On the subject of schools re-opening,i personally think June is too early,has anyone thought `outside the box` and suggested the idea of reducing the summer holidays to say just 2 weeks especially for secondary schools, and kids go back during stage 3 of the govts roadmap? This would also give some opportunity for lost education to be caught up with. 

The primary reason for getting primary schools back is for the sake of the economy - so parents are freed up to return to work. Otherwise, they would simply keep schools closed until September.

 

IMO Starmer is a refreshing change in thinking and manner, but Labour has yet to prove itself as a coherent and credible opposition. If he can get them singing from the same hymn sheet they just might come through the CO-19 crisis looking a possible future government. Talking is easy. Now is the moment to show they can do more than carp, moan and whine - a tactic which had them hemorrhaging a pool of traditional Labour voters. Many of these voted Tory at the last election for the first time in their lives.

R.

I think Starmer is playing a shrewd tactical waiting game at the moment. He could have come in all guns blazing and announced himself, but knows then more focus would be put on him and his colleagues and one slip up from them sets them back further, if that's possible. He is also stuck at the moment as much favour is still with the PM (despite some of the comments you read on here) and until that changes he has to bide his time. Any bitching and moaning as seen on here would not be favourable at the moment. Also, he knows trying to sort this mess out is a thankless task.

I can see him being more vocal when discussions about the transition extension resume. Kustom Keir will certainly be up for that one!

from the BBC news ticker:

"This year's summer solstice celebrations at Stonehenge in southern England have been cancelled because of the ban on mass gatherings prompted by the coronavirus.

Traditionally about 10,000 people gather at the Neolithic monument in Wiltshire, on or around 21 June, to mark midsummer.

English Heritage said it was cancelling the event "for the safety and wellbeing of attendees, volunteers and staff".

Good luck with that one police. I suspect many of those that attend this 'just don't get it'.

Yesterday Valance said antibody testing has been taking place in the UK. The results suggest the infection rates are:

London 10%

The rest of the UK 4%

Assuming the UK's population is 66,650000, London's is 8,982000 and there have been 50000 C19 deaths in the UK. 

Total number of infections: (London 898200, Rest of UK 2306720) 320492

Total number of deaths: 50000

Mortality rate: (100/3204920) * 50000 = 1.56%

Ouch! That's utterly horrendous. No wonder people are so scared. It's early in the morning so my calculation must be wrong. Please correct me.  

 

The last election was the first in my life where I didn't seriously consider voting Conservative. That had nothing to do with my view of Labour. I voted independent. 

How's his gardening business going?

 

I can see him being more vocal when discussions about the transition extension resume. Kustom Keir will certainly be up for that one!

 

Not according to The Times - take a look at my post in the EU thread.

 

Not according to The Times - take a look at my post in the EU thread.

Wow! Surprised by that. I thought he would be kicking and screaming still.

On topic, while we are not there yet my feeling is this morning things are clearer after most questions answered. It feels just the same after the stay at home rules, new instructions to digest, questions asked but a general understanding is occurring as they absorb. 

I think that the word adapt has been very important throughout all this. It's what humans have had to do through history to survive.

 

Mortality rate: (100/3204920) * 50000 = 1.56%

Ouch! That's utterly horrendous. No wonder people are so scared. It's early in the morning so my calculation must be wrong. Please correct me.  

 

Early on, my own private mensuration suggested that the death rate was between one and two percent. I'm not at all surprised by the 1.56% figure.

Yesterday Valance said antibody testing has been taking place in the UK. The results suggest the infection rates are:

London 10%

The rest of the UK 4%

 

Chimes with what Fauci is saying in America. New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and a few other states may have got up to 20% infection, but all others are less than 5%. So that's still a huge reservoir of potential hosts

He used a baseball analogy - "We are only in the second play of a nine innings ball game"

Johnson and Trump have taken huge gambles by lifting lockdown so early. Its possible the summer heat and UV will  naturally suppress the virus until the Autumn, but they are literally playing with peoples' lives

Johnson has spent his life gambling and getting away with it - both personally and professionally. From his adultery, to his opportunistic backing of Vote Leave. 

His premiership will be determined by what happens in the next few months. If infection rates drop, then his gamble would have paid off and he will be lauded by the usual suspects as the second coming of Churchill. 

But if cases rise and we have to go back into lockdown, then even his most slavish cheerleaders and sycophants in the media will struggle to protect him

Yesterday Valance said antibody testing has been taking place in the UK. The results suggest the infection rates are:

London 10%

The rest of the UK 4%

Assuming the UK's population is 66,650000, London's is 8,982000 and there have been 50000 C19 deaths in the UK. 

Total number of infections: (London 898200, Rest of UK 2306720) 320492

Total number of deaths: 50000

Mortality rate: (100/3204920) * 50000 = 1.56%

Ouch! That's utterly horrendous. No wonder people are so scared. It's early in the morning so my calculation must be wrong. Please correct me.  

 

No, your calculation is fine - assuming the 4% and 10% are accurate.

The CFR was said, from early on in this pandemic, to be around 1-2% so this isn’t that surprising and explains the need for the controls.

No doubt it’s completely different on the North Yorks Moors, where it’s a trivial illness that doesn’t merit the efforts and restrictions.

 

Early on, my own private mensuration suggested that the death rate was between one and two percent. I'm not at all surprised by the 1.56% figure.

It's utterly horrendous if correct. I don't know how Vallance can reconcile the figures he discussed yesterday with a death rate of ~0.2% which the UK government had been suggested. If the UK infection rate figures are correct it would appear University of Hong Kong is pretty much spot on.

