Just guessing but I wonder if transmission from infected surfaces is less of a worry than first thought? Perhaps transmission is mostly though more direct means such as been coughed on or in a small space with others shedding the virus?

If surfaces were a major part of transmission it's difficult to see how people in the same household could avoid it but anecdotal evidence as well as some studies show that transmission within households is not as high as expected. 

That's my guess too. 

 

Just guessing but I wonder if transmission from infected surfaces is less of a worry than first thought? Perhaps transmission is mostly though more direct means such as been coughed on or in a small space with others shedding the virus?

If surfaces were a major part of transmission it's difficult to see how people in the same household could avoid it but anecdotal evidence as well as some studies show that transmission within households is not as high as expected. 

I mentioned the person I know who died earlier.  He works away and his wife runs the pub.  He’d come home on the last Friday night before pubs closed and was pulling pints behind the bar as it was packed to the rafters with people having their final booze binge.  He was taken to hospital five days later, subsequently put on a respirator and died three weeks later.  

It seems there’s no doubt he already had the virus that night so you would surely expect others to have caught it.  We half expected to be a hotspot, yet nobody came down with symptoms!   It just seems there are unknown factors involved!

Apparently the government are sending these out at random. Shame they're still not doing antibody tests, this far into the pandemic they're a must IMO...

I also don't understand this, if there are now very reliable antibody tests, then why not first do some random, representative testing and then use them more widely. They won't solve all our problems, but they'd help a lot, even if some people have to do them at GP surgeries. It may happen I guess later on.

The whole objective of the test-trace-isolate strategy is to separate the healthy people from the infected ones and isolate the virus. Knowing with a reasonably high level of confidence who has short term immunity can really help that strategy.

I do hope you’re right!  We do seriously need to rethink our lifestyle and make healthier choices.  This has been hammered home for a long time but it’s been slow on the uptake.  Let’s hope this is a wake up call on all counts.  I know I’ve been too sedentary of late and really need to get on my bike!  Even when I go out for my daily walk, I can tell I’m out of condition. 

I've been doing exactly this for the last month or so. Middle-aged spread has been creeping up and my BMI has tipped into the overweight category. So I've been out cycling a lot in the absence of anything else to do; 100 miles last month and 77 so far this month. I've been taking different routes, been through Yateley a couple of times and on the old runways at Blackbushe, Rob has probably passed me at some point!

I've also been consciously avoiding the snack cupboard and having smaller portions since the start of last week. I've lost nearly 1kg in the last week but I still want to lose another 6kg or so!

I also don't understand this, if there are now very reliable antibody tests, then why not first do some random, representative testing and then use them more widely. They won't solve all our problems, but they'd help a lot, even if some people have to do them at GP surgeries. It may happen I guess later on.

The whole objective of the test-trace-isolate strategy is to separate the healthy people from the infected ones and isolate the virus. Knowing with a reasonably high level of confidence who has short term immunity can really help that strategy.

The thing that gets me is there's not even any mention of it by the government! It's as if, having been bitten by the crappy "instant result" tests from China, they've given up entirely.

Of course, there's the small matter of getting a 5ml / 10ml blood sample, so the kits will be more expensive and more people will fail or be unable to follow the instructions, but even so... it seems daft to me.

Apparently the government are sending these out at random. Shame they're still not doing antibody tests, this far into the pandemic they're a must IMO...

 

I agree. Information this would give is the ultimate key to the best way to ease the lockdown.

As an aside I found it hilarious to see one of the signatories - Lord Bethell of Romford. Knowing Romford as I do, they must have been getting short of titles!

This is absolutely hideous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52645276

I'm a healthy 33 year old but this is why I'm still scared of this virus.

 

Yes, that would make perfect sense. The number of people dying each year follows a shallow sine-wave and it stands to reason that if some of those who would have died during the following year are prematurely killed by Covid-19, then they won't be able to die later in the year as they'll already have died.

There should indeed be a marked dip in death rates - primarily the elderly - later this year as a result (assuming Covid-19 deaths have fallen by then).

Also to add to this last winter saw fewer then average deaths.. or was just February & March? Anyway it's irrelevant what is relevant is just prior to up tick in death's there had been a period of below average deaths. 

 

Not at all at the moment, is the answer! I'm missing the wolves terribly but as only two volunteers at a time are allowed for one day a weekend... it'll be a long time before I'm back there.

How will we be paying for all this? The Telegraph has a couple of articles this morning based on some leaks.

"could require measures including an increase in income tax, the end of the triple lock on state pension increases and a two-year public sector pay freeze."

"The document advises Mr Sunak that it is now likely to become necessary to break at least one of the Conservatives' key manifesto pledges not to increase taxes or scrap the triple lock on state pension rises.

