This morning’s GEFS looks equally if not more settled, yet the actual runs from GFS, GEM, ECM etc (all but UKMO which is looking anticyclonic) are quite messy. Slack pressure, depressions eating into the margins of the continent. Not much sign of high pressure actually taking up residence over us for the time being. Goes to show you don’t need a perfect set up to get decent dryweather.
That said I’m doing my annual work barbecue next Friday and, as always, it is looking like one of the most unsettled days of the coming fortnight. Even last year there was rain around for the same event. I am stuck if it rains because I don’t have enough space inside for everyone.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl