This forecast of predominantly settled weather keeps getting pushed back. Reminds me of the elusive easterly that was forecast for most of the winter. I wonder if the Met Office will just remove it at some stage? I suppose if they keep forecasting it until September, eventually it will verify!

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-18 

Mew warnings out for tuesday + wednesday for SE , thunderstorms

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-18

Mew warnings out for tuesday + wednesday for SE , thunderstorms

That could hit setting-up and Day 1 of the Lincolnshire Show.

Roger

 

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Saturday 22 June - Monday 1 July

Saturday should see a fair amount of settled and sunny weather as a ridge of high pressure builds across the south of the UK, with scattered showers becoming mostly confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland. High pressure will give way to another Atlantic low pressure through Sunday and into the following week bringing changeable weather with bands of rain crossing most areas at times, but more especially affecting northern and western parts. Towards the south and southeast it will most likely stay drier, and possibly become warm at times, but there is the risk of some thundery showers spreading in from the south. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather. Temperatures mostly near normal.

Tuesday 2 July - Tuesday 16 July

Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the start of July is for a continuation of the mostly dry and warm weather in the southeast of the UK, with generally light winds. However the risk of some thundery outbreaks remains. Windier and wetter weather is likely at times in the northwest but there will be drier spells here too. Temperatures will be near or slightly above the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first but drier and warmer later

_________________________________

Warmer and less wet for a time later this month

Wednesday 12 June – Sunday 16 June

Unsettled and rather cool for many

After a very wet start this week for England and Wales with local flooding, the rest of this week is likely to remain unsettled and rather cool for many. Wednesday will see outbreaks of rain extending over many northern areas of the UK; a very wet day for parts of northeast England where local flooding is possible. Further south, there will be spells of sunshine but with heavy, thundery showers developing over southern England.

Thursday will see further cloud and prolonged rain for some northern and western areas of the UK. Central and eastern England will be brighter at times but with showers, too, some heavy and thundery. Through Friday and this weekend, there will continue showers or some more prolonged spells of rain moving in from the west at times. However, the focus of the wettest weather is likely to be over western parts of the UK with eastern areas seeing at least a few drier and sunnier interludes between the showers.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 23 June

Warmer and less wet than this week

Next week is likely to be warmer and less wet than this week for many, thanks to an area of high pressure moving nearer from eastern Europe. Central and south-eastern areas of England have the potential to be very warm at times. The warmth could trigger a few thunderstorms but otherwise it is likely to be often dry here. Further north and west across the UK, temperatures should also rise, bringing at least a few warm days.

It will be less wet than this week but still with some rainfall and brisk winds at times. The focus of any wet weather is likely to be over Scotland and Northern Ireland because of weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic at times there. There is a slight chance that high pressure ends-up extending over most of the UK, which would bring stronger warmth and dryness more widely across the country.

Wednesday 24 July – Wednesday 7 August

Turning cooler and more showery again

The final week of June is now likely to see changeable conditions with weather fronts moving in from the west at times, bringing occasional wet and breezy spells of weather. However, there should also be some drier and brighter days, with the best of those expected to be over eastern England. Southern and eastern England should also be rather warm at times with temperatures near or slightly above the average for the end of June. Western Scotland is likely to be wettest and windiest with fronts bringing more prolonged outbreaks of rain there.

Into the first week of July, latest indications are for cooler west or north-westerly winds to bring showery and breezy conditions at times for many. Rainfall amounts are likely to increase above the average for early July. Temperatures are likely to fall to near or slightly below the seasonal average. The wettest areas are expected to be western and north-western parts of the UK, which could see more prolonged rain at times. There are chances that southern England could escape somewhat drier and warmer but a hot spell of weather through this period appears unlikely.

Further ahead

We will take a look to see whether the expected cool and showery conditions at the start of July eventually give way to some summer warmth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Sunday 23 June - Tuesday 2 July

On Sunday most places will start fine, bright, and dry and remain so through much of the day, especially in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures will recover to normal or be locally warm. However, for southwestern and western parts heavy rain and some strong winds should arrive during the day as low pressure moves towards the UK from the southwest. Rain is likely to spread northward and eastwards into Monday bringing unsettled weather more widely for the start of the next week. As we head into late June there are signs that high pressure may become more dominant, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather with temperatures mostly near normal. However, by early July we may see a return to greater influence from Atlantic again, although confidence is low.

