This morning they were suggesting on BBC Breakfast that it would be fine moving towards the Bank Holiday weekend. That's all disappeared now of course, on this lunchtime's forecast it was a 'temporary respite' in the middle of next week, nothing more. So that's that one gone then. I do wonder sometimes why we even bother with a third summer month when it's just going to end up like October. Why not just have 5 autumn months, August through to December?

Pouring with rain here of course as it has been most of the day but has got especially bad this afternoon. Roll on winter that's all I can say, can't wait to see the back of this miserable 'fag end' of a summer.

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Two odd things:

Augusts never used to be this bad; in fact, they were always pretty much of a muchness with July (year on year variation notwithstanding). 

September is more often than not a fine month. Temps aside, it's been a better month than August for many of the past dozen or so years.

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My have my sympathies. Standing in a field in Bramham at the end of next week wasn't looking too bad before recent model runs. Now it's decidedly dicey. I have all my eggs in UKMO's basket right now (until the 12zs come out).

 

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I suppose this highlights a slight problem with the Summer Index you publish (and of which I am a fan !)

The index has actually gone up between July 15 and Aug 15 from 185 to 195 and I suspect this is because the very high temperatures in the last week in July have had such a huge effect on the summer average max temp (even though it was only 1 week) that it has more than cancelled out all the wet days in the last month

Without getting into a much  more complex algorithm, I cannot see an easy answer to that (and it doesn't happen very often luckily)

 

 

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In that period, though, there weren't that many days with rain, and a fair bit of sun. 

As you say, it's the limitations of using rain quantities to gauge how good a summer is, when that rain typically fell in relatively short and heavy bursts.

 

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See? Bit of a moan, and the 12zs look better already. 

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But also, as you said yourself, Kev’s summer index has been inflated by the temperatures throughout July.  You can get higher than average temps, but lower than average sunshine and the stats would show it as average overall.  Stats are great for some things and I love Kev’s index but sometimes human accounts are better for clarity. 

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I’ve been thinking about changing my E&W summer index from its current model (equal weighting to sunshine, rain and temperature) to one that gives extra weighting to sunshine hours. Ultimately, sunshine and blue sky are what make a summer.

This summer (even late July) has been decidedly meh in the sunshine stakes. Last year was unusually sunny from spring to autumn and we all felt it.

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One of the main disadvantages of Summer Indices are they fail to take into account the 'Weekend Curse'. So often we see fine weather restricted to weekdays and the weekends are awful which is useless to those of us who work regular hours. This is purely a summer phenomenon. July 2019 and August 2018 were perfect examples of that. Seemed fairly average/mediocre on paper but because of the 'Weekend Curse' felt like utter garbage.

This month has been utter garbage no matter how you look at it. Pretty much zero decent weather whatsoever. Today was another vile day - drizzled all day long for a total of 1.4mm and this is what we are seeing constantly. Day after day of November like drizzle and light rain that is not adding up to much but is just completely writing off the summer. Intense downpours and thunder would produce higher rain totals but would, at least, feel more like summer than this grim rubbish.

10 days in a row of measurable rainfall and no end in sight so could potentially even beat the ridiculous stretch of 14 consecutive rain days from 21st June to 4th July 2012 which is the longest I have recorded in summer over the past 14 years. If that were to happen it would assure this summers place as one of the most dismally unsettled of all time. Only the very sunny second half of June has saved it from being exceptionally dull as well like so many since 2007.

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I think that is a perception of the weather pattern rather than a measurable phenomenon. Doubtless it is possible to get a short run of "unlucky" cycles where the weekends have worse weather but this is just a coincidence and over the long term it all averages out.

If this were real there would be a known long term 7 day cycle with quantifiable data and a cause.

 

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The thing with the so-called 'weekend curse' is we simply notice more when poor weather coincides with the weekend. After a fine week on Friday evening cloud starts spilling in heralding a wet Saturday - Typical, you think to yourself, just in time for the weekend! But nobody notices this happening on a Tuesday night before a wet Wednesday. It would be interesting for me to have a look at my own records to see if the weekend weather really is any worse on average than during the week and hopefully disprove the weekend curse, well for my area at least. I don't think you'll ever convince Richard though!

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The weekend curse is a valid point when it comes to human perception, which is more about the amount of usable weather we get in our free time!  It hasn’t really applied to me as I work short hours in the summer and have had time to enjoy many weekdays in the garden this year hence, it’s been a good summer for me.  Which is probably why human experience can be at odds with stats.  

On the other hand, stats don’t change once they’ve been recorded, whereas memory is unreliable.  When I were a lass, summers were sunnier and winters were snowier!  Actually, they weren’t but I remember the odd special occasion when the weather sticks in my mind and that clouds my judgement.  

