Ferguson under sustained attack now. 

Coding that led to lockdown was 'totally unreliable' and a 'buggy mess', say experts

...
The code, written by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London, was impossible to read, scientists claim
....
“There appears to be a bug in either the creation or re-use of the network file. If we attempt two completely identical runs, only varying in that the second should use the network file produced by the first, the results are quite different,” the Edinburgh researchers wrote on the Github file.

After a discussion with one of the Github developers, a fix was later provided. This is said to be one of a number of bugs discovered within the system. The Github developers explained this by saying that the model is “stochastic”, and that “multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/coding-led-lockdown-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

I don't really understand the bolded part. Logically the only way I can see how the results can vary is if a) if the seed is altered b) there is a random component in the model. To my understanding a would be somewhat akin to weather model ensembles where the starting conditions are varied to account for uncertainty. Not sure about b, perhaps a random component to address uncertain patterns of human behaviour?

Apparently much of the code is very old and some has been converted from Fortran. Neither point necessarily implies a problem or shortcoming IMO.

Perhaps it was the "pub run" 

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Ferguson under sustained attack now. 

Coding that led to lockdown was 'totally unreliable' and a 'buggy mess', say experts

...
The code, written by Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London, was impossible to read, scientists claim
....
“There appears to be a bug in either the creation or re-use of the network file. If we attempt two completely identical runs, only varying in that the second should use the network file produced by the first, the results are quite different,” the Edinburgh researchers wrote on the Github file.

After a discussion with one of the Github developers, a fix was later provided. This is said to be one of a number of bugs discovered within the system. The Github developers explained this by saying that the model is “stochastic”, and that “multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/coding-led-lockdown-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

I don't really understand the bolded part. Logically the only way I can see how the results can vary is if a) if the seed is altered b) there is a random component in the model. To my understanding a would be somewhat akin to weather model ensembles where the starting conditions are varied to account for uncertainty. Not sure about b, perhaps a random component to address uncertain patterns of human behaviour?

Apparently much of the code is very old and some has been converted from Fortran. Neither point necessarily implies a problem or shortcoming IMO.

 

I was quite surprised  when I   got embroiled in the Scientific community the amount of Fortran still "sculling about".  I suspect it was the last bastion of  it.

 

 

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Slides at the following link.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/885642/2020-05-16_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_for_publication.pdf

To be fair they do show the TfL data today.

There was a question from the member of the public from Gateshead about the virus being more widespread in parts of the north-east and whether this would affect the timing of schools going back. Did anyone catch the response? I started listening but find Williamson very difficult to listen and switched off.

 

Leader of Hartlepool Borough Council, Shane Moore, defends his decision to not take back pupils from June 1st on safety grounds, saying “I don’t care” if there are sanctions. @skynews

— Samantha Washington (@skynewsSam) May 16, 2020

Like you, JH, it was in one ear and out the other. I am afraid the daily repetition of "Coro-mantras" and Williamson's underwhelming, saccharine and deadpan political rhetoric make it difficult to keep up the concentration. As I recall they were trying to make the point that the R number may well vary locally for a variety of reasons and decisions will be guided by the science. They are watching how school reopening is being managed in Europe, especially Denmark, which strikes me as a tad surreal given the Brexit negotiations in the background. I am beginning to wonder if these Orwellian repetitions of government policy are now of acceptable quality and usefulness - though I'd rather have them than nothing.

For me the reopening of schools is fraught with concerns and unknown risks and I keep coming back to the old adage "Firstly, do no harm..." If we get it wrong....

Roger

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Like you, JH, it was in one ear and out the other. I am afraid the daily repetition of "Coro-mantras" and Williamson's underwhelming, saccharine and deadpan political rhetoric make it difficult to keep up the concentration. As I recall they were trying to make the point that the R number may well vary locally for a variety of reasons and decisions will be guided by the science. They are watching how school reopening is being managed in Europe, especially Denmark, which strikes me as a tad surreal given the Brexit negotiations in the background. I am beginning to wonder if these Orwellian repetitions of government policy are now of acceptable quality and usefulness - though I'd rather have them than nothing.

For me the reopening of schools is fraught with concerns and unknown risks and I keep coming back to the old adage "Firstly, do no harm..." If we get it wrong....

