BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled start, then turning more settled

_________________________________

Saturday 7 September – Sunday 15 September

A fine weekend, then unsettled at times next week

This weekend, most of the UK will have a lot of dry weather thanks to a nose of high pressure extending from the south-west. There will be periods of sunshine, too, although central and southern Britain may see one or two showers on Saturday morning. In the sunshine and with only gentle winds, it will feel quite pleasant for most but some North Sea coasts will have a chilly northerly breeze for a time on Saturday. By Monday the next frontal system will push in from the west, with a cold front bringing rain to most places, with some heavy bursts likely. The air behind the cold front will be from the northern Atlantic and actually a bit warmer than the polar air from the weekend, so temperatures will trend a bit closer to average. There is growing confidence that the remnants of Hurricane Dorian will stay near Iceland through the middle of the week while sending a cold front into the UK from the northwest. Again most places will see some outbreaks of rain. The main forecast uncertainty is regarding the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which is expected to move in around Thursday. There is potential for Gabrielle to bring in some very wet and windy weather on Thursday and into Friday, mainly for the northwest, but confidence is very low on this. Later on Friday and into the next weekend, high pressure looks increasingly likely to build in from the southwest, making for milder, calmer and drier weather for the weekend.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 22 September

Mostly dry and settled weather across the country

The high pressure that builds in over the weekend of the 14th and 15th will tend to become a more persistent feature heading into late-September, keeping things drier, calmer, and a bit warmer than normal. Low pressure tracks will likely be pushed off to the north closer to Iceland. The warmest air will likely remain locked in the Continent, but temperatures should climb to slightly above average for mid-to-late September for most places. However, early in the week there may be a few weak fronts that reach into Scotland and Northern Ireland as the high shifts slightly eastwards. The southern half of the UK should stay fine and dry though.

There is a chance that high pressure will tend to remain a bit further south and closer to Central Europe, allowing frontal systems to keep the northern and western parts of the UK wetter and windier, but this is only a small probability. September is the peak month for Atlantic hurricane activity, and although a hurricane directly impacting the UK is unlikely, we can still feel their effects as they alter the weather patterns in the northern Atlantic. This means that although there are good signals for high pressure now, confidence is perhaps a bit lower than normal as any strong hurricanes that develop can disrupt our settled weather, even from thousands of miles away!

Monday 23 September – Sunday 6 October

A pattern shift to more unsettled conditions

The high pressure area is expected to stick around for much of the rest of September, keeping things fine and dry for most of the UK. Heading into late September it looks like low pressure will begin to establish itself over Scandinavia with the high pressure centre shifting slightly northwest. This will mean occasional weak fronts may reach in from the north or northwest, and temperatures may cool slightly to be nearer to or a touch below average, especially in the north. A significant pattern shift is looking likely in October, with high pressure shifting further away from the UK allowing low pressure tracks to return from the north and west.

This will bring in more unsettled, wet and windy weather with large day-to-day variations more typical of October. There is some uncertainty on where high pressure may retreat to, and it is still expected to be nearby at times. This will mean that between the fronts, there will likely be one or two days of drier and more settled weather. Milder air drawn in from the southwest ahead of frontal systems will make for more changeable temperatures with some chilly days mixed in with some milder ones. Hurricane activity will still be at its peak until mid-October, so again, there is some inherent uncertainty in the forecast if any strong storms develop in the tropical Atlantic. Confidence is medium for the early October forecast, with a chance that high pressure may cling on for a bit longer before the weather shifts to a more typical autumn pattern.

Further ahead

How will the storms in the Atlantic affect our weather here? And will there be fine weather to end September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 12 Sep - Saturday 21 Sep

On Thursday, there will be wet and windy weather at times, with a risk of coastal gales in the north. The weather through the remainder of the period is likely to be rather changeable. There will be more periods of rain on the way, but these will be interspersed with drier and brighter interludes from time to time, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there will be gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times.

Sunday 22 Sep - Sunday 6 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably be unsettled with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, in between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-forecast-saharan-plume-to-bring-hottest-indian-summer-ever-with-highs-of-26c/ar-AAGYHt3?ocid=ientp

Friday 13 Sep - Sunday 22 Sep

Friday is likely to be dry and bright in the south, but windy with blustery showers in the north. The dry and bright conditions are likely to spread further north for next weekend, leaving just the far north with wetter and windier weather. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but chilly nights in the south may cause some early morning fog. By Sunday, daytime temperatures in the south could be somewhat warmer. The predominantly dry and bright weather may continue into the following week for much of the UK, though the far north is likely to keep more wind and rain. By the end of the week the situation becomes quite uncertain and there will be an increasing chance of wet and windy weather spreading southwards.