The most extreme weather has been during my adult life, not my childhood.  In June 2007, the local river flooded for the first time in my life.  We had the heaviest and longest lasting snow in 2010, although I experienced the sixties winters.  Summer 2018 was one of the best, although I experienced 1976 and 1959.  July 25th 2019 broke temperature records here and this summer will go down in my memory as a very good one because there were so many usable days. 

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Manchester Summer Indices

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
2019 192 (up to 16th August)
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1902 195
1915 196
1981 196
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1952 198
2000 198
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199

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And it's raining yet again here in Wharfedale. Although we get some sunshine, usually afternoons, I don't think we've had a sunny start to a day this month and only 2 dry days out of 17!! Rainfall totals around these parts are now over 150mm. August is fast becoming my least favourite month!

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No it's not just perception. It is a measured fact that the summer weekends see worse weather than weekdays. Only two years since 2007 - 2015 and 2017 - have seen sunnier weekend weather than weekdays and in several of the summers the difference has been considerable.

Here are my records from 2007:

Year, Weekday sun, Weekend sun, overall sun

2007	4.30	2.63	3.83
2008	4.79	4.04	4.57
2009	5.73	4.87	5.49
2010	4.93	4.52	4.82
2011	4.78	3.93	4.54
2012	3.41	3.31	3.38
2013	6.26	6.11	6.22
2014	5.72	4.76	5.44
2015	5.22	5.44	5.28
2016	4.83	4.53	4.74
2017	4.72	5.70	5.00
2018	6.95	5.94	6.66
2019	5.90	5.03	5.63

It doesn't average out over time as there has been an 11% difference in daily sunshine average between weekend and weekday over the 13 year period (5.18 v 4.68). More than backs up my frequent complaints about having to sit in a stifling office when it's sunny outside only to wake up to grim overcast come the weekend. Not so much of a difference with rainfall.

As for today, after a promising start it's turned to crap again and I just got soaked by a shower. No 'Weekend Curse' this month as it's just dreadful all the time.  11 days in a row of this now 

 

 

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I don't like this Moaning and gloating thread. thread. Haven't had much chance to do any mooning with all the rain of late.

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A lovely day on the Lizard Pilot Gig rowing. Early cloud gave way to blue sky and the cove at Cadgwith was sheltered from the fresh breeze.
What a change a day makes.

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Well, it won't be long now before it will be time to start the autumn moaning thread (I see that Netweather have already started their autumn moaning thread, having done so back in July). Once that it comes to that time, that would probably just be a moaning thread as I would expect there to be too many reasons for gloating there.

 

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Another very useable day today.  Dry thus far.

and August to date -

Mean max - 22.4

overall mean 18.2 (+0.5c)

Sunshine (poor) 100hrs

Rain - 38mm 

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Nice day, with only a few spots of rain this morning.

Even managed a BBQ tonight.

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17th July-16th August 2019: provisionally 201mm for the region. This wet spell all started on the 17th July

How does that compare to 31 day calendar months for the region?

Wettest January on record: 227.8mm in 1928

Wettest March on record: 178.3 mm in 1981

Wettest May on record: 141.2mm in  1924

Wettest July on record: 171.1mm in 1988

Wettest August on record: 238.4mm in  1956

Wettest October on record: 233.7 mm in 1967

Wettest December on record: 271.6mm in  2015

So that period is up there amongst the wettest spells ever recorded during summer.

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Manchester Summer Indices 

1954 143
1907 147
1956 155
1912 156
1924 158
2012 164
2008 168
1987 169
1946 170
1909 171
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1927 175
1948 176
1938 177
1922 178
2011 179
1985 180
1958 184
1972 185
1916 188
1986 189
1965 189
2016 189
1910 190
1936 190
1988 191
2010 191
2019 191 (up to 19th August)
1966 192
1998 192
2017 192
1953 193
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1902 195
1915 196
1981 196
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1952 198
2000 198
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199 

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This has to be up there with the most stupefyingly boring and non-descript months of all time. It's utterly dire - nothing of interest is happening and it's not at all pleasant.

It's just day after day of cloudy skies, moderate temperatures and nuisance value rain. It's not reached 22C, there's been one night below 8C, no day has recorded 12 hours of sun and there has been just 38.6mm rain but only four completely dry days.

The 'blandification' of the climate intensifies 

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Not been that bad here really over the past week - a couple of days were washouts but the rest were decent with only a few showers and sunny spells with temperatures of 19-20C which is a bit below average but could be worse. Rainfall is sitting at around 43-44mm here, which isn’t bad at all when the LTA for August here is 58mm. 

This month should finish comfortably warmer than average based on the current warm output. Not dissimilar to last August really but probably cloudier. Even warm summer months in recent years have tended to be rather cloudy.

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Just had our daily cloud burst. It's become part of the summer really. No matter what the forecast is for the day, there will always be at least one spell of rain