ECM looks ripe for a dose of real heat from the south at the end of its run. GFS still doesn't seem to know what to do with the low pressure and just lets it womble around randomly for a couple of weeks. I'll go with ECM thanks 🙂

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ECM looks ripe for a dose of real heat from the south at the end of its run. GFS still doesn't seem to know what to do with the low pressure and just lets it womble around randomly for a couple of weeks. I'll go with ECM thanks 🙂

ECM parallel looking toasty too 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0&para=1

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This weekend coming is interesting.

Points SE might squeeze a decent(ish) weekend out of it.

But with the trough in charge, heavy showers could pop up just about anywhere.

Yes GFS 6Z now has 23C for parts on Saturday with an area from Lancashire down to East Anglia looking favoured for highest temperatures as showers hold the temperature down further SW. Then 24C for London on Sunday and up to 26C by Monday. The heat is creeping back in. 

 

It cools down a little bit after that, though.

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Massive differences between the UKMO and GFS this afternoon. UKMO very changeable GFS great, has a great big high slap bang over us. Shame GFS has been so rubbish recently.

 

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GEM also rubbish looks like GFS is embarrassing itself again which is a shame because it's a lovely warm settled run.

 

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GEM also rubbish looks like GFS is embarrassing itself again which is a shame because it's a lovely warm settled run.

 

Form suggests the ECM will back the others later on with GFS out on a limb. It'll be interesting 7-10 days from now to look back and see which model handled this the best.

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They're actually all quite similar in big picture terms. It's just that in a regime of slack pressure and a southerly displaced trough, you'll always get big variation between runs. The 850s are more consistent between runs and ENS members than the wet or dryness.

What I do quite like about this year so far, and both 2018 and 19 for that matter, is the default. In other words the basic pattern the weather goes back to once one we've gone off on one for a few days. In all the models the default this year is generally a zonal flow with an Icelandic low, low pressure over Greenland, and waves of ridging from the Azores. In 2007-2016 the default was often Greenland high and southward-displaced jet.

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They're actually all quite similar in big picture terms. It's just that in a regime of slack pressure and a southerly displaced trough, you'll always get big variation between runs. The 850s are more consistent between runs and ENS members than the wet or dryness.

What I do quite like about this year so far, and both 2018 and 19 for that matter, is the default. In other words the basic pattern the weather goes back to once one we've gone off on one for a few days. In all the models the default this year is generally a zonal flow with an Icelandic low, low pressure over Greenland, and waves of ridging from the Azores. In 2007-2016 the default was often Greenland high and southward-displaced jet.

Excellent post and thanks for making it as I was lazily thinking pretty much the same thing.

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Not a terrible ECM  but probably showers or thunder storms most days but temps in any sunshine should be mid 20s in the SE and EA. Again signs of the Azores high late on we can but hope.

 

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Yes GFS 6Z now has 23C for parts on Saturday with an area from Lancashire down to East Anglia looking favoured for highest temperatures as showers hold the temperature down further SW. Then 24C for London on Sunday and up to 26C by Monday. The heat is creeping back in. 

 

It cools down a little bit after that, though.

 

The classic NW/SE split usually causes much strife on here!

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General agreement on LP near the UK for the next few days.

FAX keeps it over the UK to Mon 15th while a new centre winds up in biscay

GFS moves it slowly N-wards but the new LP is well W of Spain. After a period of slack LP, there is a more definite centre Sat 20th to the W of Ireland, filling and being replaced by ridge of HP Atlantic to Norway Tue 23rd. LP remains over France and that breaks through the ridge with first an undefined trough across the UK and a definite centre WesternIsles 1000 mb Sat 27th June

GEFS temps mean close to seasonal norm throughout (Scotland rather warm at first) though both op & control cooler from Sat 20th. Rain on and off throughout.

ECM places the LP Sat 20th to the E of UK and then suggests a zonal picture with winds from the SW

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Things seem to be getting worse nothing overly settled on any model this morning. Temps not bad but nothing hot . Could be along wait until 30c.

 

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The classic NW/SE split usually causes much strife on here!

I'm not seeing much if any sign of that kind of pattern on the models at the moment, tbh.

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Well the ECM mean has the Azores pushing in pretty well post day 8. 

When was the last time we didn't hit 30c in June 2016? I'd give u good odds on not getting there this year from where we are at the moment.

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I'm not seeing much if any sign of that kind of pattern on the models at the moment, tbh.

There was a couple of days ago but it seems to be deteriorating more generally now. High pressure notable by its absence after some encouraging runs earlier in the week 

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Things seem to be getting worse nothing overly settled on any model this morning. Temps not bad but nothing hot . Could be along wait until 30c.

 

Indeed. And there was nearly a month's rainfall in some places yesterday....A lot more to come over the next 2 weeks at least.

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Indeed. And there was nearly a month's rainfall in some places yesterday....A lot more to come over the next 2 weeks at least.

Strangely enough though, today was supposed to be wall-to-wall torrential rains for points south.

Yet except for Witney, which has a climate similar to the Pacific Northwest, much of the SE will remain almost dry today.

Funny old world. 

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Virtually no rain here in Chichester after the heavy showers last Sunday afternoon...

 

Strangely enough though, today was supposed to be wall-to-wall torrential rains for points south.

Yet except for Witney, which has a climate similar to the Pacific Northwest, much of the SE will remain almost dry today.

Funny old world. 

Actually it was relatively dry here, but there was an absolute deluge in Wales and the south west. Looking at the 0z and the 6z, this unsettled pattern is set to run and run. I feared this would be the case. It's so cold outside today. 12c at 11.30am in June is not much fun.

There is little doubt that all models are now pointing towards a wet to very wet June. Maybe warming up a bit soon thankfully, but nothing points to settled any time soon.

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Actually it was relatively dry here, but there was an absolute deluge in Wales and the south west. Looking at the 0z and the 6z, this unsettled pattern is set to run and run. I feared this would be the case. It's so cold outside today. 12c at 11.30am in June is not much fun.

There is little doubt that all models are now pointing towards a wet to very wet June. Maybe warming up a bit soon thankfully, but nothing points to settled any time soon.

Hmm, the warming up will continue apace as we head into the weekend, and summery weather with the chance of thunderstorms in the south is nevertheless summery weather.

As I say, if the modelling was to be believed we'd be under biblical rains right now, and, we're not.

The weekend looks okay in the SE, worse, as is so often the case the further N/W you go.

NW/SE split looks the form horse. 

 

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