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Global Warming
31 May 2020 10:05:07

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 


For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 


So far 2020 has been one of the warmest years on record. Will this continue into the summer?


Historic CET summary for June


1971-2000 8.1C (30 years) 14.1C


1981-2010 8.5C (30 years) 14.5C


2000-2019 9.0C (last 20 years) 14.9C


June CET record 18.2C 1846 


Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961:


IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Direct link to larger version of the chart


Current model output 


Turning cold for a time next weekend before temperatures bounce back again


GFS 850's -https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=


ECM ENS T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png


Met Office contingency planners outlook 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf


Warmer conditions favoured from a probability perspective

ARTzeman
31 May 2020 10:17:22

Thank you, GW.  Prediction sent.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
SJV
  • SJV
  • Guest Topic Starter
31 May 2020 10:53:24
Yes thank you GW. A fairly conservative prediction sent 😁
Spring Sun Winter Dread
01 June 2020 20:14:00
That's astonishing how that CET average has shot up in the last 20 years.
I'm 36 and fairly confident that I will live to see both the May and June all time CET records smashed, even though we haven't come anywhere close to either in the last 100 years. With long term warming trends like that it seems inevitable !
Whether Idle
01 June 2020 20:16:48

That's astonishing how that CET average has shot up in the last 20 years.
I'm 36 and fairly confident that I will live to see both the May and June all time CET records smashed, even though we haven't come anywhere close to either in the last 100 years. With long term warming trends like that it seems inevitable !

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


Be careful there old son, you might get in trouble for mentioning a large albino betrunked mammal native to Asia and Africa that entered the building about 30 years ago.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2020 04:28:05

  Eeek!  I almost missed this!  Lockdown must be affecting my internal calendar!  I only had one thing on my mind yesterday and that was having a barbecue with our son and his partner!  


Guess sent!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
02 June 2020 11:23:09

Met Office Hadley           16.5c        Anomaly         3.4c. Provisional to 1st.


Metcheck                        15.36c      Anomaly         1.21c


Netweather                     17.82c      Anomaly         3.73c


Peasedown St John        16.5c        Anomaly          2.1c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2020 18:02:34

Where’s Art today?  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
03 June 2020 22:03:14


Where’s Art today?  


Originally Posted by: Caz 

No update from Hadley.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 June 2020 02:54:02


No update from Hadley.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

  OK thanks Art.  Your absence just got me a bit worried.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
04 June 2020 09:58:38

MET OFFICE HADLEY           15.7c           Anomaly          2.4c  Provisional to 3rd.


Metcheck                             14.92c        Anomaly           0.77c


Netweather                          16.38c        Anomaly           2.29c


Peasedown St John            15.2c          Anomaly           0.6c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
05 June 2020 10:03:51

Met Office Hadley            14.7c           Anomaly           1.4c Provisional to 4th.


Metcheck                         14.01c         Anomaly           -0.14c


Netweather                      15.2c           Anomaly           1.03c


Peasedown St John        15.4c           Anomaly           0.8c.        






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
05 June 2020 11:34:59

So, June's out of the starting blocks on a positive (mean temperature) note but now we're into a considerably cool spell that looks to continue through Sat, then ease a bit but mainly by day, with nights taking a little while to recover.


GFS 00z & 06z runs both drag the CET downward to a low of ~12.5°C on 10th, over 1°C below average for that point in the month.


Then comes a warm-up sufficient to neutralise the CET anomaly by the midpoint of June, at ~14°C. 


Both runs go on to feature near to slightly above average temperatures overall, with the CET ~14.3°C as of 20th.


 


Meanwhile, the ECM 00z is a LOT warmer for Thu-Fri (maximums low to mid-20s) and a fair bit warmer for Sat-Sun (mid-high 20s).



Considering the overall negative bias of GFS with temps (e.g. the 06z of 1st June had the CET at only 13.8°C to 4th), there's plenty of reason to anticipate a warmer than average CET by mid-month.


Considering an upsurge in AAM is expected by mid-month and which has been for some time (bar a wobble away for a few days prior to yesterday), which corresponds to a warm to very warm weather pattern for the UK, I'm already starting to suspect I should have gone at least half a degree higher with my CET estimate (14.98°C)! Somehow, I keep thinking chilly spells are going to hit harder than they do .



If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
06 June 2020 10:12:43

Met Office Hadley           14.1c        Anomaly        0.8c Provisional to 5th.


Metcheck                        13.20c      Anomaly        -0.95c


Netweather                     14.43c      Anomaly        0.34c


Peasedown St John        14.1c       Anomaly        -0.5c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
07 June 2020 12:02:08

Met Office Hadley          13.6c          Anomaly        0.2c. Provisional to 6th


Metcheck                       12.89c        Anomaly        -1.26c


Netweather                    13.81c        Anomaly        -0.29c


Peasedown St John       13.54c        Anomaly        -1.06c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
moomin75
07 June 2020 15:03:18


Met Office Hadley          13.6c          Anomaly        0.2c. Provisional to 6th


Metcheck                       12.89c        Anomaly        -1.26c


Netweather                    13.81c        Anomaly        -0.29c


Peasedown St John       13.54c        Anomaly        -1.06c.    


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Will be below average by tomorrow then.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ARTzeman
08 June 2020 10:13:58

Met Office Hadley            13.4c          Anomaly          -0.0c  Provisional to 7th.


Metcheck                         12.39c        Anomaly          -1.56c


Netweather                      13.53c        Anomaly          -0.57c


Peasedown St John         13.7c          Anomaly          -0.9c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
08 June 2020 19:36:06

Increasing confidence that the CET will bottom out 10th-11th just below 13.0°C, before starting to climb considerably as warm conditions spread in from the southeast or east. Some days look very warm in places, while the nights become notably mild.


GFS 12z numbers take the CET estimate all the way up to 15.0°C as of 24th, but this is fraught with the usual increasingly massive caveats.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
08 June 2020 20:09:26


Increasing confidence that the CET will bottom out 10th-11th just below 13.0°C, before starting to climb considerably as warm conditions spread in from the southeast or east. Some days look very warm in places, while the nights become notably mild.


GFS 12z numbers take the CET estimate all the way up to 15.0°C as of 24th, but this is fraught with the usual increasingly massive caveats.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Be interesting to see what everyone's gone for this month..


 


 


[hint, hint, GW 😁]



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
09 June 2020 10:17:18

Met Office Hadley          13.3c        Anomaly        -0.2c Provisional to 8th


Metcheck                       12.45c      Anomaly        -1.70c


Netweather                    13.34c      Anomaly        -0.77c


Peaasedown St John      13.82c      Anomaly         -0.78c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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