University of Hong Kong researchers put Covid-19 mortality rate at 1.4 per cent

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074015/university-hong-kong-researchers-put-covid-19  

Unless 1) a vaccine or therapeutic treatment is quickly developed 2) the UK infection rate stats are garbage 3) there is something we don't yet understand about transmission deaths in the UK could exceed 1 million. Utterly horrendous prospect.

 

Mortality rate: (100/3204920) * 50000 = 1.56%

Ouch! That's utterly horrendous. No wonder people are so scared. It's early in the morning so my calculation must be wrong. Please correct me.  

 

That's part of the story. Deathrates are near zero for the under 45s, a couple of percent for the 45-65 crowd, then much higher above that. The BBC shows the data in a slightly different way:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692

It may well be in the absense of a vaccine that younger workers (40, 45, 50) end up going back, with the over 65s essentially being shielded in the same way the vulnerable are now. Who knows, though!

 

That's part of the story. Deathrates are near zero for the under 45s, a couple of percent for the 45-65 crowd, then much higher above that. The BBC shows the data in a slightly different way:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692

 

As a member of the 45 to 65 crowd that does not sound reassuring. Not at all! I doubt most of us in that age group have lived in the knowledge that we have a 2% chance of croaking imminently.  

Have you even bothered to look at the Shadow Cabinet and NEC? Corbynites have been purged and Jenny Formby has resigned as Chair.

Labour is now back to what it was pre-Corbyn, but perhaps the right wing papers you read feed you with lies

 

Have you looked at the tense in which my sentence is written, Beast? I wrote:

"The question now is whether electors would rather have had Corbyn's Labour rump handling the present crisis? i.e. Pre-Starmer compared with the Tories. Please get it right. That is my question now. We don't yet know what the "Starmocracy" of Labour will turn out to be, short term or longer." That may well be my question later. Small. Far away. Small. Far away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMiKyfd6hA0

You have no reason whatsoever for making any assumption about my politics as I don't do politics, but I vote for whoever seems a decent, sound, fair-minded local candidate at every election - which I have to tell you has included a range of parties. You should think of standing.

R.

Yesterday Valance said antibody testing has been taking place in the UK. The results suggest the infection rates are:

London 10%

The rest of the UK 4%

Assuming the UK's population is 66,650000, London's is 8,982000 and there have been 50000 C19 deaths in the UK. 

Total number of infections: (London 898200, Rest of UK 2306720) 320492

Total number of deaths: 50000

Mortality rate: (100/3204920) * 50000 = 1.56%

Ouch! That's utterly horrendous. No wonder people are so scared. It's early in the morning so my calculation must be wrong. Please correct me.  

 

Other countries that have tried to measure this general infection rate have come up with figures between 0.5% and 1% so yours would be classed as unusually high but still in the right ball park

You are not using the "official" number of deaths due to CO-19 which is around 32000 IIRC and that would bring your rate to just about 1% and within the range of other country's measurements

Of course for the over 75's the risk is very much higher than that

As a member of the 45 to 65 crowd that does not sound reassuring. Not at all! I doubt most of us in that age group have lived in the knowledge that we have a 2% chance of croaking imminently.  

Lies, damned lies and statistics!

The figures even in that band will be heavily skewed to the 65s, and those with underlying conditions.

If you are closer to 45 than 65 (as you are), and if you are healthy then you'll be at much less than a 2% risk of dying.

 

Other countries that have tried to measure this general infection rate have come up with figures between 0.5% and 1% so yours would be classed as unusually high but still in the right ball park

You are not using the "official" number of deaths due to CO-19 which is around 32000 IIRC and that would bring your rate to just about 1% and within the range of other country's measurements

Of course for the over 75's the risk is very much higher than that

True but if I peg it my main concern won't be whether or not I am official. 

The precise number of deaths so far in the UK is not known and the same is true in other countries. However, I think my 50,000 was a reasonable number to use in the calculation and would have been valid a few weeks ago even if that is when Vallance's infection rate figures are valid. It would probably (finger in air) be better to give a predicted mortality range based on uncertainties. Based on this data perhaps we'd go for 1.2% to 2%. Utterly horrific regardless of how the cake is cut. The 50,000 deaths in the UK so far aren't even the entrée. They are the amuse-bouch.

 

As a member of the 45 to 65 crowd that does not sound reassuring. Not at all! I doubt most of us in that age group have lived in the knowledge that we have a 2% chance of croaking imminently.  

Except you don’t unless you have an underlying condition that puts you at risk? Sorry if you do......

 True but if I peg it my main concern won't be whether or not I am official. 

Our main concern would be that you'd have steps in place to keep TWO forums running.

Always instructive to see what other countries are doing:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-france-eases-lockdown-as-macron-comes-under-fire-qb20r0dbt

"Primary schools will start to reopen in France today, with about half of teachers and a fifth of pupils present amid fears over coronavirus infections and widespread resistance from families and teaching staff to the resumption of lessons.

Jean-Michel Blanquer, the education minister, sought to overcome that by telling parents that their children would be safer at school than at home, a claim that was met with widespread incredulity.

Mr Blanquer was speaking as the lockdown imposed on March 17 was eased more generally yesterday, with small shops and businesses allowed to open and people authorised to travel up to 60 miles from their homes.

...

In practice, however, the relaunch is faltering. Although 86 per cent of France’s primary schools will reopen this week, Mr Blanquer admitted that only about 1.5 million of their 6.7 million pupils would be present.

This is partly because of new government safety guidelines, outlined in a 63-page booklet, that impose a maximum class size of 15 and a distance of at least one metre between children, making it impossible for schools to take back all their pupils at the same time.

..."