I admire your optimism Caz!
Sadly, a fair bit of light rain and drizzle moving across the UK this morning. Not that it really means anything for the next 40 days .
Forecast models have trended in a counter-intuitive direction this morning, with lower pressure across Scandinavia. It's the last thing you'd expect to see with the setup taking shape in the tropics. Either the modelling is awry, or there's something else afoot... perhaps relating to a combination of high-end heat across the USA and a lot of cooler than usual sea surface temperatures to the west of the UK. Pure speculation on my part, though!
If the lower pressure theme across Scandinavia proves accurate, it will be difficult for the UK to achieve sustained warmer than average conditions next week and the probable final CET range will drop to between mid-15s and mid-16s. Pretty shocking for a month which had strong, consistent extended modelling predictions for anomalously high pressure across the UK and Scandinavia as the dominant theme for the 3rd & 4th weeks of the month.
The Met Office forecasts were singing from the same sheet. So there I was, thinking it was a gamble worth making to go more than a little above average in a month that looked unseasonably cool for the opening third. Though to be honest, I was surprised this weekend to check back and discover that I went more than 0.5°C above, turns out I had the wrong figure down for the long-term average .
So yeah... unless there's a turnaround for next week, I think I'm looking at a large error this month, could well be over 1.5°C.
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On