Monday 23 Sep - Monday 7 Oct

Confidence remains low during this period. However, the most likely situation is unsettled with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Coldest Winter in 30 years... Independent

One to bank?   Surprised i've only seen one of these 'predictions' 

Coldest Winter in 30 years... Independent

One to bank?   Surprised i've only seen one of these 'predictions' 

Given we are only a week into September, I take this with a large dose of salt right now. If they are still thinking the same thing a couple of months from now and if other forecasters come on board, then we may be onto something.

 

Given we are only a week into September, I take this with a large dose of salt right now. If they are still thinking the same thing a couple of months from now and if other forecasters come on board, then we may be onto something.

Same story in the Mail

I love this quote - "Analysing current sea temperatures and weather systems over the north Atlantic scientists are able to predict what is to head our way in four month's time - and it's going to be very cold." 

Y'never know eh?

 

Same story in the Mail

I love this quote - "Analysing current sea temperatures and weather systems over the north Atlantic scientists are able to predict what is to head our way in four month's time - and it's going to be very cold." 

Y'never know eh?

Even the Scotsman newspaper is running with that same story of another Beast From the East event in the aftermath of Brexit as shown here.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/snow-beast-from-east-weather-16884513

What?

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/snow-beast-from-east-weather-16884513

What?

That indeed, would be an even bigger story if that came anywhere close to coming off especially since it was within that same city, where that famous temperature record was set just over a month ago which resulted in that particular day being the UK's hottest day on record.

UK weather warning: -14C Arctic storm to submerge UK in snow - Beast from the East returns

THE UK is bracing itself for the worst winter temperatures in more than three decades, amid a prediction of -14C Arctic winds and a return of last year's Beast from the East.

Britain faces its coldest winter in more than 30 years, according to one of the most advanced forecasts in UK history. The shocking weather prediction shows a bone-chilling return of an Arctic weather blast, bringing with it one of the country's harshest winters. This means the UK could be set to see the return of the 'Beast from the East' as scientists warn temperatures could plummet to well below freezing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1175418/UK-weather-warning-forecast-BBC-Arctic-Beast-from-the-East

Let's keep these silly stories coming it increases the chances of a mild winter 

UK weather warning: -14C Arctic storm to submerge UK in snow - Beast from the East returns

THE UK is bracing itself for the worst winter temperatures in more than three decades, amid a prediction of -14C Arctic winds and a return of last year's Beast from the East.

Britain faces its coldest winter in more than 30 years, according to one of the most advanced forecasts in UK history. The shocking weather prediction shows a bone-chilling return of an Arctic weather blast, bringing with it one of the country's harshest winters. This means the UK could be set to see the return of the 'Beast from the East' as scientists warn temperatures could plummet to well below freezing.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1175418/UK-weather-warning-forecast-BBC-Arctic-Beast-from-the-East

 

Let's keep these silly stories coming it increases the chances of a mild winter 

Conversely if all of those stories were about a mild winter ahead such as what the Met Office had infamously and incorrectly forecast back in around 2009/2010, that might be what would boost our chances of a cold winter.

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/snow-beast-from-east-weather-16884513

What?

Here's the study the stupid weather stories are based on

http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

Here's the study the stupid weather stories are based on

http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

As much as many here would love these stories to be right we all know that weather sells stories and the more gory the better.😁

Also on Sky News:

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-could-be-hit-by-another-beast-from-the-east-this-winter-say-scientists-11805159

Of course, this is beyond Fantasy Island stuff, this is Fantasy Star Trek stuff.

However, should these predictions be proved correct, we can naturally associate any such outcome with the deep solar minimum currently being experienced.

 

Also on Sky News:

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-could-be-hit-by-another-beast-from-the-east-this-winter-say-scientists-11805159

Of course, this is beyond Fantasy Island stuff, this is Fantasy Star Trek stuff.

However, should these predictions be proved correct, we can naturally associate any such outcome with the deep solar minimum currently being experienced.

