Week ahead

Cooler days and nights
Wet and windy mid week
Sunny periods
No prolonged dry period

Into next weekend

More wind and rain
Staying cool
Still sunny spells

bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49311796  

Saturday 17 Aug - Monday 26 Aug

The unsettled theme looks set to continue through this weekend, with low pressure systems affecting the UK. This is likely to bring spells of rain, which could be heavy at times. These will be interspersed by brighter and showery interludes across the UK. It will be windy too, with gales at times, especially in the north and west. Any drier spells are likely to be brief through this period. Into next week and towards the end of August, there are some signs that longer drier and more settled spells may occur, especially in the south. Temperatures will often be below normal for the time of year, and there will be some chilly nights during any quieter spells.

Monday 26 Aug - Monday 9 Sep

This period will probably start off with changeable conditions, with the best of the dry weather most likely in the south. Later in the month, and more especially into the start of September there are tentative signs that high pressure could become more dominant across the UK, which would mean longer spells of dry weather, and more sunshine generally. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year on the whole. There is a chance of some more lengthy warm spells developing. Confidence is extremely low throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 18 Aug - Tuesday 27 Aug

The unsettled theme looks set to continue this weekend, with low pressure systems affecting the UK. Sunshine and showers will be likely for many on Sunday, with the risk of thunderstorms and coastal gales. Into next week, there will be brighter and showery interludes across the UK. It will be windy too, with gales at times, especially in the north and west at first. Any drier spells are likely to be brief through this period. Through next week and towards the end of August, there are some signs that longer drier and more settled spells may occur, especially in the south. Temperatures will often be below normal for the time of year, and there will be some chilly nights during any quieter spells.

Wednesday 28 Aug - Wednesday 11 Sep

The end of August will probably start off with changeable conditions in the north in particular, with the best of the dry weather most likely in the south. Into the start of September there are tentative signs that high pressure could become more dominant across the UK, which would mean longer spells of dry weather, and more sunshine generally. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate, although will be around normal for the time of year. There will be the chance of some more lengthy warm spells developing, although confidence is low throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet initially, then drier and calmer

_________________________________

Wednesday 14 August – Sunday 18 August

Unsettled at times and rather cool

An unsettled outlook for the remainder of this week with low pressure areas bringing rain and brisk winds at times from the Atlantic. On Wednesday, large parts of the UK are likely to have an unsettled and decidedly cool day as a low pressure area moves in from the west. Outbreaks of rain, some heavy, will spread eastwards over many areas, accompanied by brisk winds in the south. However, southeast Scotland and the far north of England may escape with something drier with only patchy rain there. A chance of thunder, too, within the heavier spells of rain over central areas of England.

Thursday will be breezy and showery for a while with brisk westerly winds but also sunshine at times. Later in the day, the showers will tend to fade from most areas and the winds should ease, thanks to a high pressure ridge approaching from the west. However, the drier weather will be short-lived with further wet and breezy weather then sweeping eastwards across the country on Friday. This weekend is also set to be wet and windy at times with scattered showers or more prolonged spells of rain. A risk of strong winds over England and Wales on Sunday, with gusts perhaps strong enough to bring some branches down from trees.

Monday 19 August – Sunday 25 August

Turning calmer and less wet than recently

A breezy and showery start to next week is likely. Some of the showers could be heavy on Monday, particularly in the north and west. It will feel cool, too, in the brisk winds. However, there are indications for a change in the weather as the week progresses, associated with a weakening of the jet stream. The jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds at around 8 to 11km above the earth's surface and this has recently been driving rain and wind-producing low pressure areas across the UK.

As the jet stream weakens we should see conditions becoming calmer and less wet than recently although there will still be occasional rain. Temperatures should slowly tend to recover after a cool start to the week. Most areas should have spells of sunshine, perhaps with the best of these later in the week.
There is a slight chance, though, that the wet and breezy conditions persist longer than expected through the week.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 8 September

Rather warm with some fine days likely

The end of this month should continue the trend to drier and calmer conditions thanks to a weaker jet stream and higher pressure than recently. There could be occasional spells of rain but most places will be much drier than recently with some fine and bright days likely. In any lengthier spells of sunshine, it is likely to feel pleasant and temperatures are expected to rise above the seasonal average for most.

For the start of September, which marks the start of the meteorological autumn, we should continue to see less wet and less windy weather than recently. The weather is likely to be fairly mixed with occasional rain but some decent periods of drier and settled weather too. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above the seasonal average. However, there is a risk that wetter and windier could return from the west, with this risk highest for northern areas.

