I’ve been tweeting about this for a couple of days. Actually gained me a few followers (from Spain, bizarrely).

https://twitter.com/timsarson1/status/1140927906429976576?s=21 

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The potential heat for next week is starting to come into the range of the higher resolution models. Still quite a bit of uncertainty about the exact track of the plume though.

WRF model does have the UK getting a direct hit.

Tuesday sees upper air temperatures of 18C and surface temperatures of 32C by lunchtime which is as far as the model goes

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019062012/nmm-16-120-0.png?20-20

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019062012/nmm-0-120-0.png?20-20

Already some heavy showers breaking out

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019062012/nmm-42-120-0.png?20-20

UK has some of the highest dew points in Europe with a staggering 23-25C in the south-east. That is insane.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2019062012/nmm-18-120-0.png?20-20

ICON 18z however shows the plume missing us to the east

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019062018/iconeu_uk1-16-120-0.png?20-23

Surface temperatures only reach 23C on Tuesday and many places fail to reach 20C. Just across the Channel in Belgium we have 32-34C

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019062018/iconeu_uk1-41-117-0.png?20-23

A serious storm is being forecast which is another reason for the lower temperatures

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019062018/iconeu_uk1-1-114-0.png?20-23

So I think there is still plenty of uncertainty and it is by no means nailed on that we will get temperatures into the 30's. The likelihood is increasing each day though. 

One of the 12z ensembles runs. Bonkers!

The airmass that is threatening next week, if that happened this time last year after the ground had been parched and moorland fires breaking out. Imagine the maxima would have been under that scenario? It was this time last year, the great summer spell was approaching its peak

 

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The 0z remains just as bonkers with the uppers reaching 25C in the SE.

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The 0z remains just as bonkers with the uppers reaching 25C in the SE.

 

Yet the met office still only have a high of 28c for London next week on their website. They're going to look a bit silly methinks and thats being kind. 

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Yet the met office still only have a high of 28c for London next week on their website. They're going to look a bit silly methinks and thats being kind. 

Local radio forecast via MetO (Elizabeth Rizzini) acknowledged some models were showing 35C but the MetO felt this was overstating the case.

 

Some interesting high rainfall totals on GEFS at the end of the week when it breaks down.  

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For London, BBC has a high of 28C next week (on Wed) and the Met 29C (also Wed). I imagine many models must be showing the plume being pushed east (UKMO has hints of this but only goes to 144).

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I've just noticed that the Met Office has issued an early yellow warning for thunderstorms in this part of the world which extends across the east of Scotland even going right up the extreme north coast of the Scottish mainland. That warning comes into effect at 9pm on Sunday night and then carried on throughout Monday.

For a while, I was beginning to think that the June Convection Thread on this forum was going to end up just being an English thread due to the lack of any sort of convective activity on this side of the Border. I know that this isn't actually how it was intended but if this forecast verifies, it looks as though that won't be the case after all, and that I will actually have something to report there.

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According to the bbc weather website next week Paris 100f London barely 80f. We'll have to wait and see but that would be disappointing.

 

 

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GFS 06z has 36C around London next Thursday.

Temperatures in the 30s most of the week.

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According to the bbc weather website next week Paris 100f London barely 80f. We'll have to wait and see but that would be disappointing.

 

 

That will change. It has to.

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New Thunderstorm warning out for all day on Tuesday for most of England and Wales

That's quite a warning!

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Level 2 heatwave alert issued for East of England, London & South east England

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 11:51 on Fri 21 Jun 2019

There is a 70% probability of heat health criteria being met between 0800 on Tuesday and 0800 on Thursday in parts of England.

A spell of very warm and locally hot, humid weather is likely to begin this coming weekend with temperatures gradually climbing during next week, particularly in south east England where trigger criteria looks likely to be met. There is increased confidence of this happening, although details of exact temperatures remain a little uncertain at this time. With this hot weather, there is an increased risk of rain and thunderstorms especially in the North and West of England. This alert may be revised on Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Level 2 heatwave alert issued for East of England, London & South east England

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 11:51 on Fri 21 Jun 2019

There is a 70% probability of heat health criteria being met between 0800 on Tuesday and 0800 on Thursday in parts of England.

A spell of very warm and locally hot, humid weather is likely to begin this coming weekend with temperatures gradually climbing during next week, particularly in south east England where trigger criteria looks likely to be met. There is increased confidence of this happening, although details of exact temperatures remain a little uncertain at this time. With this hot weather, there is an increased risk of rain and thunderstorms especially in the North and West of England. This alert may be revised on Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

What is the heat health criteria trigger for a yellow heatwave warning?

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Doesn't look as there will be much of a heatwave here in Scotland from what I can see, although the weekend looks fairly decent for the most part.

The Met Office have temperatures here in Edinburgh getting up to no more than around 20/21°C over the course of the weekend whilst the BBC/Meteogroup don't have that happening until around next Tuesday and even then, only for one day with the temperatures never being any higher than that.

That would just and no more be our warmest temperatures of this month. Given that we are in what is supposed to be "summer" though, the fact that this is likely to be our best temperatures of this month is very poor fare indeed even for here in Scotland. That is particularly true since it was only a year ago almost to this day since large parts of Scotland were getting above 30°C as well as the fact that during our hottest spells of most summers, we would normally be expecting the temperatures at least somewhere in Scotland to be approaching or getting up to around 27/28°C.

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Looking forward to Gavin Partridges forecast tomorrow.

 

 

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Whilst the U.K. looks to get some warm but cloudy weather, the blowtorch is still on for the continent. Several places in central France and Western Germany forecast to hit 40C+ on Wed and Thirs next week per GFS and ECM.

This is the trouble with being on the margins of the continent. I blame Brexit.

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Whilst the U.K. looks to get some warm but cloudy weather, the blowtorch is still on for the continent. Several places in central France and Western Germany forecast to hit 40C+ on Wed and Thirs next week per GFS and ECM.

This is the trouble with being on the margins of the continent. I blame Brexit.

I guess, this is kind of just the opposite scenario from what tends to happen quite a lot during the winter for those very same reasons with the UK always being on the periphery of some really cold continental air which ultimately, never quite manages to reach the UK.

 

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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Europe-Awaits-Record-Smashing-June-Heat-Wave

Review of the jet stream pattern which is leading to this heat wave (I'd not heard of a 'rex block' before), charts of predicted temps (tops is 37C in SE France but 35C widespread, and a note that models tend to underestimate) and a list of current June records up for grabs.

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