Roger

Hi Roger

In this case there are consequences for the ‘Do nothing’ option as well. It’s claimed, quite reasonably, that disadvantaged pupils are losing out (eg if they don’t have a PC or broadband). Then there will be some who find studying at home difficult.

As regards the R number, it’s inevitable that it will vary according to local factors such as areas of high population density. What I can’t see is how local variations in the level of restrictions can be policed/managed. It’s tricky enough having Scotland and Wales with their own rules; can you imagine, say, London relaxing the measures whilst parts of the commuter belt of Surrey or Kent still have strict ‘stay at home/social distancing’  rules because of local outbreaks?

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Just seen people gathering in large groups in Hyde Park on Twitter.

What a disgrace these people are. I’m sick of it. They should all be fined. What was the point of increasing the fine, or was it just more lip service from HMG.

Also, while I am at it. That Jennie women at the daily presser just comes across as a nodding donkey and mouthpiece of the government.

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Hi Roger

In this case there are consequences for the ‘Do nothing’ option as well. It’s claimed, quite reasonably, that disadvantaged pupils are losing out (eg if they don’t have a PC or broadband). Then there will be some who find studying at home difficult.

As regards the R number, it’s inevitable that it will vary according to local factors such as areas of high population density. What I can’t see is how local variations in the level of restrictions can be policed/managed. It’s tricky enough having Scotland and Wales with their own rules; can you imagine, say, London relaxing the measures whilst parts of the commuter belt of Surrey or Kent still have strict ‘stay at home/social distancing’  rules because of local outbreaks?

Thanks Peter - I agree with that of course - but as I wrote earlier today:

"I can't see the logic of returning kids to school now, the rump of the summer term, unless the entire focus is accelerated preparation for the autumn term so there is real purpose to the exercise, justifying any risks. I suspect it is covert child minding aims that are at the root of all this - getting folk back to work, not excellence in schooling. If we REALLY want to make an impact why not create a new term in June/July/August and take it seriously? ...

... there is still a strong possibility of a second peak and worse - and we need to be quicker off the mark next time with a proper lockdown and adequate home schooling from day 1...."

Roger

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Just seen people gathering in large groups in Hyde Park on Twitter.

Oh yes - what a class act, "I AM NOT MAN" indeed....

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Oh yes - what a class act, "I AM NOT MAN" indeed....

TWEET. Members enable at bottom of page

 

I'd round them up and fine the lot of them !  The  money should go into Coronavirus research.

 

 

 

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Thanks Peter - I agree with that of course - but as I wrote earlier today:

"I can't see the logic of returning kids to school now, the rump of the summer term, unless the entire focus is accelerated preparation for the autumn term so there is real purpose to the exercise, justifying any risks. I suspect it is covert child minding aims that are at the root of all this - getting folk back to work, not excellence in schooling. If we REALLY want to make an impact why not create a new term in June/July/August and take it seriously? ...

... there is still a strong possibility of a second peak and worse - and we need to be quicker off the mark next time with a proper lockdown and adequate home schooling from day 1...."

Roger

I can see the logic in year 6 pupils returning as a lot of works goes into preparing them for high school including visits to the high school during the couple of months prior to them finishing primary school. My own daughter is in year 6 and I am hoping she does get back so that she  is ready for the huge step up and also, it’s important for her mental well-being. I am though unsure as to the benefit of Reception and year 1 returning.

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I know it sounds bad but there is part of me that just wants to get this virus and get it over and done with. I'm 22, have a BMI of 18.6, have no known underlying health issues and I don't have much social contact apart from the people I work with and one or two members of my family. It might knock me down for a few days but I'm at very low risk of any serious effects from it.

At the same time, I have a dad who isn't in the most wonderful shape so I have to shelter him as much as possible. It really is a no win situation this.

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The government want our children to go back to school in June but pupils of Eton and Harrow will not be starting until September. What the …..

https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2020/05/16/if-eton-isnt-reopening-until-at-least-september-why-the-hurry-to-bring-back-state-schools/ 

Excuse my ignorance but I always assumed "high school" was only seen on US tv programmes and films.

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I've been trying to be supportive of the government in the sense that there are a lot of dilemmas and although they weren't doing great it wasn't easy.

But that all changed yesterday for me with Hancock. It was such blatant lying and mis-representation and self congratulation regarding care homes that I no longer have any confidence in any of them.

