Yes, John. I fear you are correct. There will be be a second spike in a fortnight to three weeks. All totally avoidable and catastrophic both for society and 'the economy'.

This is English exceptionalism at its most tragic.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

 

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These silly VE Day 'celebrations' are the death knell of 'lockdown'.

Cretins having street parties as an excuse to get p*ssed with other people again.

I fully expect to see a spike in cases, hospitalisations and deaths in 2-3 weeks.

I just hope there isn't a scaling back of the relaxation of restrictions that help the economy.

Saving lives should be the priority, followed by keeping as many parts of the economy functioning as possible. 

People having a p*ss-up that trivialises a catastrophic world war should be way, way down the pecking order. 

Sadly, our nationalist right-wing media have fanned the nationalist flames for such celebrations (encouraging neighbourly get-togethers and printing stupid posters), and our nationalist, right-wing government seems happy to sit back and reap the nationalist harvest Regardless of the consequences.

 

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Regional data for new cases today in England

The 7 English regions 

• London +124 (0.5%) 25,623


• Midlands +302 (1.4%) 22,045


• North West +263 (1.2% )21,863


• North East and Yorkshire +381 (1.8%) 20,774


• South East +236 (1.2%) 18,932


• East of England +224 (1.9%) 11,856


• South West +82 (1.2%) 6,907

The 10 local areas with the highest cases

1. Kent +82 (2.0%) 4,050


2. Lancashire +38 (1.2%) 3,093


3. Birmingham +49 (1.6%) 3,060


4. Hampshire +10 (0.3%) 2,979


5. Essex +35 (1.2%) 2,813


6. Surrey +27 (1.0%) 2,720


7. Hertfordshire +21 (0.8%) 2,488


8. Sheffield +21 (0.9%) 2,327


9. Cumbria +15 (0.7%) 2,062


10. Staffordshire +32 (1.7%) 1,934

The 10 local areas with the lowest cases

1. Rutland 24 - No change


2. North East Lincolnshire 138 - No change


3. Isle of Wight +3 (2.0%) 152


4. Torbay 209 - No change


5. Bath and North East Somerset 220 - No change


6. Bracknell Forest +2 (0.9%) 228


7. Hartlepool +4 (1.7%) 230


8. Windsor and Maidenhead +2 (0.7%) 270


9. Calderdale +8 (3.0%) 270


10. North Somerset +11 (3.8%) 287

Cannot help but feel that the Kent figures are skewed because of those arriving on a fairly frequent basis from the migrant camps near Calais. It is well known that those camps are centres of contagion and every migrant picked up by the border force is tested as a matter of routine.

 

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Not sure on the treatment I have asked Mum 

Just had a conversation with her about the food deliveries my Uncle and Aunt were getting , they were washing all packaging BUT the carrier bags they folded up and put away …………….My money is firmly on that now 

That would be a spectacularly unlucky transmission IMO. 

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Do you know what ………….totally agree , debt or thousands more dead ?????? erm ?

. We have had a rather heated discussion about this tonight. Hubby is HE road inspector, and as such, he is continuing on salary, albeit working from home. (This is driving me crazy incidentally, have decided that he needn’t consider retiring 😂).  I am 61, diabetic and have heart disease ( misspent youth, but I had fun).  I have been at home since the week before the official lockdown started, and I am beginning to struggle. He is quite happy, as he is out at work 2/3 times a week, but I’m not.  I said that if a vaccine is not able to be developed, then what do I do? I said I would go out as the quality of life in a permanent semi lockdown situation would be untenable and I would rather have a shorter life and enjoy it. This ended in a row so I am just pinning my hopes on a vaccination being successful. Family is spread out, 2 in UK and one in Germany so getting all of us together is a rarity but am so missing the grandkids. When we do see them, can I hug them? Who knows. 

On the other hand, no 1 son is self employed and struggling financially, so I see the need to go back to “normal”, no 2 sons partner travels extensively in Europe and the US, he doesn’t even know what is going to to happen with his job, at least they are financially secure for a while. No 3 son is in Germany, well paid but furloughed, but again, doesn’t know how his job will go as he works for Mercedes. He rents his flat, as do most Germans, but he has nothing to come back to here. 

So, do we carry on a lockdown of sorts, let rip, or what? If it stays the same, there will be huge financial hardship, if we let it all go, there will be a huge amount of deaths. Where do we actually go from here?

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https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

 

As it notes:

"...having economic interruptions which last for several weeks is a historically validated response strategy that is as old as history. A short, hard lockdown saves both the economy and the health of the population. If the lockdown is not doing the job very well, and new cases will not slow down, the strategy would be to strengthen the lockdown, rather than lift it.

The price a country pays for reopening too early can be incredibly high. Massive amounts of deaths, a collapsed healthcare system, and having multiple lockdowns would cause massive amounts of damage, and must be avoided."

 

At least it looks as if the easing will be very gradual but like others I fear another tightening up in a few weeks' time, if only because we haven't got the R number down far enough below 1, so there's precious little room for manoeuvre.

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That would be a spectacularly unlucky transmission IMO. 

Oh incredibly , its either that or mowing the lawn and someone had a brief natter ? 

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Coronavirus 'largely gone out' of UK population outside hospitals and care homes, professor claims https://t.co/StSdk2jMtP

— SkyNews (@SkyNews) May 8, 2020

 

Oh incredibly , its either that or mowing the lawn and someone had a brief natter ? 

So scary mate 😞 , you can only be so careful without going OTT and totally crackers! Hopefully that kind of transmission is rare. Best wishes to him. :) 

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Coronavirus 'largely gone out' of UK population outside hospitals and care homes, professor claims https://t.co/StSdk2jMtP

— SkyNews (@SkyNews) May 8, 2020

Again I would ask why extensive antibody testing isn't being done in the UK? 

May 8 (Reuters) - Abbott Laboratories’ antibody test for the new coronavirus is highly likely to correctly determine whether people have ever been infected with the fast-spreading virus, the company said, citing a U.S. study.

Researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine found Abbott’s test had a specificity rate of 99.9% and a sensitivity rate of 100%, suggesting very few chances of incorrectly diagnosing a healthy person with the infection and no false negatives. [source: Reuters]

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. We have had a rather heated discussion about this tonight. Hubby is HE road inspector, and as such, he is continuing on salary, albeit working from home. (This is driving me crazy incidentally, have decided that he needn’t consider retiring 😂).  I am 61, diabetic and have heart disease ( misspent youth, but I had fun).  I have been at home since the week before the official lockdown started, and I am beginning to struggle. He is quite happy, as he is out at work 2/3 times a week, but I’m not.  I said that if a vaccine is not able to be developed, then what do I do? I said I would go out as the quality of life in a permanent semi lockdown situation would be untenable and I would rather have a shorter life and enjoy it. This ended in a row so I am just pinning my hopes on a vaccination being successful. Family is spread out, 2 in UK and one in Germany so getting all of us together is a rarity but am so missing the grandkids. When we do see them, can I hug them? Who knows. 

On the other hand, no 1 son is self employed and struggling financially, so I see the need to go back to “normal”, no 2 sons partner travels extensively in Europe and the US, he doesn’t even know what is going to to happen with his job, at least they are financially secure for a while. No 3 son is in Germany, well paid but furloughed, but again, doesn’t know how his job will go as he works for Mercedes. He rents his flat, as do most Germans, but he has nothing to come back to here. 

So, do we carry on a lockdown of sorts, let rip, or what? If it stays the same, there will be huge financial hardship, if we let it all go, there will be a huge amount of deaths. Where do we actually go from here?

Great post and sorry to hear you’re starting to struggle a bit. You’re like so many others and I completely sympathise with your position and argument. 

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Again I would ask why extensive antibody testing isn't being done in the UK? 

May 8 (Reuters) - Abbott Laboratories’ antibody test for the new coronavirus is highly likely to correctly determine whether people have ever been infected with the fast-spreading virus, the company said, citing a U.S. study.

Researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine found Abbott’s test had a specificity rate of 99.9% and a sensitivity rate of 100%, suggesting very few chances of incorrectly diagnosing a healthy person with the infection and no false negatives. [source: Reuters]

 

A bit leftfield, but perhaps the Government doesn't want a two-tier population: one chunk having had CV19 and believing themselves to be immune and able to live life normally; the rest still needing to keep adhering to restrictions. 

 

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A bit leftfield, but perhaps the Government doesn't want a two-tier population: one chunk having had CV19 and believing themselves to be immune and able to live life normally; the rest still needing to keep adhering to restrictions. 

I suppose that is possible. However, I think everyone has the "right" to know approximately what percentage of the population has been infected with corona virus.

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Parties still going on in the street ffs.

Isn’t it ironic that 75 years on, VE Day will cost us our freedom when we inevitably have to go in to ‘proper’ lockdown.

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He isn't at the minute but my Aunt said his voice was so frail - almost a struggle .

No , that's the thing , no one has a bloody clue , my money is on mowing the front lawn .

Food deliveries have all been left on the door step.

Its quite frightening really , people think they have everything covered then bang!

They really, really need to spend a lot of energy on finding out how people like him are getting it. It just should't be happening and until they do they are not going to get the infection numbers down low enough.

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Well, it appears to me that the full lockdown is over in any case, judging from the amount of traffic on the road outside our house today. Our neighbours had family visitors today for the first time since the lockdown started too. I reckon the full lockdown is fraying at the edges, but the pubs and restaurants are still closed, so that must curtail a fair amount of social activity.

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Coronavirus 'largely gone out' of UK population outside hospitals and care homes, professor claims https://t.co/StSdk2jMtP

— SkyNews (@SkyNews) May 8, 2020

Another irresponsible story imo.
I guess Gooner’s uncle must be even more unfortunate in that case.  

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You display the trended death rate on here every day

It has to be looked at as a 7 day average to counter the weekend effect but it seems to be declining but very slowly

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=BEL+FRA+DEU+ITA+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA

 

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A bit leftfield, but perhaps the Government doesn't want a two-tier population: one chunk having had CV19 and believing themselves to be immune and able to live life normally; the rest still needing to keep adhering to restrictions. 

 

I don't think the government has a problem with a 2 tier population but it wouldn't label them that way.

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