Thanks for displaying the chart, GW..

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Met Office Hadley         6.6c.     Anomaly       0.2c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                      5.82c    Anomaly       -2.20c

Netweather                   6.46c    Anomaly       -1.65c 

Mean my 10 stations   7.1c.    Difference     -2.1c.

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Here are the predictions for April. Quite a few people going for temperatures well above 9C. There are strong signs that despite the rather cool start to the month, the second half of April could be a lot warmer.

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Cheers GW!  

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I'm surprised how many people went more than halfway into the 9s - talk about taking a plop on the model guidance!

I also did that, but to a more restrained extent. Not clear yet whether we'll see a big turnaround or not; the ECM 00z was chilly for the time of year D6-D9 and possibly set us on course for a finish in the 8s barring a very warm final week, but the GFS 06z was merely cool during that period and then features an impressive warm-up, giving me a rough CET estimate of 9.1*C to 23rd (similar to GW's estimate, just not quite as positive - likely due to my coarser, grid-derived method), from which it would most likely climb at least a little further given the time of year. The GFS 12z has a similar theme but doesn't warm up as much.

 

To be honest, the warmer the better for me at this time of year, never mind the CET estimate, so here's hoping the GFS 06z is onto something .

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Well, I still think Ive gone too high, but there you go.

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Mean of 5.3C here for the first week which is colder than February's mean (6.0C) and March's (6.6C). However first week of last April was even colder (4.0C) while 2013 had a mean of only 2.9C for the first week  It's the lack of cold nights which is holding up the mean. Mean max just 7.3C, 2.7C below average.

Early April is turning out to be one of the most reliably poor spells of the year with consistent cold day temperatures and lack of sun since 2012.

At least 2012, 2013 and 2018 managed snow and/or frost. 2014, 2016 and this year are just as bad as it gets with hellish cold days and an extreme lack of sun accompanied by above average minima

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Average after first week here is 5C (-2.7C)

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Well I don't know how GFS found another round of exceptionally strong and persistent blocking NW of the UK (zero support from background drivers!) but the results are astonishing; my rough CET estimate tumbles from 7.6*C as of 19th to 6.9*C as of 23rd which, given the time of year, is a strange thing to see.

Average conditions for the final week would then see the CET finish in the mid-7s.

I sincerely hope GFS is as far off on one as I suspect it is - for our wildlife as much as anything!

The 00z ECM seems a lot more reasonable, as it's a decent fit to a Nino base state taking hold (ridges focused Europe-Scandinavia).

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Well I don't know how GFS found another round of exceptionally strong and persistent blocking NW of the UK (zero support from background drivers!) but the results are astonishing; my rough CET estimate tumbles from 7.6*C as of 19th to 6.9*C as of 23rd which, given the time of year, is a strange thing to see.

Average conditions for the final week would then see the CET finish in the mid-7s.

I sincerely hope GFS is as far off on one as I suspect it is - for our wildlife as much as anything!

The 00z ECM seems a lot more reasonable, as it's a decent fit to a Nino base state taking hold (ridges focused Europe-Scandinavia).

I went low - I didn't realise how low until I saw GWs table - Looks like I'm in with a chance - what with these synoptics.

 

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No Met Office Update.

Metcheck         6.24c.       Anomaly      -1.78c.

Netweather     6.85c.       Anomaly       -1.25c.

Mean of my 10 stations    6.79c. Difference  2.46c.      

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I went in the middle but above average and I’m not worried (yet).   At this stage of the game it’s all to play for.  We see swings in the output on a regular basis, so I take it with a pinch of salt beyond three or four days.   

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Met Office Hadley            7.1c       Anomaly      0.6c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                         6.61c.    Anomaly      -1.41c

Netweather                      7.21c     Anomaly      -0.9c

Mean Of My 10 Stations   7.88c.    Difference     -1.37c     

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Pleased I'm still in the top 10 after a bit of a humdinger March. Have a feeling that the outcome might be in the lower end of the chart- but as Caz says, everything to play for in reality. Eagerly awaiting GW's next graph update for projected CETs. Cooler weather over the south, with frosts, could tip the balance.

If it's low, the form horses for April will  possibly be Jerry P, Col, Gusty, marting. We'll see.

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I went low - I didn't realise how low until I saw GWs table - Looks like I'm in with a chance - what with these synoptics.

 

Yes, you're in with a chance of being about 1c too high. 

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Yes, you're in with a chance of being about 1c too high. 

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Met Office Hadley          7.5c.      Anomaly       1.0c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                       6.58c     Anomaly       -1.43c

Netweather                    7.35c     Anomaly       -0.75c

Mean of my 10 stations   7.65c     Difference     -1.6c.      

 

 

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Met Office Hadley            7.1c       Anomaly      0.6c. Provisional to 7th.

Met Office Hadley          7.5c.      Anomaly       1.0c. Provisional to 8th.

All heading in the right direction so far as far as my own prediction is concerned, and that is with me going a bit higher than most of the most the others.

This means that I won't have any complaints at all if that figure continues to increase in this fashion.

 

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All heading in the right direction so far as far as my own prediction is concerned, and that is with me going a bit higher than most of the most the others.

This means that I won't have any complaints at all if that figure continues to increase in this fashion.

 

Don't expect that, with at least 3 air frosts forecast to end the week.

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Don't expect that, with at least 3 air frosts forecast to end the week.

Yes, the night time temps over the past three or four nights have kept the average up but it was a minus figure this morning!  Although with clear skies, if day time temps get into the mid teens it could hold steady.  Ifs and buts!  

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Hmmm!  Scrap my last post!  The outlook isn’t looking too great for mid teen daytime temps!  

Still, there’s half the month to go after this colder spell. All to play for!  Forever the optimist!  

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