Just watched the Countryfile forecast for the week ahead and they're going for maxes no higher than 27c up to Friday and that's in Cardiff. Large amounts of cloud, rain and thunderstorms are suppressing potential temps. then when things turn sunnier at the end of the week, winds turn to the East meaning lower temps near to East coast. Warmest in the West. Not sure where posters are getting temps of 34-5c from: perhaps hopecasting from the hot weather lovers, of which I'm not one.

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posters especially on other forum exsessively over complicating and muddying waters when it comes to temperatures this coming week. Quite confident if  850 temperatures across England and wales hit 20c during second half of week and we have strong sunshine then 2m temperatures will respond, 93 to 95f quite widespread I would imagine. 

I am expecting those mid 30's temps reach this end of the week.  At nights would be 18-20C and 33-35C during that hot spell.  

Just watched the Countryfile forecast for the week ahead and they're going for maxes no higher than 27c up to Friday and that's in Cardiff. Large amounts of cloud, rain and thunderstorms are suppressing potential temps. then when things turn sunnier at the end of the week, winds turn to the East meaning lower temps near to East coast. Warmest in the West. Not sure where posters are getting temps of 34-5c from: perhaps hopecasting from the hot weather lovers, of which I'm not one.

I’m not saying what I think it will really be like but you’ll understand where those quoted temps come from if you read further back through the thread. Also this morning’s met office video forecast.  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/videos

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Cloud and rain will surely reduce the heat. So if we are blanketed by cloud it would be very humid without the excessive heat.

Its all very simple. 

850Hpa's not important this week.

ENE'ly feed keeps eastern areas cooler, highest temperatures further west.

ESE'ly feed takes many of us into the cooker.

Cloud / showers will suppress temperatures irrespective of airmass.

Prepare for a very warm and humid week and be thankful for some relief if you are on the east coast.  

 

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Its all very simple. 

850Hpa's not important this week.

ENE'ly feed keeps eastern areas cooler, highest temperatures further west.

ESE'ly feed takes many of us into the cooker.

Cloud / showers will suppress temperatures irrespective of airmass.

Prepare for a very warm and humid week and be thankful for some relief if you are on the east coast.  

 

When you say “relief” do you mean “cool grey depressing muck while other areas get some nice heat”? 

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 When you say “relief” do you mean “cool grey depressing muck while other areas get some nice heat”? 

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Sorry, just needed to step in to fill the role in Richard’s absence. 

Seriously though if the flow is slack enough, which is possible, it could well turn out to be quite pleasant in some eastern parts away from immediate coastal areas. Warm rather than hot, albeit humid. I think there is a lot of uncertainty.

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Hmm, you mean on Netweather? They're not overcomplicating things, they're just going into more detail on the reasons the models aren't showing super-high maximum temperatures despite the 850s.

It's worth mentioning that both GEFS and EPS are showing the same lack of surface response, although as I've said before (and I'll say again), anywhere that sees the boundary layer get mixed out will see high temperatures. That's currently most likely to happen at the tail end of next week, but don't be surprised to see things changing as the runs keep coming.

 

It seems its not just posters over on netweather getting their nickers in a twist regarding temperatures later this week. Strong sunshine 850's 20c or above surface temps low to mid nineties no if or buts about it. Forget boundry layer it wont be an issue. Nuff said. 

It seems its not just posters over on netweather getting their nickers in a twist regarding temperatures later this week. Strong sunshine 850's 20c or above surface temps low to mid nineties no if or buts about it. Forget boundry layer it wont be an issue. Nuff said. 

No knickers in a twist here, but it does look like you're missing the point entirely - my posts (and those of a more technical nature on Netweather) are explaining why the models are showing what they are.

That's all.

 

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Automated output eg on my phone now going no higher than 29c for London. I’d be surprised to see 90f let alone 95!

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It seems its not just posters over on netweather getting their nickers in a twist regarding temperatures later this week. Strong sunshine 850's 20c or above surface temps low to mid nineties no if or buts about it. Forget boundry layer it wont be an issue. Nuff said. 

Out of curiosity could you explain why the boundary layer will not be an issue when the experts and charts suggest otherwise? 

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It seems its not just posters over on netweather getting their nickers in a twist regarding temperatures later this week. Strong sunshine 850's 20c or above surface temps low to mid nineties no if or buts about it. Forget boundry layer it wont be an issue. Nuff said. 

Meteorology not your strong point?

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Out of curiosity could you explain why the boundary layer will not be an issue when the experts and charts suggest otherwise? 

Experts are so pre-2016.

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Well, experts or not, boundary layer or not, the 12z GFS paints a still-remarkable picture in the south at 850hPa, but a much less remarkable one down at ground level.

Saturday still looks to be the peak of it, but it's a short window of opportunity. I also notice that the silly high dew points are now entirely absent - no more 27s and 28s, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone considering that a) temperatures are generally forecast to be lower than that and b) those would have been 3 or 4C higher than the record UK dewpoint.

Friday in the SW and Saturday more generally in the south are still shown as having high dewpoints, but that's a long way out and still very much subject to change.

The 12z MetO, meanwhile, shows the 20C 850 isotherm not even reaching the SE of the UK, instead only affecting the SW. Again, there is potential there for some really high temperatures IF (and it's a big if) a foehn-type effect were to set up in the lee of the hills, but that's not presently shown by the model.

The German ICON run is the most bullish regarding the extent of the plume, but it's not supported by the major runs out so far.

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Automated output eg on my phone now going no higher than 29c for London. I’d be surprised to see 90f let alone 95!

Automated on met still have 31C for Heathrow 

Incidentally, tonight's 12z GFS shows record-equalling thickness levels (500-1000) over the SE at 144: 576dam.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tpps&HH=144&PRINT=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&INFO=0&WMO=

http://www.weather.org.uk/resource/ukswxfaq.htm#2A.22

http://web.archive.org/web/20040212210545/http://www.booty.demon.co.uk/tthkxtrm.htm

I suspect it'll be a June record if it comes off!

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There is high confidence now for the evolution next week, with Mon & Tue the warmest and most humid days of the working week. Then as the 850 hpa temps rise during Wed-Fri, the surface temps and dew points will drop due to the N.Sea influence and I don't even think it will feel particularly humid.

Highest max temps in the SE look like 27C on Mon and mid-20s for the rest of the week but dropping slightly day by day.

Still good chance of low 30s (with high humidity) next Saturday, in fact we could easily get 33-34C then.

 

 

 

It seems its not just posters over on netweather getting their nickers in a twist regarding temperatures later this week. Strong sunshine 850's 20c or above surface temps low to mid nineties no if or buts about it. Forget boundry layer it wont be an issue. Nuff said. 

Out of curiosity, who is this Nuff?

On a serous note, Countryfile just had the heat peaking Friday at 30 in the SW. ‘maybe higher into Saturday’

if their accuracy is as ridiculous as their new night-time city lights graphics I would expect something closer to 35 degrees somewhere in central southern England.

Gfs 12z shows a couple of members doing a trampoline Jump of 850’s into July- still a possible scenario as Europe retains the core furnace:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png