GEFS has gradually erased the cold uppers in recent days. The world may be coming off the rails but the UK's weather continues as ever!

 

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The last thing we need right now is for winter to start. Let’s hope for some dry sunny days to brighten our days.  

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A heatwave would be good to hopefully dampen down the virus. 

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Jet stream as previously forecast splitting into two but northerly branch ore dominant and closer to Scotland until Thu 28th when the energy goes south and runs through the Med. The last frame Sat 4th shows it returning to UK.

GFS0z has the forecast HP traversing the UK and up to Scandi 1035 mb Sun 22nd and then develops ridge to E Russia over the following week to Sat 28th (yesterday's forecast northerly plunge over central Europe shown on GFS and BBC has gone much further east) and SE winds for UK with occsional embedded troughs for UK in that time. HP then works its way back to Iceland 1030mb Wed 1st with ridge to UK before the Atlantic resumes business as usual on Sat 4th.

ECM generally agrees but has the HP weaker by Thu 26th so not so much occasional embedded troughs as LP settling over UK around Fri 27th

As Brian points out above, GEFS temps flatlining (Plymouth notably so) with fairly good agreement between runs, mild around Tue 24th, cool from Fri 28th, a few rainfall spikes appearing from Mon 30th onwards in the S & E but rather earlier in the N & W

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Is there are weather forum here too?!

 

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Not even the charts can cheer us up! Horrendous 12z ECM with suppressed temperatures and unsettled heading into April.

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On GFS, HP dominates over the next two weeks. First it moves up into Norway then settles down as a ridge from Denmark E-wards Tue 24th with E-ly winds over UK (These cold at first but the extension E-wards cuts off the Arctic flow later). HP weakens by Sat 28th and the UK is under trough from Iceland to Iberia, but this gets pushed aside by HP from Atlantic 1030mb Scotland Wed 1st, which also moves off to the Baltic by Sun 5th with light SW-lies for UK.

ECM similar but trough on Sat 28th is deeper and further east with a distinct run of N-lies for a couple of days.

GEFS cool at first, mild around Tue 24th, mean of runs close to seasonal norm thereafter but with wide divergence by Sat 4th (as much as 10C above to 10C below in the S, op and control on mild side). Odd bits of rain from 1st April, some earlier spikes in north

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Thanks for these daily updates. Always my first look at the weather. Thank you for your clear and concise reading of the charts. V useful for those of us reliant on weather for work.
S

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On the GEFS for London there is a notable lack of rainfall spikes, until April (which can easily change seeing as how far into the future it is).  But no matter what the temperature, At Least It Will Be Dry.

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On the GEFS for London there is a notable lack of rainfall spikes, until April (which can easily change seeing as how far into the future it is).  But no matter what the temperature, At Least It Will Be Dry.

Thank God for that! And if the sun shines it generally won't feel too bad. Lord knows we need a bit of sunshine right now 

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Jetstream now showing close to NW Scotland for first half of week (too close for comfort?) but fragmenting completely by Sat 28th. Then a weaker branch over N Norway and a stronger one close to S Britain in the following week, eventually moving away S-wards by Sat 5t

GFS 0z has present HP moving to Baltic  1040 mb by Tue 24th, ridge to UK with SE winds in S and SW winds in N. A shift in the position of the ridge allow LP from south to drift up over UK Sat 28th, reinforced Wed 1st by HP block over Iceland. After that, the situation is messy, with the UK under a broad col, LP to E & W, HP to N & S.

ECM in general agreement, though shows a stronger link between local LP on Sat 28th with trough extending up to Arctic, could turn out colder that way.

GEFS mild 23rd - 25th, cool 26th - 1st, after that around the seasonal norm with less scatter than yesterday, Very dry to start with except NW Scotland & NI; rainfall spikes start appearing  earlier than yesterday, from 27th in S and 25th in NW but vary between runs and many runs stay dry for longer.

 

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Check out the ECM at 192 hours at the months end !

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GFS 0z much as yesterday, HP settling over Baltic with ridge to UK all the coming week, winds mostly from SE. That HP declines a little Sun 28th allowing elongated trough Svalbard to Italy to bring colder N-lies. After hanging about in a rather uncertain fashion, the trough gives way to HP from Atlantic Wed 1st 1020 mb Wales. Then we get a repeat with HP establishing over Scandi with ridge to UK Sun 5th and at the end of the run, another trough with northerlies, more potent this time (the HP has gone away and parked itself over Iceland)

ECM is rather more certain and shows defined LP with 1000 mb centre in the N Sea Tue 31st but until then agrees with GFS

GEFS mild (+5 C wrt norm) 24th, coldish (-5 C) 29th, mean back to norm on 1st but with quite a lot of divergence from that date (up to +/- 10C), sporadic rainfall from 29th in some runs

Drier for the next two weeks than previously shown on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 (not that there was much rain about anyway, the small patch that was over us has moved off to Denmark)

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That's rather chilly from ECM

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A heatwave would be good to hopefully dampen down the virus. 

That's not proven  the moment

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Should have been here in January 

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Should have been here in January 

Typical! What's the betting this verifies perfectly!!

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Should have been here in January 

I wonder is this could be a sign of the NAO moving from the positive phase it was in right through the winter to a negative one. I seem to recall one or two people back in January predicting that this would happen as we moved into spring.

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I wonder is this could be a sign of the NAO moving from the positive phase it was in right through the winter to a negative one. I seem to recall one or two people back in January predicting that this would happen as we moved into spring.

Including yours truly 🙃☺

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Including yours truly 🙃☺

Yes you did IIRC 

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