Hmm, the warming up will continue apace as we head into the weekend, and summery weather with the chance of thunderstorms in the south is nevertheless summery weather.

As I say, if the modelling was to be believed we'd be under biblical rains right now, and, we're not.

The weekend looks okay in the SE, worse, as is so often the case the further N/W you go.

NW/SE split looks the form horse. 

 

Could be argued that some places did have "biblical rain" overnight, but obviously not everywhere ever will.

I think it'll warm up (it has to really) but it will remain unsettled for fair while.

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Strangely enough though, today was supposed to be wall-to-wall torrential rains for points south.

Yet except for Witney, which has a climate similar to the Pacific Northwest, much of the SE will remain almost dry today.

Funny old world. 

We had quite a downpour a short while ago here, but the showers are of the hit and miss variety rather than the relentless frontal deluges that have delivered the shockers of 2007 etc. 

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We had quite a downpour a short while ago here, but the showers are of the hit and miss variety rather than the relentless frontal deluges that have delivered the shockers of 2007 etc. 

 

Yes, I've just had decent shower that will help with the garden. It's sunny now. 

The rain is needed, so I'm not sure why some people seem to favour endless drought!

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This morning's runs, and GFS and ICON 06z, all looking very meh. Warmish (especially at night) but nothing special, pretty wet, not a huge amount of sunshine. Good growing weather for gardens I suppose.

The long term reset still seems on though - for an Icelandic low, Azores high and a NW/SE split starting up.

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Leon Brown flagged up the possible disruption that Tropical Storm Cristobal could lead to when speaking to him last night. I wouldn't advise anyone to put all their eggs in one basket at the moment. Play the game...

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This morning's runs, and GFS and ICON 06z, all looking very meh. Warmish (especially at night) but nothing special, pretty wet, not a huge amount of sunshine. Good growing weather for gardens I suppose.

The long term reset still seems on though - for an Icelandic low, Azores high and a NW/SE split starting up.

 

Yup. NW/SE cause much strife on TWO as they tend to lead to a niagara of IMBY accusations.

 

Yet the simple truth is that they are fairly typical British summer fare. 

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Decent Azores push on the ECM tonight as early as day 7. Will it verify though?

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Leon Brown flagged up the possible disruption that Tropical Storm Cristobal could lead to when speaking to him last night. I wouldn't advise anyone to put all their eggs in one basket at the moment. Play the game...

Where is that atm.

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Where is that atm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Cristobal_(2020) 

I believe it is lurking around Ontario currently.

Things look a bit mixed generally overall with a bit of everything in the outlook.

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Decent Azores push on the ECM tonight as early as day 7. Will it verify though?

It doesn't last though Ally. Very transient and all in all a continued unsettled pattern.

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Play the game...

 

Sunny spells or longer periods of sun, some cloud and occasional showers or longer spells of rain. Winds will be mostly light to moderate, stronger at times. Temperatures will vary from below average to above average. 

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Sunny spells or longer periods of sun, some cloud and occasional showers or longer spells of rain. Winds will be mostly light to moderate, stronger at times. Temperatures will vary from below average to above average. 

 

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Sunny spells or longer periods of sun, some cloud and occasional showers or longer spells of rain. Winds will be mostly light to moderate, stronger at times. Temperatures will vary from below average to above average. 

Well at least we know who writes those Met Office long rangers, now. 

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GFS synoptics have the LP to the SW drifting N and filling by Wed 17th. after which a zonal flow sets is. One LP in this zonal setup gets uncomfortably close to Scotland Wed 24th and eventually pushes cool NW-lies down across all the UK Sun 28th as its remnants work their way into the N Sea

GEFS temps close to seasonal norm, perhaps a little cooler around from 24th as noted above, rain after today in the S gives way to a few days of dry weather in SE, then mostly small amounts in England from 17th onwards. Scottish temos  rather above normal at first, but rain is more general and after 24th quite significant amounts.

ECM similar to 17th but then not zonal; trough of LP from Iceland to France by Sun 21st - it's down the  west of the UK so the east may be warmer, even looking a bit thundery in the S on Mon 22nd

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Pretty decent ECM this morning showers around but we should be getting to 25c most days for the next 10 which s pretty good for June.

 

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It’s all very blobby and flabby at the moment. Hovering a lot around the tricky 1005-1015 range making even short term forecasting quite difficult.

When the music stops and things do tighten up, I just hope we’re not in a cyclonic westerlies pattern. A couple of recent runs have suggested this. Back to zonal flow, but with the jet quite a way South.

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Pretty decent ECM this morning showers around but we should be getting to 25c most days for the next 10 which s pretty good for June.

 

Yup. And as I forecast a good weekend upcoming for the SE in the near term. Looks like a beautiful breezy classic English late spring day tomorrow in south central England.

Quite different to what the doom mongers would have us believe. SE/NW split - classic fare really. 

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Well at least we know who writes those Met Office long rangers, now. 

 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I have seen much much worse ensembles at this time of year for this part of the country.

Looking lovely for some useful weather. Warm, with perhaps a risk of some showers.

Hardly the biblical washout some (one) have/has been forecasting.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I have seen much much worse ensembles at this time of year for this part of the country.

Looking lovely for some useful weather. Warm, with perhaps a risk of some showers.

Hardly the biblical washout some (one) have/has been forecasting.

Have you been seeing the torrential rain that some areas are having? I'm not saying I have been spot on, far from it, but its disingenuous to be blinkered to the fact that some areas have had more than a month's rainfall in the last 3 or 4 days.

I concur that things are not looking quite as bad as I had feared, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been very unsettled in large swathes of the UK. Hopefully, the models continue this improvement, although I think we will continue to see more than a small risk of us being plagued by slow moving troughing for a good while yet.

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