Wednesday 3 July - Wednesday 17 July

During the first half of July predictability becomes very low, with mixed signals. However, at present the favored solution is for increased Atlantic mobility through this period, bringing spells of unsettled weather to the UK, generally associated with low pressure systems, interspersed by more settled anticyclonic regimes. This will likely mean that showers or longer spells of rain will affect northwestern parts of the UK, whilst the south and southeast will see more in the way of dry weather: although some thundery outbreaks are likely in the south and southeast as is usual this time of year. Temperatures through the period will probably near or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled into mid-July but dry spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 19 June – Sunday 23 June

Turning drier but rain returning Sunday

On Wednesday, areas of low pressure will make for rather unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain.From Thursday, however, high pressure will begin to build in from the south. After a rather showery start in western counties, rain will gradually ease in the south, with settled conditions spreading northwards. Showers are expected to linger in the far north of Scotland through Friday, however the rest of the UK will see dry and mostly sunny conditions.

The high system will also bring in some cooler north-westerly winds, so the temperatures will likely stay a bit below average. Warmer air is expected to move in from the south as we head into the weekend with much of the UK remaining dry through Saturday. On Sunday, the brief break in the wet weather will come to an end, with a frontal system pushing in from the southwest. This will bring rain, at times heavy or thundery, to most of the country.

Monday 24 June – Sunday 30 June

Unsettled start but gradually drying out

The start of next week will see more unsettled conditions due to a frontal system straddling the UK. Despite this, it will be warmer than normal across the south, with temperatures a touch above average. Meanwhile, many parts of the north will have outbreaks of rain and showers with the driest and sunniest weather towards the south. A strong ridge of high pressure in the North Atlantic is then expected to gradually push in from the northwest from Tuesday. The weather will likely turn more settled, but cooler, starting in Scotland and Northern Ireland then spreading southeast into England and Wales later in the week.

Although it will be mostly sunny throughout the country, the high pressure system will bring in some cooler air from near Iceland. Therefore, temperatures will likely dip to near or a bit below average again. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, winds will shift a bit more westerly, bringing a risk of some outbreaks of rain in the northwest of the UK. Cooler, Icelandic air will also push off to the east. Temperatures will likely warm up slightly, especially for much of England and Wales.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 14 July

Dry in early July with wetter weather later

The first week of July will be marked by a transition into a longer-lived and warmer high pressure pattern. The weather will likely turn more summer-like with warm, sunny days and little precipitation. However there is some uncertainty regarding the weather across the north of Scotland and Northern Isles, where it may stay cooler and wetter. Heading into the second full week of July, the confidence drops with uncertainty on how extensive the high pressure system will be across Central Europe and into the UK. Currently, the most likely outcome is for the high to retreat slightly southwest, allowing low pressure to return into the UK and Scandinavia.

This will mean that the UK will turn a bit cooler and wetter again, similar to the end of June, with occasional frontal systems moving into the area. However, in this pattern there is a good chance that warm fronts will occasionally bring in some very warm air, especially in the Southeast and East of England. There is a thirty-five percent risk that the high pressure will remain strong over the UK well into mid-July, and this will keep the very warm, sunny, and summer weather in place for longer. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the high pressure, but there are some strong signals that July may end up being much more settled than our rather wet start to the summer so far.

Further ahead

As it looks increasingly likely that early July will see the arrival of widespread summer weather, we will try and pin down how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 24 June - Wednesday 3 July

Unsettled weather dominates on Monday with a band of heavy rain pushing northeastwards across the northern half of the UK, but with heavy showers breaking out in parts of the south. There's a risk of thunderstorms bringing some torrential downpours across central and eastern England where it could be very warm. This unsettled theme continues through the middle of the week, with further bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms likely, especially for central and eastern areas. As we approach the end of June there may be more in the way of dry and settled weather, with temperatures mostly near normal, but warm at times in the southeast. However, by early July more unsettled conditions with showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain may return to northwestern areas.

