Not a new idea. I remember talking to my mother-in-law about this suggestion, then new to me, and that must have been 15 years ago.

My mother was also familiar with this concept. When I was a child I recall a stock phrase she would trot out after the weather had been dry for a long spell: "Once it [the rain] starts it won't know when to stop!"  I realised only later that she was invariably right - notably after the summer of '76.

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No mega Northerly now for the weekend,some stupid tiny low develops near greenland which breaks the high pressure and allows lows from the Atlantic to merge with it.

Just can never get a sustained cold spell in the u.k.,back to normal dross again soon after.
Still I saw a snowflake Sunday first in 14 months,yipee

 

.................It is spring.

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Some very warm air in nearby Continent for week 2 so hope for fine weather continuing. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Fairly dry too, though some rain in the west http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 The blue over S Norway disappears for the first time since October - they've had a long cold winter with temps below average for most of the time, curiously unlike us or much of the rest of Scandinavia.

Here and now, GFS has HP dominating for the next two weeks, troughs occasionally brushing the far NW (today, Fri 10th Wed 15th). The trough on Fri 10th, like yesterday but more weakly, also drifts further S briefly on the following day, Sat 11th. Lower pressure over France at end of run on Sat 18th.

ECM differs from Sat 11th with HP over Scotland on that day eventually ridging to Iceland and some cooler air drifting down the N sea and then from the east over S England.

GEFS runs make more of a breakdown on Sat 11th. Warm Sun 5th, cool Tue 7th, warm Fri 10th, cool again with rain Sat 11th, then the scatter takes over with most runs going for mild and a little rain from time to time.

Yes David, for here anyway after a wet start to the year things are drying out nicely in the garden and the suggestion is we won't see too much rain in the next two weeks either.

I think gardens will at least offer 'another place' to go to during the day while we are in lockdown, so these areas are more important to us as we get through this.

Jetstream briefly across UK on Mon but not much in evidence for the rest of the week. It fires up again Sun 12th to N of UK with a trail down the N Sea and then breaks up into loops from Fri 17th with cut-off circulation developing to SW of Britain 

GFS after trough tomorrow (Mon), is dominated by HP this week with tendency to ridge N-wards; brief breakdown on Sat 11th with shallow trough over Scotland; HP then re-develops from the S with W-ly or SW-ly winds at first, then HP centre moving NE-wards and by Thu 16th is over Norway with SE-lies finally far enough away by Mon 20th to allow depression in SW approaches (cf cut-off jet circulation)

ECM similar but breakdown a day later on Sun 12th

GEFS; a little rain in S on Mon and cooler generally; then nearly all runs mild and dry to Mon 13th.

After that there is divergence with the majority of runs for the S above seasonal norm and dry but with one or two spectacularly cold and equally just a few with big rainfall spikes.

Scotland & NE England get a little rain in nearly all runs on the 11th and temps after 13th more evenly balanced between warm and cold.

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Some very useable weather this week, if we could use it!

GFS shows Hp continuing for this week pumping up warm air from the south, Sat 11th's threatened breakdown now only an LP moving N of Scotland but does bring in some colder air behind it.Then more HP moves up from the SW, over the UK by Wed 15th but unlike previous forecasts heads off to Iceland  (not Norway) Tue 21st with cold NE-ly winds developing.

ECM slow to load this morning and the 12z still showing HP over Norway after Sat 11th with LP established in western approaches [Later edit: ECM sticking to its guns with LP over the west of UK Sat/Sun 11th/12th, then the HP establishing over Norway by Wed 15th and the LP finishing up positioned to the SW as before, with mild SE-ly winds -- contrast GFS!]

GEFS for the S consistently mild through to Sun 12th April and good hopes for that continuing through to Fri 17th after which a lot of divergence but probably cooler. Bits and pieces of rain in different ways in different runs. Pattern for Scotland not dissimilar but less agreement between runs, and not so much above seasonal norm and a cluster of runs with rainfall around Sat 11th

[More edit: For 3 or 4 days now I've been noting quite sharp pattern changes around 11th/12th April, bot between and within models. Any qualified meteorologist like to explain? "Sod's Law" does not qualify as an explanation)

 

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....... following the pattern of recent years with long blocks of the same weather type. The UK no longer seems to have "changeable" weather.

Not sure about that. Last Sunday I went out for my permitted walk with the family and we were blasted with snowflakes on a northeast wind. Yesterday we were out for a walk in T-shirts and spent the rest of the day in the garden!

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Not sure about that. Last Sunday I went out for my permitted walk with the family and we were blasted with snowflakes on a northeast wind. Yesterday we were out for a walk in T-shirts and spent the rest of the day in the garden!

I think it's not too much stretching a point to say these were both examples of the 'same type of weather' i.e. a high pressure cell in place over the UK (and sticking around for some weeks) I'd count it different if the weather went zonal and we had a mobile sequence of depressions as was indeed the case throughout most of the 'winter'

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Plenty of high pressure on offer in the outlook. Indeed there are already areas of my garden which have started to crack after being submerged early on this year. Looking a bit drought ridden out there already!

Where are all those April showers?

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Overall picture is continuing mild and dry,http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4, perhaps some rain much later on in the west

GFS synoptics show HP currently over UK weakening by Sat 11th to allow LP to pass close to N of Scotland with brief N-lies before new HP centre from Atlantic parks itself over Scotland 1030mb Tue 14th. Shallow LP then develops to the SW and moves NW across UK Thu 16th only for HP to re-establish itself Mon 20th and continuing to end of run Wed 22nd though with LP continuing to nag away at SW.

ECM still loading so still 12z in later stages - similar to Sat 11th but LP then drops back to SW instead of moving across to Norway

GEFS in S - runs agree  on mild to Sun 12th after which divergence, still mainly on mild side to Fri 17th then mean close to or a little below seasonal norm. Mainly dry but a few isolated runs have big rainfall spikes after 11th.  In Scotland quite good agreement on cool spell around Mon 13th and then mild again to 17th (this pattern appears only on some runs in the S) and a little rain later on but no extremes.

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Plenty of high pressure on offer in the outlook. Indeed there are already areas of my garden which have started to crack after being submerged early on this year. Looking a bit drought ridden out there already!

I can't believe I'm saying this after the drenching winter that we've had, but I could do with a bit of rain for the garden.  The last three weeks have seen the fastest change in soil conditions that I've ever seen, from sodden, saturated, and squelchy to bone dry and cracking thanks to the very drying NE or E winds that we have had.  When I was out on my permitted exercise walk on Sunday I was crossing a field that had been cultivated for sowing, the lumps of soil were like concrete, and the wind was blowing up the fine dusty soil into miniature whirlwinds.

Looking at the GEFS for London, we won't have any this week, but maybe next weekend.

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Where are all those April showers?

 

We had ours yesterday.

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Where are all those April showers?

Looks like they'll be arriving over the weekend.

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All the ingredients of the last few days seem to be still there, but some rearrangements in time and place mean that some people will be disappointed - or cheered up!

GFS 0z- The current HP lasts to Friday when a trough appears over the UK linking the LP to the SW with one north of Scotland (FAX makes a bigger rainfall feature of the S-ly end of this). Eventually the LP sits over the UK and with HP developing from the Atlantic to NW Scotland, there is a spell of cold NE-lies from Easter Monday. We then swing between HP to the south and S-lies (Wed 15th, Fri 24th) and HP to the NW with cold N-lies (notably the weekend of 18th/19th)

ECM similar to start with but on and after the cold spell on Mon 13th only the 12z run has loaded so far, and that keeps the HP over Europe and consequently resuming mild at least to Fri 17th.

GEFS matches the GFS up to the 19th after which no certainty; it doesn't rate the rain in the S this weekend but there is a cluster around the 19th. Similar for Scotland and N England though the uncertainty both in temp and rainfall sets in a couple of days earlier.

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Where was everybody yesterday? Anyway, there seems to be more certainty about models today.

The jetstream continues weak and to the north of the UK until Monday, when it goes into a loop with a strong flow down the N Sea to generate a cut-off low in Biscay. By Thu 16th it is again running N of the Uk, but with some action in the Med. After Sun 19th it fragments, with its energy being directed N and S of the UK. sometimes the N branch stronger, sometimes the S branch..

10-day forecast http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 temps above average for W Europe throughout (Mon looks to be a brief aberration), also dry with some exception for western fringes.

GFS - After a short spell of cold NE-lies on Monday, the HP settles over or just east of the UK for the week to Sun 19th, combining with the LP over Biscay for a run of S/SE-ly winds (the LP occasionally threatens to come closer so showers in the W/SW possible) End of run on Tue 21st still warm but a hint of the first thundery(?) 'Spanish plume' of the season pushing up from the S (but a long way off!)

ECM similar

GEFS different to yesterday, for the S the majority of runs are 3-5C above seasonal norm  (but a few exceptions) through to Thu 23rd after which  a slight cooling; bits and pieces of rain now and then. For the Scotland and the NE, a pronounced dip in temps on Mon 13th, then again above average but not quite as much as in S and less agreement between runs. Plymouth has a few runs with  big rainfall spikes around the 17th

 

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Not much to add David except to say thanks for these daily summaries they are useful and informative.

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10-day outlook still warm and dry for a couple of weeks, but less warm than previously forecast and a lot of rain for France and Spain http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 & http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4, The cold blast on Monday should be no surprise given that most of Scandinavia is still snowbound natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

And the models in detail? GFS has HP moving to NW of Britain by Mon 13th, and LP more developed in SW to give the well-telegraphed cold NE-ly (not that NE coasts aren't getting a foretaste). HP then drifts across the UK and settles over Scandinavia by  Thu 16th and LP from the S affects England for a few days. After that the Scandi HP intensifies for a period of warm(?) SE-lies in the following week until troughs assert themselves over the S by Fri 24th eventually linking to LP over the Atlantic on Sun 26th (replacing yesterday's hint of a Spanish plume)

ECM similar but less convinced about a strong Scandi HP; it's there but weaker and LP approaching the SW from Atlantic on Sun 19th

FAX moves the HP into Europe by Tue 14th, cutting off the NE-ly more quickly than other models

GEFS for the S does not pick up the cold plunge on Mon 13th though it shows a little rain on most runs.. For the N and Scotland  OTOH the dip in temps very noticeable but brief.  Then agreement on mild (v. mild in S) until about Sun 19th, with  a little rain sporadically, after which mean temp of runs declines to average but wide variation. Yesterday's big splashes in the SW no longer in forecast.

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I can't believe I'm saying this after the drenching winter that we've had, but I could do with a bit of rain for the garden.  The last three weeks have seen the fastest change in soil conditions that I've ever seen, from sodden, saturated, and squelchy to bone dry and cracking thanks to the very drying NE or E winds that we have had.  When I was out on my permitted exercise walk on Sunday I was crossing a field that had been cultivated for sowing, the lumps of soil were like concrete, and the wind was blowing up the fine dusty soil into miniature whirlwinds.

Looking at the GEFS for London, we won't have any this week, but maybe next weekend.

Dig down a couple of inches and you find healthily moist earth though. The floods have topped up the saturation levels way higher than normal and 2 weeks of dry isn’t something to berate after 6 months of muck. 
on another note, model output accuracy has not been affected by large wholesale changes due to an almost total lack of flights, due to the slack in tourism. The ultimate litmus test and it’s pretty much business as usual with the output:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

The 10-day forecast looks warmer again today than yesterdays' cool run http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 MetO in fact shows unbroken sunshine for my location on S Coast for a full week.

After Monday's N-ly or E-ly plunge GFS re-establishes HP quickly, first over UK and eventually wandering off to Scandi where it sticks around until end of run on Mon 27th. The UK on the fringes of this has mostly S-ly or Se-ly winds with occasional troughs trying to push up from the south in a rather weak and unconvincing manner (Fri 17th Wed 22nd Sun 26th - showers only? and subject to change?)

ECM slower to develop HP, positions it over N Europe rather than Scandi, trough from the S on Mon 20th (12z forecast at time of posting)

GEFS for the S; a slight dip on Monday then runs agree on mild or even warm through to Fri 24th after which runs begin to differ significantly, and more cooler ones appear. Little bits and pieces of rain from time to time . Scotland and NE have much more of a dip on Monday and slightly more chance of rain later on; Plymouth & S Wales almost no dip  in temp and more chance of rain throughout (but only chance)

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