It states: "To fill a gap this size [in the public finances] through tax revenue risers would be very challenging without breaking the tax lock. To raise fiscally significant amounts, we would either have to increase rates/thresholds in one of the broad-based taxes (IT, NICS, VAT, CT) or reform one of the biggest tax reliefs (eg pensions tax)."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/12/exclusive-treasury-blueprint-raise-taxes-freeze-wages-pay-300bn/

How would I do it? Well, assuming that everything's fair game I would:

Scrap HS2

Scrap higher-rate pension tax relief - 20% for all

Increase CGT to 20% and decrease the allowance to £10,000

Increase dividend tax to 20% and remove the allowance entirely

Remove the £1000 interest allowance

Decrease ISA limits to £15000 a year in total

Remove the housing allowance from IHT ot reduce IHT allowances to £250,000 per person.

If more were needed...

Scrap the pensions triple lock

Decrease the higher tax thresholds - by £5000 for the 40% rate and £10000 for the 45% rate

Institute a 1% public sector pay rise limit for 2 years, or inflation (whichever is higher), for those earning less than £40,000. 0% rise above that.

Reduce the number of MPs to say 500.

These measures would affect the wealthy more than the poor, but I've a feeling whatever we end up with won't actually do that!

Apologies if this has already been debated, but opening UIA for the first time today and seeing 6 pages of today's thread... I couldn't face reading all of it!

Anyway, there remains an increasingly strong argument for helicopter money to be used to clear the accumulated debt.

In normal times, the government effectively being handed c£300bn to then spend it would (I'm being a little simplistic) create inflationary pressure, and once that wheel begins to turn, it can gather pace and become near impossible to stop (at least without economically/socially catastrophic measures)

Yet the current debt is being accumulated through the replacement of GDP lost through the suspension of a huge chunk of the economy.

In short, the inflationary hit of the govt spending £300bn is happening right now. But it's being [more than] outweighed by the deflationary pressure of a masive proportion of the economy being suspended. Being 'given' the £300bn it's already spent won't lead to heightened inflation.

BBC - "We will have summer tourist season, promises EU"

If our Government put out such a statement, the BBC, *****Morgan, and the some on here would be accusing the Government of planned murder.

Indeed they would!

Meanwhile New Zealand shows how to take the virus seriously:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls

New Zealand of course is not strictly comparable to European countries, it is a remote and sparsely populated archipelago in any case.

However, the only way to defeat the virus, is to clean up internally to the extent that testing, tracking and contact tracing can work and then to keep it out by preventing mass travel to and from overseas.

My concerns are:

1) We have begun lifting lockdown before the app and contact tracing teams are in place

2) We have begun lifting lockdown before antibody testing

3) We have begun lifting lockdown from what looks to be a relatively high ongoing rate of infection

I expect cases to be rising again in 4 weeks time or perhaps earlier. 

This is absolutely hideous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52645276

I'm a healthy 33 year old but this is why I'm still scared of this virus.

It's just so random. This is what strikes me the most about this virus; millions have had it with absolutely no symptoms, even more have just mild symptoms. Others seem to have been exposed to it repeatedly but not caught it. Yet a small minority - yes, most with underlying medical issues or are very old, but certainly not all - have the infection become really serious and either make them seriously ill or kills them.

The Russian roulette element is so scary.

 

I don't know actually, my guess is that summer weather gets people out of confined spaces and that should have some impact.

Good point but also gets people into pubs and to also add a miserable wet summer with low temps are the last thing we need then 

"People are not allowed to visit the homes of friends and family – unless it is for care and medical reasons"

Do we assume by that they mean "enter" homes. I mean door step drop offs to nearby family members are no more a risk than any other delivery or the allowable meeting of an outside family member in a park or playing golf, surely?

From the start, when I've done shopping for my parents (generally twice a week), I've taken it into their house and we've chatted - at +2m distance - for 15-30 mins. On occasion, the kids have accompanied me.

Most weeks, they've also visited our house once a week and parked up. My dad gets out of his car ad stands, my mum stays in sat down. We all maintain a safe distance and have a chat. The last 3 weeks, my dad has also come to collect our dog and take it back to theirs for a few hours.

Last Friday when they visited, I suggested they come through to the back garden and we all spent a good hour chatting - again, all at safe distance. My dad had a pint and my mum a cuppa. 

I know some of the above is, strictly speaking, against the 'rules' and it will nudge up the risk factor - although from nil to negligible. 

There has to be a balance between staying safe and trying to maintain some of the things in life that sustain you emotionally.

Boris has had a very rough PMQs by all accounts.

The virus has perhaps affected him more that he is letting on. His brain is clearly not as sharp as it was, and without the cheering mob of delinquents behind him, his clown act doesn't work. 

He doesn't do serious and he doesn't do detail. He never has. He is the last person you want in charge in a crisis