Easterlys are usually good for us in the west for sunny weather.  If theres a cold breeze, that will be easily tempered by the hot sun.  At its strongest now.

 

We just need clear skies here and temps are easily locally 20+ yesterday a good example.

Absolutely. West is definitely best and northeast is least (favoured)!

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Almost nothing but vile easterly muck on the output this morning.

I thought it would be impossible to get a summer worse than 2012 but this monumentally awful season is putting in a valiant effort.

Day after day of northerlies bringing grey skies and single figure temperatures like nothing I've ever known in summer and once this torture is over it moves into more horror in the shape of June 2007 style easterlies.

A complete write-off with nothing to look forward to yet again.

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GEFS 00z mean notable warmer than GFS 00z op in the 5 to 10 day period. 

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I thought it would be impossible to get a summer worse than 2012 but this monumentally awful season is putting in a valiant effort.

Day after day of northerlies bringing grey skies and single figure temperatures like nothing I've ever known in summer and once this torture is over it moves into more horror in the shape of June 2007 style easterlies.

A complete write-off with nothing to look forward to yet again.

 

It's a pity we're not just 8 days into summer with plenty of time for improvement. 

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Easterlys are usually good for us in the west for sunny weather.  If theres a cold breeze, that will be easily tempered by the hot sun.  At its strongest now.

 

We just need clear skies here and temps are easily locally 20+ yesterday a good example.

I'm not convinced it's going to be that sunny, even in the west. High pressure looks slack and is likely to bring cloud with the risk of showery rain at times. It might be a case of warm uppers but not especially warm on the ground.  I hope I'm wrong. 

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Mot just the west down here on south coast.

North East = potentially very hot.

Easterly = warm to hot

South East = hit and miss though normally nothing warmer then mid 20's at best.

GEFS 00z mean notable warmer than GFS 00z op in the 5 to 10 day period. 

 

Is that really 20C warmer than average across northern Scandinavia??

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Is that really 20C warmer than average across northern Scandinavia??

-13C colder then average for Gibraltar 😆

Latest trend in most of the models seems to be a Westward migration of this week’s little low after it’s sunk towards Iberia, joining up with a mid Atlantic / Azores low. That’s quite an encouraging development as it makes space for pressure to build to our South East.

Shows up on ECM and ICON nicely (https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_171_2.png), is there sort of on GFS and UKMO, and absent from GEM.

In an ideal world it not only retrogrades West, but sinks South too.

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Latest trend in most of the models seems to be a Westward migration of this week’s little low after it’s sunk towards Iberia, joining up with a mid Atlantic / Azores low. That’s quite an encouraging development as it makes space for pressure to build to our South East.

Shows up on ECM and ICON nicely (https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_171_2.png), is there sort of on GFS and UKMO, and absent from GEM.

In an ideal world it not only retrogrades West, but sinks South too.

Agreed.  We now need to see this overlain by the 0zs in the same positive warm trend.  Worth a watch.  The trouble is, relying on proximity to a LP area is a very risky way of getting your warmth, particularly down to the SW.  

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Jetstream is forecast to loop round England from Thu 11th and the cut-off low so formed taking a trip to Spain before coming back to Ireland Sun 14th. It disappears as a cut-off feature Tue 16th with the main jet running S of the low and between that and a weaker N jet, HP can move in from the E. Something like that persists until Sun 21st when another cut-off loop forms over England which eventually shows signs of breaking up Thu 25th. All looking a bit stormy for the S & W.

GFS pressure synopsis taking its cue from the jet - LP forming over SW Britain Thu 11th and staying in that general area with E-lies of one sort or another to about Thu 18th when the low is a slack LP area over the UK. New trough of LP from Atlantic then moving in and covering 1010mb over all UK Mon 22nd, decaying as HP approaches from SW Thu 25th. 

GEFS runs - temps a little above average approx Thu 11th - Sat 20th then back closer to seasonal norm, not much difference between runs. Quite regular rain throughout, some runs with big totals in the S. Less rain for Scotland but still never really dry.

ECM - Similar to GFS at first but pressure rises from Thu 18th unlike GFS with LP keeping further off in the Atlantic

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Trying to recall when we last had a very warm, very wet summer pattern... it's been a while. We seem to have alternated between dry and warm, dry and average, average/cool and wet.

The classic warm wet month this century would be August 2004.

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Wait all winter and early spring for a decent easterly,,,,,, as soon as summer proper arrives it appears.
At least we had a decent Spring with lots of welcome sunshine, could be interesting at the weekend if we get some sunshine in amidst the showers. Might start watching those CAPE values

Trying to recall when we last had a very warm, very wet summer pattern... it's been a while. We seem to have alternated between dry and warm, dry and average, average/cool and wet.

The classic warm wet month this century would be August 2004.

2007 was very warm.

August 2018 was very wet and warm.

 

2007 was very warm.

August 2018 was very wet and warm.

2007 was certainly wet, but temperatures were close to average and very cool by recent standards, with only June being on the warm side. For E&W, 14.7, 15.0 and 15.3. The July and August figures were the coolest since those months in 1993.

August 2018 was 16.5, which is above average but not by much. And not that wet: 95% of average across the country although wetter in the SE.

Looking through my summer index numbers, the last time each summer month was in both the top 30% (i.e. top 15) since 1971 for warmth, and the top 15 for rainfall, was:

June: 2016 and 2017. So pretty recent. Before that we have to go back to 2007, then 1982.

July: 2010, then 2003 and 2001

August: Last year, then 2004. 1997 was also warm and wet.

The only summer month in the entire series since 1970 that was in the top 10 for both heat and rain was August 2004. 6th warmest, and 1st wettest.

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Both GFS and ECM suggesting the chance of some decent warmth from the south by the third week of June. Finely balanced though with the chance of some cooler unsettled incursions from the west as well.

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Both GFS and ECM suggesting the chance of some decent warmth from the south by the third week of June. Finely balanced though with the chance of some cooler unsettled incursions from the west as well.

 

looks like a classic NW/SE split on the cards.

better, as is so often the case, the nearer you are to the white cliffs of Dover. 

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This weekend coming is interesting.

Points SE might squeeze a decent(ish) weekend out of it.

But with the trough in charge, heavy showers could pop up just about anywhere.

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looks like a classic NW/SE split on the cards.

better, as is so often the case, the nearer you are to the white cliffs of Dover. 

Or with a bit of luck, my famed west-facing front garden.  

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 offers hope for summer in the SE in a week's time but also quite a lot of rain.

GFS - low pressure patrolling up and down the west coast for some time, from Cornwall to Scotland where it finally fills Fri 26th June. It weakens occasionally allowing ridges of high pressure to develop notably Tue 16th and Tue 23rd, but the UK on the whole is on the edge of cool and warm so detailed forecasts look unpredictable. 

GEFS - warmer in a day or two then a long period with mean of runs close to seasonal normal, not as warm in SE as suggested above. Rain in the S mainly around Sat 12th and Sat 19th, drier in between  (unlike yesterday) and rain resuming later. Scotland very warm around Sun 14th; rainfall pattern similar but less accentuated. SW very wet at first.

ECM - disposes of the LP after Tue 16th and develops strong ridge of HP across the UK by Sat 20th. The contrast between GFS and ECM is much the same as yesterday

 

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