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idj20
06 February 2020 16:57:39

Joys of my well manicured and firmed up cotoneaster hedge that can easily flex in the strongest wind and still stay in one piece.   Anyone putting up 6 ft panel fences around here at my coastal location are just asking for it.


Folkestone Harbour. 
idj20
06 February 2020 17:00:38

Back to about Sunday's winds, GFS now has 76 mph gusts at around mid-afternoon for my neck of the woods.  Still, at least it looking like a


day time event where I can watch it unfold in daylight rather than being kept awake all night by howling and banging in the dark.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
06 February 2020 17:09:32


 rather than being kept awake all night by howling and banging in the dark.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Newlywed neighbours?


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2020 17:27:32

latest GFS 12z still has plenty of 70 to 80mph gusts for most of England for Sunday 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Stormchaser
06 February 2020 17:29:19

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1225466951067152387


Looking very ugly for the S half of England during Sunday daytime.


With those winds and the heavy rain, I imagine it'll be looking as wild as it ever has since the Burns Day storm of 1990.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
idj20
06 February 2020 17:40:49


 


 


Newlywed neighbours?


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Naa, more like the local drunks. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2020 18:38:32

ECM also has 70 to 80 mph gusts on Sunday for most of the country. definitely a Amber warning if verified maybe even red. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bugglesgate
06 February 2020 20:38:27


 


I put my garden fence up 15 years ago and the wooden posts are coming to the end of their life. Several have rotted through and I've been gradually replacing them, but I have at least three that need doing. Hopefully my system of props will hold up for the coming week or two - the last post I replaced took about two hours of digging/smashing as I didn't hold back on the concrete when I installed them originally 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Did a few posts  about 3 years ago.   The balls of concrete were complete b*stards to dig out.   I smashed them up with a sledge hammer and bunged  some in the wheelie bin   but overdid   it and they refused to take it due to the weight.  Took 2 months to "filter" them all away gradually a few lumps at a time !


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
cultman1
06 February 2020 20:41:58

I am surprised that the weather warnings are not being upgraded as a potential major storm event this coming Sunday. Stormchaser for example implies this could be construed to be a rare weather event for the south of England and I for one have cancelled my travel arrangements locally from London to Berkshire due to the severity of the forecast. However I do wonder whether this storm may be downgraded nearer the time by the Met Office due to fluctuations in local weather conditions or alternatively we are really in for a bumpy ride for at least 12 hours from early Sunday morning onwards. However the Met Office continue to offer an amber weather warning nonetheless.

SJV
06 February 2020 20:42:34


ECM also has 70 to 80 mph gusts on Sunday for most of the country. definitely a Amber warning if verified maybe even red. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes I had a look on the weather.us site and it was showing a mean gust of 70mph on Sunday here in Sheffield with the operational a little higher! Hopefully it is over-estimating the max gusts 

Stewart
06 February 2020 20:47:58
What are the chances I'll get some dinghy sailing in on Sunday? Slim I'd think.. Best go make sure the boat is well tied down

Stewart
Southmoor or Harwell, Oxfordshire
Rob K
06 February 2020 21:45:59


 


Did a few posts  about 3 years ago.   The balls of concrete were complete b*stards to dig out.   I smashed them up with a sledge hammer and bunged  some in the wheelie bin   but overdid   it and they refused to take it due to the weight.  Took 2 months to "filter" them all away gradually a few lumps at a time !


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


You need to smash em up smaller and drop them down your trouser leg while out for a walk, like in The Great Escape.


Anyway back to the winds and the high-res output seems to be going for max gusts in the 100-120kph range across most of inland southern England, so 62-75mph ish. Pretty strong stuff.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
06 February 2020 21:47:20

Thinking that’s a shade over done James, around 65mph for London at its peak good agreement across the set.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=13&sort=0


ps small 965 12z short wave Perhaps Phenomenal sea height and swell for n/w 


 



https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1225466951067152387


Looking very ugly for the S half of England during Sunday daytime.


With those winds and the heavy rain, I imagine it'll be looking as wild as it ever has since the Burns Day storm of 1990.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

nsrobins
06 February 2020 22:15:02


I am surprised that the weather warnings are not being upgraded as a potential major storm event this coming Sunday. Stormchaser for example implies this could be construed to be a rare weather event for the south of England and I for one have cancelled my travel arrangements locally from London to Berkshire due to the severity of the forecast. However I do wonder whether this storm may be downgraded nearer the time by the Met Office due to fluctuations in local weather conditions or alternatively we are really in for a bumpy ride for at least 12 hours from early Sunday morning onwards. However the Met Office continue to offer an amber weather warning nonetheless.