Despite my many past criticisms of this government, back at the start of this crisis I was still prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and assumed that they would do all they possibly could to ensure that this country was spared from the very worst effects of Covid-19 when it first reached these islands.

Sadly, it seems as though I should have been much more worried about the way the government responded at the start. As I have said before, it was never going to be possible to keep the virus out of the UK completely as long as it was around and sadly, some deaths were always going to be inevitable. However, there is no way that this country, given our resources and also in view of the fact that we had rather more warning about the coming of this virus than many others countries had, should now have a death toll of circa 35,000. That for me is nothing short of a national scandal. If our death toll was no worse or not a great deal worse than that of Germany (latest figure I saw for there was around 7.5K deaths from Covid-19), there would have been far fewer grounds for people to have criticised HMGs' response.

Once this is over, there will need to be a long and searching inquiry in this country to find out why this crisis wasn't better handled from the beginning.

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Just seen people gathering in large groups in Hyde Park on Twitter.

What a disgrace these people are. I’m sick of it. They should all be fined. What was the point of increasing the fine, or was it just more lip service from HMG.

Also, while I am at it. That Jennie women at the daily presser just comes across as a nodding donkey and mouthpiece of the government.

That's a very demeaning and uncalled for comment. She's a darn sight brighter than you mister.  

 

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Regional data for new cases today in England

The 7 English regions 

• London +166 (0.6%) 26,359


• Midlands +200 (0.8%)23858


• North West +174 (0.7%) 23,476


• North East and Yorkshire211 (0.9%)22563


• South East +136 (0.7%) 20,071


• East of England +101 (0.8%) 12,972


• South West +39 (0.5%) 7,266

The 10 local areas with the highest cases

1. Kent +53 (1.2%) 4,411


2. Lancashire +23 (0.7%) 3,322


3. Birmingham +28 (0.9%) 3,260


4. Hampshire +12 (0.4%) 3,133


5. Essex +25 (0.8%) 3,043


6. Surrey +11 (0.4%) 2,803


7. Hertfordshire +18 (0.7%) 2,711


8. Sheffield +18 (0.7%) 2,461


9. Cumbria +8 (0.4%)2137


10. Staffordshire +18 (0.9%) 2,059

The 10 local areas with the lowest cases

1. Rutland +2 (6.3%) 32


2. North East Lincolnshire +1 (0.7%) 146


3. Isle of Wight +3 (1.8%) 169


4. Torbay 221 - No change


5. Bath and North East Somerset +1 (0.4%) 227


6. Bracknell Forest 235 - No change


7. Windsor and Maidenhead +1 (0.4%) 278


8. Calderdale 279  - No change


9. Hartlepool 295  - No change


10. Portsmouth 311  - No change

I can see the logic in year 6 pupils returning as a lot of works goes into preparing them for high school including visits to the high school during the couple of months prior to them finishing primary school. My own daughter is in year 6 and I am hoping she does get back so that she  is ready for the huge step up and also, it’s important for her mental well-being. I am though unsure as to the benefit of Reception and year 1 returning.

You are right that the younger pupils are a lot more difficult to organise from a social distancing kind of way, SJ. I must have been 8 or 9 when we had the Polio epidemic in the 50s. We took that in our stride, but some people were ending up in iron lungs or gravely disabled. Year 6 is a priority. Some take the view that schools should be "teaching for exams", but I'd maintain that education should be more widely-based than that.

My preference would be for 3-4 weeks recovery time and preparation before a reopening mid-June to mid-July. That could be axed if there were signs of another peak mid-June.

Roger

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That's a very demeaning and uncalled for comment. She's a darn sight brighter than you mister. 

 

I like her - she always tries to give a straight answer. 

Unlike some politicians, scientists   don't tend to get to elevated positions unless they know what they are on about.

 

 

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That's a very demeaning and uncalled for comment. She's a darn sight brighter than you mister.  

 

I never said she wasn’t bright, I also never said that I was brighter than her. That doesn’t mean I don’t consider her a nodding donkey.

I seem to remember you calling me out for calling Hancock a slime ball. Seems, that a few posters agree with me today on that front as well.

 

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I never said she wasn’t bright, I also never said that I was brighter than her. That doesn’t mean I don’t consider her a nodding donkey.

I seem to remember you calling me out for calling Hancock a slime ball. Seems, that a few posters agree with me today on that front as well.

 

I agree with you - some of the things she has said have certainly raised an eyebrow. 

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