Thursday 4 July - Thursday 18 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast detail becomes very low, however it seems most probable that high pressure will lie to the south and east of the UK whilst Atlantic weather fronts occasionally affect the north and northwest. This means showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain are likely in the northwest, while the south and southeast may see more in the way of dry weather, although some thundery outbreaks are possible as is usual for this time of year. Temperatures through this part of July will probably near or slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 25 June - Thursday 4 July

Unsettled, very warm and humid weather is likely to continue for many through Tuesday with showers breaking out, especially in the south. There is uncertainty in the location of these, but they will be heavy with thunderstorms bringing the potential for torrential downpours. Through the second half of the week, much of the UK is likely to remain humid and very warm, perhaps hot giving the possibility of further heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some cooler conditions are expected to spread in from the west at times, perhaps most likely towards the end of the week. Thereafter, as we approach the end of June and early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather. Temperatures will return closer to normal, although it will continue to feel warm.

Friday 5 July - Friday 19 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the south and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the northwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Meanwhile the weather warning for thunderstorms this weekend covers the whole of England bar the SW, an unusually wide area.

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John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Short hot and humid spell


• Further downpours possible


• Fresher and drier through July

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/21/john-hammond-month-ahead-flash-summer-heat/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 26 June - Friday 5 July

Unsettled, hot and humid weather is likely to continue for many through Wednesday with a risk of severe thunderstorms, especially in central and southern areas. There is uncertainty in the location of these, but they will be heavy with the potential for torrential downpours. Through the second half of the week, much of the UK is likely to remain humid and very warm, perhaps hot giving the possibility of further heavy showers and thunderstorms. Fresher conditions are expected to gradually spread in from the west, perhaps most likely during the weekend. Thereafter, as we approach early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather, mainly in the northeast. Temperatures will return closer to normal, although it will continue to feel warm.

Saturday 6 July - Saturday 20 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Thursday 27 June - Saturday 6 July

Early showers and possible thunderstorms will clear northwards during Thursday morning to leave a mostly dry day, with sunny spells, especially away from North Sea coasts. Turning increasingly sunny across southern and eastern England, where it'll be humid and potentially very hot. Friday looks set to stay hot and humid in the south and east, with the risk of some showers in the west. By the weekend and into the following week, confidence is low, with uncertainty in the possibilty of a breakdown to fresher conditions gradually spreading in from the west. Thereafter, as we go into early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather, mainly in the northeast. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm start to the period.

Sunday 7 July - Sunday 21 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 28 June - Sunday 7 July

Friday looks set to stay dry, sunny, hot and humid in the south and east, with the risk of some isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms in the north and west. By the weekend and into the following week, confidence is low, with uncertainty in the possibility of a breakdown to fresher conditions gradually spreading in from the west. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for very warm/hot and potentially thundery weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Monday 8 July - Monday 22 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic weather fronts nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather across the northwest with showers or longer spells of rain. However the south and east would see more in the way of drier weather, although thundery showers are still possible at times. Temperatures during this time are more likely to be slightly above average for most.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Temperatures in Paris could reach 39C, but will feel much higher because of the humid atmosphere.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/remarkably-intense-heatwave-to-sweep-through-europe-11747925

 

I bet the Met Office are regretting their tweet at the weekend with the silly temperature charts. What was it meant to get up to today, 29C?

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled into mid-July but dry spells too

_________________________________

Saturday 22 June – Sunday 30 June

Turning wetter before heating up for the week

After a fine and dry Saturday, things will turn unsettled from Sunday with rain spreading across the country from the southwest in the afternoon and overnight. Thunderstorms and heavy downpours are expected overnight and through Monday for most, but the far Southeast will likely escape with mostly dry weather. Heading into the working week, low pressure is expected to drift southwest of the UK and linger through the week just west of the Bay of Biscay. This will bring in some very warm or hot air from Spain, through France and up into the UK in an event known as a 'Spanish Plume' which typically brings wet, humid, and hot conditions for most of the UK.

