I'm actually glad to be near the bottom this time. Not sure this month is going to be much warmer than March at this rate ...

I'm actually glad to be near the bottom this time. Not sure this month is going to be much warmer than March at this rate ...

Maybe, but it’s April, it’s changeable and it’s unpredictable.  It’s still all to play for and it’s anyone’s game, so my glass is still half full with my guess of 9.2c.  I still haven’t thrown in the towel.  

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Another frost of -1C last night.

 

 

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Another frost of -1C last night.

 

 

Even with these frosts which are occurring just now and which have still to come up during the next few days though, I'm still not too worried as far as this month's prediction is concerned as the 1961-90 CET temperature anomalies as reported at Hadley nearly always ends up being warmer than average in the end anyway, and that is why I went high with my guess this time.

 For that reason, I'm more than happy to ride out this storm just now until that inevitable warmer spell arrives later on this month.

 

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Met Office Hadley          7.6c.     Anomaly        1.0c   Provisional to 10th

Metcheck                       6.45c    Anomaly        -1.57c

Netweather                    7.29c    Anomaly        -0.82c.

Mean of my 10 stations   7.82c.  Difference     -1.46c. 

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Met Office Hadley          7.6c.     Anomaly        1.0c   Provisional to 10th

Metcheck                       6.45c    Anomaly        -1.57c

Netweather                    7.29c    Anomaly        -0.82c.

Mean of my 10 stations   7.82c.  Difference     -1.46c. 

Even with last night's frost, the actual provisional CET value still went up slightly from Arty's last report here with the temperature anomaly remaining the same that is another reason for me to not be in the least bit worried for now as far as my prediction is concerned.

 

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Even with last night's frost, the actual provisional CET value still went up slightly from Arty's last report here with the temperature anomaly remaining the same that is another reason for me to not be in the least bit worried for now as far as my prediction is concerned.

 

With the colder weather forecast for the next 5 days or so, I'm expecting the CET figure to be slightly lower than this by next Tuesday. 

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4.7C (-2.7C) here as of now.
Unlikely to stay so low but at the moment well below Feb (6.0C) and March (6.3C)

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Another frost of -1C last night.

 

 

No frost here HT!  It was forecast to be -2c but we had overnight cloud cover and the low was 2.4c.  It’s now a lovely clear sunny day so if it stays this clear, I’d expect a frost tonight.  But still glass half full!!  

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No frost here HT!  It was forecast to be -2c but we had overnight cloud cover and the low was 2.4c.  It’s now a lovely clear sunny day so if it stays this clear, I’d expect a frost tonight.  But still glass half full!!  

It's a good job then that you're not Richard from Aberdeen, otherwise you would probably be looking at the glass as being half empty rather than half full.

 

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Well things have certainly turned colder than I expected. The CET is expected to bottom out at 6.5C on Sunday before rising again. Very warm weather is looking likely in the second half of the month. Current estimate is for the CET to reach 8.5C by the 25th so a big rise. I still think a final CET for this month of 9C or above is quite possible. That said my prediction of 9.8C is clearly going to be too high but hopefully not too far off the mark. All depends on how high the temperatures get by day during the second half of this month. I think the 8.5C by the 25th could be on the conservative side.

Worth noting that a very large downward adjustment is likely this month. My CET estimate is currently running 0.54C below that of Hadley.

 

It's a good job then that you're not Richard from Aberdeen, otherwise you would probably be looking at the glass as being half empty rather than half full.

 

Empty and negative are words not in my vocabulary John!  

As I suspected, the sky stayed clear overnight and it’s currently -2.2c, so if the CET stations record similar temps, the monthly average will take a hit.  Just a minor blip!  

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Well things have certainly turned colder than I expected. The CET is expected to bottom out at 6.5C on Sunday before rising again. Very warm weather is looking likely in the second half of the month. Current estimate is for the CET to reach 8.5C by the 25th so a big rise. I still think a final CET for this month of 9C or above is quite possible. That said my prediction of 9.8C is clearly going to be too high but hopefully not too far off the mark. All depends on how high the temperatures get by day during the second half of this month. I think the 8.5C by the 25th could be on the conservative side.

Worth noting that a very large downward adjustment is likely this month. My CET estimate is currently running 0.54C below that of Hadley.

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Thanks GW.  That all sounds good to me. 

I tend to see April as a yo-yo month and it’s not over till the 30th.  I could really do with climbing a few places this month, to get me out of the bottom half of the table!  

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Met Office Hadley         7.4c.     Anomaly      9.7c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                      6.36c    Anomaly      -1.66c

Netweather                   7.16c    Anomaly      -2.61c

Mean Of My 10              7.53c    Difference    -1.72c.   

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Met Office Hadley         7.4c.     Anomaly      9.7c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                      6.36c    Anomaly      -1.66c

Netweather                   7.16c    Anomaly      -2.61c

Mean Of My 10              7.53c    Difference    -1.72c.   

Aha!!

Just spotted one of Arty's famous typos here as the Met Office Hadley temperature anomaly (which I have just checked myself) is actually +0.7°C and not the value of 9.7°C which Arty has posted here.

 

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Thanks GW.  That all sounds good to me. 

I tend to see April as a yo-yo month and it’s not over till the 30th.  I could really do with climbing a few places this month, to get me out of the bottom half of the table!  

Contrary to what many people on the forum seem to think, I actually find April to be one of the most interesting months of the year weather-wise. Okay, you don't get the extremes of Winter or Summer but you can get pretty much any weather that this country experiences from snow and severe frosts to hail, thunder and heatwaves 

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Aha!!

Just spotted one of Arty's famous typos here as the Met Office Hadley temperature anomaly (which I have just checked myself) is actually +0.7°C and not the value of 9.7°C which Arty has posted here.

 

  Well spotted!  We haven’t had the pleasure of one of these for a while!  Perhaps we should give them a name like ‘Art’s brain farts’, or ‘Arties bloomers’.  What do you reckon Art?  

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Contrary to what many people on the forum seem to think, I actually find April to be one of the most interesting months of the year weather-wise. Okay, you don't get the extremes of Winter or Summer but you can get pretty much any weather that this country experiences from snow and severe frosts to hail, thunder and heatwaves 

Yes, I agree!  April weather is seldom dull and I quite like the variety!  

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  Well spotted!  We haven’t had the pleasure of one of these for a while!  Perhaps we should give them a name like ‘Art’s brain farts’, or ‘Arties bloomers’.  What do you reckon Art?  

😇🎶🎵

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Met Office Hadley         7.2c      Anomaly    0.5c.   provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                      6.27c     Anomaly    -1.75c

Netweather                   7.05c     Anomaly    -1.06

Mean of my 10              8.23c.    Anomaly    -1.02c  

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