 

Sunday 15 Sep - Tuesday 24 Sep

The middle of September is likely to be widely settled and dry with light winds and plenty of sunshine, especially in the south of the UK. There will be a greater chance for windier conditions, some rain and a few showers in the north, particularly for northern Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be near average by day, although warm in the southeast at first, and cool by night with air frosts likely in prone locations. Away from the north, which may remain more changeable, the settled conditions are likely to extend through the period with temperatures remaining near normal for the time of year, with warm days offset by chilly nights and a chance for some patchy fog during the early morning.

Wednesday 25 Sep - Wednesday 9 Oct

Confidence remains low for late September and early October. However, the most likely situation is for a more changeable pattern with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, between drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north. This means there will be some chillier days on the cards, and occasional frosts at night under clear skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

More settled as autumn holds off for a while

_________________________________

Wednesday 11 September – Sunday 15 September

A wet and windy week with a calmer, drier weekend

The rest of the working week looks rather unsettled with some rain for most of the country at times, although most often in the north. Wednesday will see a frontal system from the remnants of Hurricane Dorian slowly move through Wales and England before clearing to the south in the evening. Further north, behind the front, there will be some scattered blustery showers and sunny spells. On Thursday the remnants of Tropical Storm Gabrielle are expected to track across the central UK. This means that while the system will have fronts like a normal Atlantic weather system, it will also have some warmer, tropical air. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer than recent days for the southern half of the country.

Rain and winds will tend to be confined to Wales, the Midlands, and northern England, although southern England may see some patchy rain Thursday night. By Friday and into the weekend, high pressure will begin to build in from the south and southwest, bringing more settled weather to the southern half of Britain. A few weak fronts will likely continue to plague Scotland (and Northern Ireland at times) with cloudier skies and some patchy light rain or drizzle. It will turn rather warm in the south, particularly on Sunday with temperatures reaching the mid-twenties Celsius.

Monday 16 September – Sunday 22 September

High pressure remaining largely in charge

High pressure is expected to dominate next week, blocking any low pressure systems from reaching the UK. This will keep things calm, dry, and settled with warmer air feeding in from the southwest. The best of the dry and settled conditions will be the south, particularly the southwest. Northern areas, especially North Scotland, will see temperatures a bit closer to normal, and may see influences from occasional weak fronts bringing in some cloudier and wetter weather. Early on in the week, a weak cold front slowly crossing the UK from the north will bring in a brief spell of cooler weather and some patchy light rain to eastern areas.

Most of the polar air is expected to remain east of the UK, and western areas will stay warmer than average for mid-September. By midweek and for the rest of the week and weekend, the cooler polar air will be pushed off to the east by building high pressure, bringing temperatures back above average for eastern areas. With it being September, even though sunny afternoon highs will tend to be above average, the overnight lows will likely still feel chilly, and there is a chance of frost in known cold spots or frost hollows. Mist and fog will likely become more prevalent and could linger for a time each morning.

Monday 23 September – Sunday 6 October

Cool, but perhaps settled for a time

The end of September is expected to see settled and warm weather linger as the blocking high pressure system remains stubbornly in place over or near the UK. This will keep Atlantic weather systems closer to Iceland and into Scandinavia. As the fronts pass north of the UK, a few may be just strong enough to reach into the far north of Scotland or the Northern Isles, bringing some clouds and patchy light rain. Elsewhere there should be a good amount of dry and calm weather. This is not destined to last, however, and as we head into October, autumn will likely begin to rear its head with high pressure shifting into the Atlantic and low pressure becoming more influential.

This will mean temperatures trending cooler, and the weather becoming wetter and windier; a more typical British autumn. There is some uncertainty on exactly when this pattern shift will occur. Up until recently, forecast models have been keen to break down our high pressure system early on in October. However, over recent days, at least some of these forecast models have been reluctant to do so, keeping the largely settled spell going for longer - perhaps on in to the middle of the month. There is a 40% chance that even the first week of October could be a little warmer than average and generally more settled for all. Even with more unsettled and wetter weather, high pressure is expected to linger nearby to the south or southwest, so there should be some dry and calm interludes between frontal systems. This will be most pronounced in the south.

Further ahead

September is looking increasingly likely to be dry and warm, but when will autumn finally arrive in October?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook