BBC monthly outlook
A change to drier and less breezy weather
Wednesday 16 October – Sunday 20 October
Breezy at times with showers and rain
The recent unsettled theme to the weather looks continuing this week. Wednesday will see outbreaks of rain clearing north-eastwards, leaving much of the UK with drier and brighter weather in the afternoon. Temperatures will be mainly near to the seasonal average. Thursday and Friday then look to be showery and cool as low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. The showers are likely to be most frequent and heavy over southern and western areas of England together with Wales where one or two thunderstorms could be mixed-in. The showers could be heavy enough to cause some local surface flooding. Further north and east across the country, there will also be showers but with some sunshine at times as well.
On Friday, southern counties of England will also have the threat of some strong and gusty south-westerly winds. The showery weather is likely to persist into this weekend. Again, some of the showers could be heavy and thundery, particularly near to southern and western coasts of England and Wales. There should also be sunshine at times. It is likely to be rather cool, perhaps turning chilly in the north on Sunday night.
Monday 21 October – Sunday 27 October
Changeable. Some rain interspersed with drier days
By the early part of next week, much of the British Isles should be drier as low pressure moves away towards southern Europe. However, it will be rather cool and Monday night could be quite cold in places with local frost and fog. Through the middle part of next week, we should experience a change to milder but cloudier and breezier conditions with southerly winds developing. There should also be some rain, albeit with the greatest chance of rain over western areas of the UK. Late in the week, we could well see another change in the weather. An area of high pressure is expected to move in, bringing drier but possibly cooler conditions, perhaps again with local overnight frost.
Monday 28 October – Sunday 10 November
Drier and calmer than recently
The end of October and early part of November are expected to be drier and calmer than in recent weeks. In recent weeks, low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic have dominated our weather. However, we expect high pressure to extend near to the UK at times through this period while low pressure areas are pushed away further south over Europe. Overall, rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the seasonal average with a lack of strong winds.
However, temperatures look like being often near or even a little above the seasonal average with winds more often from a southerly quarter than the north. Night time mist and fog is likely at times due to the lighter winds. Occasionally, fog could be problematic and be slow to clear during the days. There is a chance, though, that high pressure ends-up much further east than currently expected, which would open the door to wetter and windier weather from the Atlantic. However, if this happens, it would be generally mild.
A change in our weather pattern looks likely through the coming weeks. We will take a look in the next update to see if the somewhat drier and calmer weather could last into mid November.