Temperatures are expected to climb for most from our rather cool June and will feel very warm or even hot for most of the country, with the warmest temperatures likely being in the South. The heat will come paired with high humidity, making things feel muggy and even hotter. However, along the East and Southeast coasts, a fresher easterly wind will help provide some relief to the afternoon heat, at least through Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact position of the low pressure centre to the southwest, which will determine how, if anyone, sees heavy rain and thunderstorms through the week. Currently the heaviest rain looks likely to hit Ireland and extreme W Wales but may at times move through Western and Central Britain. The best of the dryness will be in the north and east. The end of the Spanish Plume will come some time into the last weekend of June, but there is low confidence on the exact end date. It does look highly likely that the majority of the working week will be very warm.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 7 July

Cooling off to near normal, but wet again

By the start of July, the Spanish Plume is expected to be over and the heat wave will come to an end. This is due to the jet stream - a current of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - becoming more active and bringing the low pressure system to the southwest into the UK. This means that the weather will turn unsettled and cooler again, similar to what we have seen for most of June. The weather pattern is expected to become westerly with progressive low pressure systems in the North Atlantic bringing some fronts into the UK along with spells of cooler air.

There will likely be a few drier and warmer interludes to break things up, however, especially in the South. Scotland, particularly the northern half, will tend to be cloudier and wetter with fronts tending to linger in the area. High pressure will likely retreat to the southwest near the Azores, and into the Mediterranean, taking the hot and dry weather with them. However, there is a slight risk (around 20%) that near the end of the week and into the weekend a strong ridge of the Azores high pressure will extend northeast into Scandinavia, crossing the UK and bringing in warmer and dryer weather while pushing low pressure systems off towards Iceland.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 21 July

Staying unsettled at first but improving later

The unsettled weather is likely to continue through much of July, and there are indications that it is unlikely we will see any long-lived and sustained high pressure keeping things hot and dry like the previous summer or 2018. However, it does look like we may see a brief respite from the cool and wet summer towards the middle or latter half of the month. Low pressure tracks along the jet stream are expected to remain progressive across the North Atlantic at least through the middle of July. This means the second full week of July will likely still be quite unsettled, with some fronts bringing rain to many, but also some dry and sunny gaps in between. Temperatures will generally be near, or perhaps a touch below, average.

Heading into the third full week of July, the jet stream may begin to wander north and south, which will allow some of the warmer tropical air under the Azores high pressure system to reach into the UK at times when the jet stream heads north. This will bring with it sunnier and drier weather, with temperatures climbing above average. However, we do not expect high pressure to last, and as the jet stream dips southwards high pressure will return to sub-tropical latitudes. This sort of weather pattern is inherently highly unpredictable in the long-range, so day-to-day and even week-to-week details become tricky to pin down with any certainty. There is a risk (20%) that low pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the entire month, keeping things wetter and cooler than summer normally is. However, there is also a lower risk (~15%) that high pressure may become more influential, especially later into July.

Further ahead

We will be able to pin down with more confidence the end of the Spanish Plume heat wave and see how summer-like July will be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Saturday 29 June - Monday 8 July

On Saturday a band of showery rain, with the risk of thunder, will spread erratically from the west, introducing fresher conditions. The hot and humid conditions will likely be confined to the east on Sunday. By Monday,the fresher conditions will spread to all areas. It will likely stay drier across the south and southeast though. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for warm or very warm, locally hot, and potentially thundery, weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Tuesday 9 July - Tuesday 23 July 

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic frontal systems nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather over southern and southwestern parts of the UK, with some rain or showers. However, the north and east would see more in the way of drier and settled weather. Temperatures during this period are likely to be around or slightly above normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

It seems strange that the Met Office and BBC Weather projections are somewhat different for early to mid July especially from a temperature point of view Which is closer to the mark?

Sunday 30 June - Tuesday 9 July

Sunday will be fresher than of late, with sunny spells and occasional showers. The showers will be heaviest in the northwest, where there will be a risk of thunderstorms and coastal gales. However southeastern areas will stay dry, warm and humid. By Monday, the fresher conditions will spread to all areas. It will likely stay drier across the south and southeast though. Thereafter, as we go into early July the most likely scenario is for a continuation for warm or very warm, perhaps locally hot, and potentially thundery, weather possible for parts of the UK. There is likely to be occasional spells of dry and fine weather though. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm or hot spell of weather at the start of the period.

Wednesday 10 July - Wednesday 24 July

During the first half of July confidence in the forecast becomes very low. It seems most probable that high pressure will be close to the north and east of the UK, with lower pressure and Atlantic frontal systems nearer the southwest. This would bring more unsettled weather over southern and southwestern parts of the UK, with some rain or showers. However, the north and east would see more in the way of drier and settled weather. Temperatures during this period are likely to be around or slightly above normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast