Thought it worth starting this one up, what with the MetO's warning coming into force from 2pm until 11pm this evening.

 

Clearer slot pushing into southern counties of England, with signs of showers brewing up behind that main rain band. Any storms that do get going are likely to be slow moving, with very heavy rain, but as ever in these situations many places missing them entirely.

 

Risk extends northward in parts of Mids as that main band pushes further north.

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Indeed. it would be great to experience a proper thunderstorm from this system as they have been rare beasts in recent years in this part of the UK. Some interesting convective build up in the sunny weather we have at present now the main rain has passed.

 

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Lively line of slow moving cells in Bristol Channel just now, some very heavy returns & quite a few sferics.

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Could get a bit lively this evening!

There was  some thunder & lightning  in Dartford last evening & we have a yellow warning for today from 1pm this afternoon, for more of the same. So glad we have proper office space now for work with plenty of windows so I'm hoping this will materialize this afternoon,  I should have a great view from where I am now, compared to the work space I had previously at home!

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thunderstorms kicking off in past hour to North of here

Pretty strong MCS tracking through northern Germany this morning near Rostock. Very high strike rate. Webcam here was showing quite a few CGs just now:

https://www.wetter.com/hd-live-webcams/deutschland/ostseebad-dierhagen-strand-und-kuestenblick/5922af59cebfc009078b45c7/

 

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In north Nottingham. Just had a couple of rumbles in a heavy shower

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Looking at the model output this morning I would expect the MetO warnings for Thunderstorms Tue/Wed to be refined later to cover the SE and EA with the western limit being IoW to Wash. Some very heavy rainfall potentially from these storms - one to watch.

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Some interesting thundery convection forming across the Channel in last hour or so.
Will be interesting to experience a proper electrical storm again but very hit and miss I think for this part of Dorset. If not this morning then maybe this evening when the second batch form?

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Yes the daytime convection likely to be limited in any electrical activity, things look like getting going for the SE this evening and tonight. Could be a good lightshow for some, but some heavy rain/hail likely as well for some that definitely don't need it.

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Already had around half inch from downpours this afternoon.

So where's this thunder? 

So where's this thunder? 

 

convection should be kicking off soon

So where's this thunder? 

I mentioned yesterday that I thought the warning area was a bit optimistic looking at the models, and I still think that the highest risk overnight is for the SE (London area se'ward). There's still conflict in some of the short range models, but that's to be expected in these set-ups. 

Anyway, whatever happens I wouldn't expect it to get going for a couple of hours yet...

As I type, things seem to be getting going over the Channel west of Caen.

 

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Certainly a vigorous line of cells developing there nr. Caen. Not SB, so some hope of integrity being maintained over Channel. Place your bets - I'm going for Hastings....

EDIT: and a homegrown has popped up between Colchester and Ipswich, with signs of more development upstream.

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Looks like Suffolk has lightning! The Felixtowe area seems pretty active according to lightningmaps.org but it’s a different system to the one currently crossing the Channel. 

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Crikey!  The system West of Caen is really active!  Bets are on and I’m betting that’ll need a passport at Brighton!   

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Crikey!  The system West of Caen is really active!  Bets are on and I’m betting that’ll need a passport at Brighton!   

Signs of some developments as well Caz in the Channel ahead of that line.

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Signs of some developments as well Caz in the Channel ahead of that line.

 Yes, maybe Portsmouth first then!  

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