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


’Amber’? Not quite yet unless you can predict tomorrow’s update 😉


I’ve issued a ‘blanket’ warning for my area for Sunday especially but as of now it’s difficult to put too much detail except it’s going to be very windy. We won’t know until 24hrs out what the max gusts are likely to be, and where and when, but I’ll be advising against doing too much travelling Sunday whatever happens.


 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
noodle doodle
06 February 2020 22:29:44

Hello, is this the fence site?

My fence on one side has completely disintegrated over the winter. Some panels are now just piles of thin planking. The neighbour is being picky about replacement costs cos we want a hit'n'miss fence to stop it getting blown over and the builders we had to do our extension have now disappeared for the winter :-@

One tip they did give was when they redo a fence they stick new posts in half way between the old posts - saves digging out the old concrete, though I guess you have to chop a panel or two if you do panels.

idj20
06 February 2020 23:35:37

I'm noticing a gradual uptick in Sunday mid-afternoon wind speeds for my neck of the wood on both GFS and ECM where they now stand at 51 mph with 80 mph gusts. Mind you, that is for Langdon Bay which is high ground and well exposed to the channel, still looking bloody awful overall though.

There's also a chance of further nasty "mesoscale" gusty stuff associated with troughs embedded in the westerly airflow on Monday but those are much harder to forecast due to their localised nature.

Oh well, it's been a lovely day today where I broke out the lawn mower and I still can feel my rosy cheeks from the early afternoon sun, not unlike the Autumn of 2013/14 where it was relentless wind and rain from end to end. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
07 February 2020 04:49:47

GFS has continued to ramp up the winds down here over its past few runs, now with 71mph gusts IMBY on Sunday afternoon. With gusts that high, there would probably be power cuts, transport chaos locally* and possibly structural damage to the roof, not something I fancy much.

OTOH, the Met Office has 61mph gusts as a max and has been consistent with that over its past few runs. I'm hoping the Met Office forecast is closer to the mark!

* The main bridge to the Isle would be closed and the old bridge - the only other route - has traffic lights. No, I won't be going anywhere on Sunday!


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 February 2020 06:36:15



OTOH, the Met Office has 61mph gusts as a max and has been consistent with that over its past few runs. I'm hoping the Met Office forecast is closer to the mark!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, MetO is at the lower end of forecasts but even so they did a major revision yesterday and upped the wind speed gusts predicted here from 45mph to 63mph  - and they've thrown in yellow warnings for rain in various western parts.


Gusts for Chichester running close to 40mph all the way to Thursday with another peak on Thu morning early, so problems aren't going away anytime soon


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
07 February 2020 07:18:58

ECM really ramping up the Sunday storm can't ever remember such a huge area of the UK having such damaging gusts. North Wales has the peak at a 106 mph . Many other areas have 70 to 85 mph crazy.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
07 February 2020 07:58:30

ECM 0z ensemble gusts for London. (15:00hrs Sunday)


Mean equates to gusts of 69 mph.


Some worrying options on offer.


No photo description available.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Phil G
07 February 2020 08:52:17


ECM 0z ensemble gusts for London. (15:00hrs Sunday)


Mean equates to gusts of 69 mph.


Some worrying options on offer.


No photo description available.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yes Steve. Things appeared to have ramped up further for Sunday. This thing isn't going to last for a few hours either, the whole day will be casting up strong winds. The landscape will look quite different for some on Monday where strong winds persist, and into Tuesday. Any clean ups/repairing won't be possible until Wednesday perhaps.

Retron
07 February 2020 10:14:05

Amber warning now issued for the far SE.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Stormchaser
07 February 2020 10:29:07

ARPEGE tends to overdo the wind gusts a bit, but it shows what I'm seeing in many models this morning: a belt of strongest winds racing across the southern half of England during the middle part of the day.


Intriguingly, I can't see any distinct organisation of rain rates with it and it's a bit out of alignment with the cold front. I wonder if gravity waves come into this? Not an area I'm very familiar with, to be honest.



If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
07 February 2020 10:29:39


Amber warning now issued for the far SE.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Strange that it's only the SE, when other places (per GFS at any rate) have stronger mean and gust speeds, for longer. I'm thinking N then S  Wales, parts of NW England & SW Scotland.


I say strange...  


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
nsrobins
07 February 2020 10:40:09


 


 


Strange that it's only the SE, when other places (per GFS at any rate) have stronger mean and gust speeds, for longer. I'm thinking N then S  Wales, parts of NW England & SW Scotland.


I say strange...  


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


There are more on the way 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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