctic, but again, this can have very varied impacts depending on location and in any case, its persistence wasn't clearly predicted as of late June.

I know, I'm being overly scientific about this again... I just can't seem to help it, it's in my veins! 

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Met Office Hadley          15.1c        Anomaly       -0.8c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       14.91c      Anomaly      -1.56c

Netweather                    15.4c        Anomaly      -1.11c

Peasedown St John       15.37c      Anomaly      -1.7c.           

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I admire your optimism Caz!

Sadly, a fair bit of light rain and drizzle moving across the UK this morning. Not that it really means anything for the next 40 days .

Forecast models have trended in a counter-intuitive direction this morning, with lower pressure across Scandinavia. It's the last thing you'd expect to see with the setup taking shape in the tropics. Either the modelling is awry, or there's something else afoot... perhaps relating to a combination of high-end heat across the USA and a lot of cooler than usual sea surface temperatures to the west of the UK. Pure speculation on my part, though!

If the lower pressure theme across Scandinavia proves accurate, it will be difficult for the UK to achieve sustained warmer than average conditions next week and the probable final CET range will drop to between mid-15s and mid-16s. Pretty shocking for a month which had strong, consistent extended modelling predictions for anomalously high pressure across the UK and Scandinavia as the dominant theme for the 3rd & 4th weeks of the month. 

The Met Office forecasts were singing from the same sheet. So there I was, thinking it was a gamble worth making to go more than a little above average in a month that looked unseasonably cool for the opening third. Though to be honest, I was surprised this weekend to check back and discover that I went more than 0.5°C above, turns out I had the wrong figure down for the long-term average .

 So yeah... unless there's a turnaround for next week, I think I'm looking at a large error this month, could well be over 1.5°C.

  Most people admire my optimism and it’s probably the only thing they do admire!  Yep!  St Swithin’s Day and we had a few spots of drizzle!  Who believes folklore anyway?  

You weren’t alone in going high but who can blame us with recent trends?  I know it’s not looking great for us just now but we’re betting on the Great British weathers here, so it ain’t over till the fat lady sings and if we’re wrong, we’ll make others look good!  

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I think July is a write off as far as anything more than an average CET is concerned.
What about August though... could this finally be the year for another scorcher.
1997 as an example for those of you that say it won't be on the basis of an unremarkable summer thus far

Met Office Hadley          15.1c         Anomaly      -0.8c Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                       14.92c       Anomaly      -1.54c

Netweather                    15.38c       Anomaly      -1.12c

Peasedown St John         15.36c       Anomaly      -1.64c

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Met Office Hadley          15.1c         Anomaly      -0.8c Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                       14.92c       Anomaly      -1.54c

Netweather                    15.38c       Anomaly      -1.12c

Peasedown St John         15.36c       Anomaly      -1.64c

 

Gusty has got this in the bag by the looks of things. Very disappointing July ☹️

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A positive among the concerns - Pershore reached a surprisingly high 25.5°C on a day that generally turned out 1-3°C warmer than modelled by GFS, after a night similarly above the predictions.

The progression southward of the cold front on Saturday has also been slowed, allowing a bit more warmth in the south - but that might not quite reach far north enough to do much for the CET.

A very cool look to Sun-Tue by night, with only at best near-average maximums in between. So that's likely to keep the CET down.

Wed-Fri has trended warmer, though - but with unsettled weather arriving from the west by Friday. Ironically, diurnal means could be on the warm side Fri-Sat, as there looks to be a lot of tropical maritime air in the mix resulting in quite warm nights. Details subject to change, of course.

Rising AAM continues to be signalled by the models right out to month's end, but only very gradual, with a weak cycle along the way i.e. it rises a bit, drops slightly, then rises a bit more.

Could it be that the much warmer setup long predicted for 2nd half of July turns up in the first week of August? How 'typical' if it does .

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Met Office Hadley          15.2c      Anomaly      -0.7c Provisional to 16th.     

Metcheck                       15.10c    Anomaly      -1.36c

Netweather                    15.52c    Anomaly      -0.99c

Peasedown St John       15.48c    Anomaly      -1.52c.  

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Met Office Hadley          15.4c        Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                       15.34c      Anomaly      -1.13c

Netweather                    15.75c      Anomaly      -0.76

Peasedown St John         15.76c      Anomaly      -1.24c  

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After a brief warmer spell over the past 3 days, the CET goes below average again from tomorrow. The final week of the month is looking slightly  above average but at this stage not enough for the CET to reach 16C. Currently estimating a final CET of 15.78C. We are probably looking at the coolest July since 2012.

After a brief warmer spell over the past 3 days, the CET goes below average again from tomorrow. The final week of the month is looking slightly  above average but at this stage not enough for the CET to reach 16C. Currently estimating a final CET of 15.78C. We are probably looking at the coolest July since 2012.

I went foor 0.5C below average for this month. Don't think I'll be far out.

 

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Met Office Hadley          15.5c        Anomaly        -0.4c. Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                       15.39c      Anomaly        -1.07c

Netweather                    15.86c      Anomaly        -0.64c

Peasedown St John      15.58c       Anomaly        -1.42c.    

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Met Office Hadley           15.5c      Anomaly     -0.4c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                        15.32c    Anomaly     -1.14c

Netweather                     15.85c    Anomaly     -0.66c

Peasedown St John        15.52c     Anomaly     -148c

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Starting to wonder whether the CET will even finish as high as Gusty's prediction.

We're actually seeing the AAM rise emanating from the tropics but, but the Scandinavian ridge development that was being modelled in the longer range continues to be conspicuously absent.

I think I see the culprit to our north - an extraordinary ridge that develops across the Kara Sea and extends across toward Greenland / Canada. This operates independently of tropical forcing i.e. is not associated with the developing La Nina. It may well be a feedback from the exceptional warmth and lack of sea ice in and over the Kara Sea.

Without that, I'm pretty sure we'd be enjoying watching lows pass fully to the north of the UK this weekend and next week, with temps rising more than a little above average.

Such a shame - a waste of potential.

 

Combined with AAM dropping surprisingly low in the first half of the month, July 2020 has been a total shambles from a forecasting perspective. Things haven't panned out as anticipated even on the broad scale.

This has also been and will continue to be bad news for the Arctic sea ice. For me, month ranks high on on the 'nasty' list, despite the weather having been mainly pleasant locally to me and very usable - not much rain to speak of. It's about the broader-scale and scientific ramifications.

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Met Office Hadley            15.4c        Anomaly       -0.6c Provisional to 21st

Metcheck                         15.26c      Anomaly       -1.20c

Netweather                      15.78c      Anomaly       -0.72c

Peasedown St John        15.63c       Anomaly       -1.37c.  

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Met Office Hadley       15.4c        Anomaly       -0.6c Provisional to 21st

Metcheck                    15.26c      Anomaly       -1.20c

Netweather                 15.74c      Anomaly       -0.77c

Peasedown St John    15.58c      Anomaly       -1.42c.

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Oh dear!  It’s not looking at all good for my guess now!  

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Hmm... maybe, just maybe, the last chance saloon, for the CET to at least make it out of the 15s°C, could be be open next week after all.

I've been reading around and it appears the recent additions to atmospheric angular momentum may be more significant than the model output has been implying recently. Potentially enough to shift the Atlantic storm track more to the northwest of the UK.

As of the midday deterministic runs of day, only ECM shows any real inclination toward this and the ensembles aren't showing a lot of appetite. However, the forcing on AAM from the tropics is complicated at the moment, so much so that the models might be a bit 'confused'.

Sounds weird for non-living entities, but its hard to describe it any other way.

 

Anyway, that's me 'dangling a small carrot of hope' for those who predicted a CET of 16.5°C or more who are at risk of accruing a 1°C+ error this month, for some (admittedly relatively small) mitigation of that error.

Let's see if this one can come through. None of the other opportunities have, aren't we due?! 

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Met Office Hadley        15.4c        Anomaly      -06c Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                     15.35c      Anomaly      -1.11c

Netweather                  15.81c      Anomaly      -0.7c

Peasedown  St John    15.76c      Anomaly      -1.3c.    

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