Further ahead

After autumn-like weather at times so far this month, we should finally see a change to some lengthier dry and calmer spells of weather in the coming weeks. We will take another look at the risks of any wet and windy weather returning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 19 Aug - Wednesday 28 Aug

Monday will be a cool day with a mix of sunshine and showers, the showers heaviest and most frequent in the north and northwest where thunderstorms are likely. It will also be windy at first, with some coastal gales. Through Tuesday and Wednesday there will be a trend for the weather to become less unsettled in the south and southwest, with increasingly dry conditions developing here. Further rain and strong winds are expected to affect the north though, and some chilly nights are possible. During the remainder of the period there are signals for pressure to build to the west or southwest of the British Isles bringing increasingly settled and warmer conditions, especially to southern areas. However, further wet and windy spells are still possible in the north.

Thursday 29 Aug - Thursday 12 Sep

Confidence is rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the British Isles. Southern areas are best placed to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather are soon expected to develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Accuweather's Autumn forecast

Windstorms to arrive early and pack a punch for the United Kingdom, Ireland

Parts of the British Isles had a taste of autumn in August as wet and windy weather struck the region on multiple occasions. As autumn progresses, the threat of significant windstorms will be on the rise across Ireland and United Kingdom. Impacts from the storms will occasionally spread farther south and east impacting locations from northern France to Netherlands and Denmark.

These windstorms will bring the risk of power cuts and significant travel disruption. Downpours from each storm will also elevate the risk of flash flooding. "Any one windstorm could lead to widespread impacts and damage for a small area," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. "The problem with early-season windstorms is that leaves are still fully on trees, which increases the chances for tree damage and impacts to transportation," he added.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041

Met office 10 day trend

Next 5 days

Low pressure
Rain at times
Breezy and cool

Days 6 - 10

High pressure
Drier
Sunnier

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3LQ-YSit-c

Tuesday 20 Aug - Thursday 29 Aug

Tuesday will be cool and bright with a mixture of sunshine and showers, although winds will be lighter and showers less widespread. Thereafter, there is a trend for the weather to become more settled across many parts of the UK as high pressure builds in from the southwest. This will allow increasingly dry and bright weather to develop with rain and strong winds generally becoming confined to the north and northwest. After the cool start to the week, temperatures will begin to recover and the days will feel warm. However, the nights could still be chilly at times. During the remainder of the month pressure is likely to remain close to the west or southwest bringing settled and warmer conditions, especially to southern areas.

Friday 30 Aug - Friday 13 Sep

Confidence is rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the British Isles. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Wednesday 21 Aug - Friday 30 Aug

Wednesday starts cool and bright with isolated showers in the northwest. Many other places should have a mainly dry day with sunny spells but rain may move across parts of the north and west. The end of next week and following weekend is uncertain but probably sees spells unsettled of weather, mainly across the north and northwest, with drier and brighter conditions continuing elsewhere. Temperatures will recover to near or above average by day, but with some chilly nights. During the remainder of the month high pressure is likely to remain close to the west or southwest bringing periods of settled and warmer conditions, especially to southern areas. The north and northwest may still have occasional bouts of wet and windy weather which may extend to other areas at times.

Saturday 31 Aug - Saturday 14 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the British Isles. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Bank Holiday weather: Blustery showers and no heatwave in sight

Further blustery showers are forecast for the next few days across the UK and forecasters have dampened hopes of a Bank Holiday heatwave. This weekend will see more sunshine than in recent days with maximum temperatures set to be 21C (69F) in the South about around 19C (66F) in the North.

Forecasters say there will be a "gradual improvement" in the weather over the next week but it is unlikely next weekend will see temperatures soaring.

https://news.sky.com/story/blustery-showers-and-no-bank-holiday-heatwave-in-sight-11787117?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming less unsettled

_________________________________

Saturday 17 August – Sunday 25 August

Changeable with spells of wet and windy weather

After a fairly windy and wet weekend for some areas of the country, next week is likely to start on an unsettled note as low pressure remains nearby. Monday will be breezy with showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain, although it doesn't look as wet or as windy as recent days. A weak ridge of high pressure building across the UK means that Tuesday will be drier and calmer with widespread sunny periods and just a few scattered showers. Wednesday will start dry for many areas, but an Atlantic low will push cloud and rain across many areas of the country by the end of the day, with winds also likely to pick up across the north of the UK.

Thursday also looks unsettled and showery as the low pressure system remains nearby. In our last update it looked likely that high pressure would build across the UK bringing drier, warmer and calmer weather to most areas in time for the weekend. Whilst that pattern still looks possible, it now seems more likely that we will see low pressure continuing to be the main influence on our weather, and the unsettled conditions persisting into the weekend. It is worth noting that there is greater than normal uncertainty in the forecast for the end of next week, so we may yet see a drier and sunnier weekend.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 1 September

Probably drier and warmer, but a chance of rain

The last few days of August and first day of September should feature some relatively fine and dry weather as high pressure has more of an influence on the weather across north-west Europe. However, there will be the chance that the low pressure which featured in the previous week lingers into this period, or that we see low pressure systems moving southeastwards from Iceland across the UK as they head into Central Europe.

The most likely picture is for the UK to be drier and calmer than normal, with a decent amount of sunshine and with temperatures a little above normal in most areas. If low pressure remains nearby or pushes in from the NW, then we could see it remaining wetter and windier, and temperatures would be near or perhaps a little below normal for the time of year in many areas. There is continuing uncertainty over the forecast at this range, so confidence is generally low compared to normal for this period.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 15 September

Little more unsettled but some fine weather likely

The ridge of high pressure we expect to be across North West Europe at the end of August should drift eastwards towards Scandinavia and North East Europe during the first couple of weeks of September. That means that the relatively calm, dry and warm weather is likely to give way to something more changeable, with rainfall probably returning to near normal in most areas. It should still be a little warmer and a little less windy than normal though.

Compared to the usual patterns, it looks as though the south and west of the UK is more likely to see unsettled weather than the north and east, mainly due to the proximity of high pressure over Scandinavia. However, for the UK as a whole it conditions shouldn't be too far from 'average'. Whilst confidence was below normal for the forecast for the end of August, it actually increases the further we head into September. This is due to a number of factors, but one of the main things we see is better agreement between the various forecasting techniques used to predict the weather at this range.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the weather for the end of this month and start of next month to see if the forecast for the end of the summer looks any more certain.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• A change in the weather


• Warm and sunnier spell


• Early September uncertainty

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/16/john-hammond-month-ahead-summers-coming-back/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Thursday 22 Aug - Saturday 31 Aug

Thursday will see further spells of rain and perhaps stronger winds affecting northern parts of the UK, with the south more likely to remain largely dry with sunny spells. The end of the week and into the weekend is uncertain at this stage, but will probably see the unsettled weather continuing, mainly across the north and northwest, with drier and brighter conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will recover to near or above average by day. During the remainder of the month high pressure is likely to remain close by to the southwest bringing periods of settled and warmer conditions, especially across southern areas, with perhaps the chance of some thundery showers moving up from the near continent. The north and northwest may see further spells of wet and windy weather at times.

Sunday 1 Sep - Sunday 15 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will increasingly dominate the weather across the UK. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 23 Aug - Sunday 1 Sep

Further spells of rain likely to affect northwestern parts of the UK during Friday, especially over higher ground. Elsewhere, largely dry with sunny spells. Into the weekend there is a lot of uncertainty at this stage, but will probably see the unsettled weather continuing across the far north and northwest, with drier and brighter conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will generally be above average. During the remainder of the month high pressure is likely to remain close by bringing periods of settled weather and warmer conditions, especially across southern areas, with although the chance of some thundery showers moving up from the near continent. Northern parts of the UK may see further spells of wet and windy weather at times.

Monday 2 Sep - Monday 16 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will dominate the weather across the UK. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 24 Aug - Monday 2 Sep

There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage for the weekend's weather, but we will probably see the unsettled weather continuing across the far north and northwest, where it will often be wet and windy with a risk of coastal gales. For the rest of the UK though it may well be a largely dry and bright weekend. Temperatures will generally be above average across the south, but remaining closer to normal in the north. During the remainder of the month high pressure should remain close by, bringing periods of settled weather and warmer conditions, especially across southern areas, although with a chance of some thundery showers moving up from the near continent. Northern parts of the UK may see further spells of wet and windy weather.

Tuesday 3 Sep - Tuesday 17 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. However, there are signs that high pressure will dominate the weather across much of the UK. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather at first, perhaps with some lingering wet and potentially windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warmer than normal and drier than of late

_________________________________

Wednesday 21 August – Sunday 25 August

Becoming warmer and less unsettled for many

A couple of unsettled days to come before the weather starts to settle down for many parts of the country as we head towards the weekend. Most places will have a dry morning on Wednesday, but a deep Atlantic low pressure system will push showers and outbreaks of rain into some north-western parts of the country, where it will also become rather breezy. Wednesday afternoon will see more widespread and occasionally heavy rain moving across Scotland and Northern Ireland into northern England and north Wales. Central, southern and eastern parts of the country should remain dry but will become cloudier and breezier.

Thursday will be a changeable day, with showers and longer spells of rain for many areas. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be the wettest parts of the country on Thursday with south east England most likely to be driest. It will be another breezy day for all areas. Friday should see the start of a spell of drier, calmer and warmer weather. High pressure will keep most of England and Wales dry with sunny spells and light winds. Scotland and Northern Ireland, will probably see showers or rain, particularly northern Scotland, but there is a good chance of some drier and brighter spells. The weekend should also see a lot of dry weather across the UK with just the chance of a few showers. It looks as though it will be warm for the time of year across many areas too. For example, temperatures could reach the mid-twenties Celsius in many areas on Saturday, perhaps a little warmer in the South East.

Monday 26 August – Sunday 1 September

Warm, even hot for a time. Chance of rain later

Most of next week is expected to be warmer than normal for the time of year as broadly southerly winds bring continental air to most parts of the UK next week. The first half of the week will probably be warmer than the second half of the week, and there is a chance we will see temperatures rising significantly above normal for a time. By coincidence, this would fit into the pattern of the summer so far, which has seen spells of very warm or hot weather at the end of each June and July.

There should be a good deal of dry weather too, although with winds coming from the south there will be the chance of some heavy and thundery showers moving in from the continent. Thunderstorms are probably more likely later in the week, when we see more of a chance of weather systems starting to move in from the west. The main alternative to our expected pattern for next week is for low pressure to be more of a feature to the east of the UK, close to or over Scandinavia. If this happens, then cooler west to north-westerly winds would be more likely, so it wouldn't be as warm as we expect it to be, although the cooler weather may only be a feature later in the week.

Monday 2 September – Sunday 15 September

Unsettled at first but drier towards mid-month

Low pressure is expected to be the main feature across northern Europe at first, this expected to bring more unsettled and cooler weather to the UK. The first full week of September is likely to be a bit wetter and windier than normal for the time of year. There are signs of a change of pattern as we move towards mid-month. The most likely scenario is for the low pressure affecting northern Europe to be replaced by high pressure. This would bring drier and calmer weather to the UK, and it should become warmer too, although it is too early to say how much warmer than normal it will become.

One thing we have seen over recent weeks is that weather patterns have been a little slower to change than expected. As a result, there is a chance that the spell of unsettled weather could last a little longer into September than we expect it to. That would also mean that the drier and calmer weather hangs on a bit longer around the middle of the month, reducing the chances of another spell of wet and windy weather to around a 30% chance.

Further ahead

We should be able to give a bit more detail on the chances very warm or hot weather next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 26 Aug - Wednesday 4 Sep

Monday will be dry and sunny for the majority, although with the continued risk of low cloud and fog around far west and northeastern coasts. A cloudier day for northwestern parts with strengthening winds and some rain here. Remaining very warm for most and hot in the southeast, with a small chance for some thundery showers here later on. Through the end of August and early September we will see a good deal of dry weather and sunshine. However, the north and northwest are likely to experience more unsettled periods with bands of rain followed by sunny spells and showers, with these conditions possibly spreading further south at times. Temperatures should be above average, most likely warm or very warm in the southeast, but nearer to average in the northwest.

Thursday 5 Sep - Thursday 19 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period. Southern areas are most likely to see the driest and sunniest weather in the early days of September, perhaps with some lingering wet and windy conditions affecting the north. However, longer spells of dry and sunny weather may occasionally develop across all parts. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, although there is little indication of anything exceptional at this time.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 27 Aug - Thursday 5 Sep

The end of August should see a split in the weather across the UK, with dry and sunny conditions prevailing across many areas, in particular southeast England, and for cloudier conditions across the far northwest. The far northwest will see rain at times, followed by periods with sunny spells and showers. Any strong winds will also be restricted to the far northwest. August temperatures will be above average overall and hot in the southeast, but closer to average in the far northwest. There is lower confidence for early September with quite mixed signals, however, it is likely that the most prolonged sunny periods will be in the south and that it will be more changeable in the north. Temperatures only at or slightly above average for the time of year.

Friday 6 Sep - Friday 20 Sep

Confidence remains rather low during this period, but most areas should see some spells of fine, dry, and sunny weather. These spells of fine weather will be most prolonged in the south of the UK. Northern parts are likely to see more changeable conditions through this period with spells of rain and stronger winds, these extending further south at times too. On the whole temperatures will be closer to or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Hot start


• Soon turning cooler


• September uncertainty continues

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/08/23/john-hammond-month-ahead-summers-last-blast/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 28 Aug - Friday 6 Sep

The end of August should see a split in the weather across the UK, with warm, dry, sunny conditions prevailing across many areas, but in particular the southeast. In the northwest conditions will be cloudier with rain followed by periods with sunny spells and showers. The wind may be strong at times too, with temperatures here closer to average. During early September there may be a transition to more unsettled conditions nationwide. However, any rain will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with southeastern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. There is a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. As we head through early September we should see weather patterns become slow evolving again with temperatures near to or above average.

Saturday 7 Sep - Saturday 21 Sep

From early through to the middle of September there is a trend for the weather patterns across the UK to become slow moving with a 'blocked pattern' becoming dominant. At present it is considered most probably that this will cause a tendency for conditions to be most often unsettled, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are also probable at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast