BBC monthly outlook
Summary
A stormy weekend with unsettled weather following
_________________________________
Saturday 8 February – Sunday 16 February
A stormy weekend followed by a windy & cooler week
This weekend will start off a bit milder than recent days with a fresher southwest wind bringing in some sub-tropical air from the Atlantic. It will be a mostly dry start to the day with a few showers for western and northern areas, but this is just the calm before the storm. A front will arrive in the late afternoon and evening for Scotland, North England, and western areas bringing heavy rain and an increase in winds.
By Sunday, Storm Ciara will arrive from the west, bringing widespread bands of heavy rain and some very strong winds across the UK. The good news is that the strong jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will push Storm Ciara through quickly. By sunset on Sunday the cold front will clear away from Southeast England, but scattered squally showers are likely to follow behind it.
Winds will ease heading into next week, but this is a relative term here. Monday and Tuesday will still be quite windy very widely, but especially along the southern and western coasts. This will come with a biting westerly wind bringing in some colder air off the North Atlantic, so showers will bring a risk of snow even to low levels for Scotland, Wales, and North England. Possibly even into the Midlands as well, but confidence is lower on this as showers may struggle to get into the Midlands.
Another low pressure system on Thursday will bring some rain more widely, but also some slightly milder air as well so snow chances decrease. A ridge of high pressure on Friday and into Saturday should finally bring a respite from the winds, but its effects will likely be fleeting as things turn unsettled again by Sunday.
Monday 17 February – Sunday 23 February
Changeable weather with some dry spells. Mild
The weather pattern is likely to be unsettled through the final full week of February, but with a slight change from what is expected the previous week. The jet stream, which was very strong when it brought it Storm Ciara, is likely to be a bit weaker and more undulating towards the end of February. What this means is that the weather will be more changeable, with weather fronts mixed with some dry, calm days under high pressure. These features will also tend to be more transient rather than permanent.
The end result is that fronts will often bring some rain and winds to much of the UK, but between frontal systems it will be dry and briefly a bit cooler. High pressure is likely to build into Europe, and as fronts ebb away a ridge of this high pressure will find its way into the UK. This will happen most frequently in the south and east, which western and northern areas being more consistently wet and breezy.
Temperatures are likely to be a bit above average, especially in the south, with perhaps one or two chillier days where the temperature dips to nearer the norm. Occasionally there may be some overnight frosts and there is a slight risk of lowland snow in Scotland on some of these cooler days. Overall confidence in high to medium with some strong signals for the forecast models. There is high confidence that we will not see any significant cold outbreaks.
Monday 24 February – Sunday 8 March
Unsettled, but turning calmer later in March.
The tail end of February and first week of March look to follow along much where mid-February leaves off; unsettled, changeable weather with some dry spells at times. However, a gradual change is expected as we head into March, with high pressure in Europe likely to become stronger and more influential here in the UK.
This means that as February ends and March begins, the dry spells in the southern and eastern parts of the country will tend to become the norm, rather than occasional features. Fronts will have a harder time reaching the southeast, and rainy and windy spells will become fewer and further between. Things will likely stay wet and windy for northern areas, but western England and Wales will likely dry out too.
As the high pressure become the more dominant weather pattern across northwest Europe, the warmer, sub-tropical air from the southwest will be cut off. This will mean that temperatures will likely be a bit less mild than in the middle of February, but likely still slightly above average. Under clearer skies and calmer winds with high pressure around, there is a stronger likelihood that we will see some frosty mornings.
Confidence is medium for this week as we start to see some differences in how strong certain forecast models what to make the high pressure. There is a chance that things may stay a bit more unsettled and milder, but only a small chance at the moment.
Further ahead
In the wake of Storm Ciara we will look that the impacts to the weather pattern as see if we can lock down the strength of high pressure heading into March.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook