I'd love to know how the BBC are seeing temperatures 17c or higher in the south and east on Sunday???? Any ideas?

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Tuesday 9 Apr - Thursday 18 Apr

Rain for parts of southwest, central and eastern England on Tuesday. Brighter to the north, though some showers likely here for a time. Remaining changeable for a time thereafter, with rain and showers likely at times. However, some drier and brighter weather is also possible, with the brightest skies most likely in the west. From the second full week of April we are likely to see a good deal of dry weather, especially in the north. Periods of unsettled weather are still possible, although any rain is likely to be confined to the south and southwest. Temperatures will be near the seasonal average to rather warm in the south and west, but it will feel cold in many eastern areas at times.

Friday 19 Apr - Friday 3 May

Blocked and settled conditions are most likely to dominate the weather through this period. These will bring a good deal of dry weather, especially across the north and northwest of the UK. There are still likely to be some wetter interludes from time to time, these perhaps mainly affecting the south and southwest. Temperatures are likely to be above the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Chilly easterlies next week


• Mid-month change


• Warmer through Easter

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/05/john-hammond-month-ahead-things-get-better/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 10 Apr - Friday 19 Apr

Wednesday is likely to be mainly dry and cloudy with light winds, but it will be a little colder than average for the time of year. On Thursday and Friday, this rather cold and mostly dry weather is likely to continue, with easterly or northeasterly winds. However, there is a chance of some heavy rain in the far southwest. Beyond that, we are likely to see a good deal of dry weather generally, but towards the end of next week, periods of wet and windy weather are likely to develop in the southwest, perhaps spreading into northwestern areas by the end of the week. Temperatures will gradually increase back to the seasonal average, especially in sheltered and sunnier parts of the northwest.

Saturday 20 Apr 0 Saturday 4 May

It looks as though the last few days of April may become rather wet and windy in the west. Spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with showers, and drier and brighter spells will probably be short lived. Further east, there will be some rain and a few showers at times, but also a fair amount of dry and bright weather. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, and perhaps rather warm in the southeast. There is low confidence for the start of May, but there are some signals for a warmer and drier spell of weather across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

The two latest MetO forecasts couldn't be more different. From "blocked and settled" to "wet and windy" in the space of a day. Proof if ever its needed that these are a waste of time.

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I'd love to know how the BBC are seeing temperatures 17c or higher in the south and east on Sunday???? Any ideas?

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Thursday 11 Apr - Saturday 20 Apr

Thursday and Friday will be cold but mostly dry across the north with perhaps a few light showers and some snow flurries, even to lower levels, but with no significant accumulations expected. There is a greater chance of rain in the south, but details of this are uncertain and many areas will see some good spells of dry weather developing with some overnight frosts. A gradual change to more wet and windy weather is likely to develop from the weekend, particularly in the southwest, perhaps spreading into northwestern areas. Some intermittent drier, brighter interludes are also likely as well. After the cold spell, temperatures will gradually increase back to the seasonal average, perhaps even warm in the south and southeast.

Sunday 21 Apr - Sunday 5 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

At the time the models weren't showing this. Proves that they have access to lots that we mere mortals don't.

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I’ve been most impressed with the beeb/MeteoGroup over the last six months or so.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Settled but cooler next week, then changeable

_________________________________

Saturday 6 April—Sunday 14 April

Mild weekend then cool, settled week

As low pressure heads off to the southwest and high pressure builds in strongly to the north, the UK will turn fairly mild for April, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid or upper-teens across the South, and into the low- to mid-teens further north. A weak frontal boundary will be pushed across the UK from the northeast, heading southwest, and bringing showery rain with perhaps the odd rumble of thunder for the Midlands and South on Sunday and Monday. As this front passes, winds will shift to easterly or north-easterly and bring in some noticeably cooler Scandinavian air, that will gradually spread southwards. By Wednesday morning, the entire country will be feeling much cooler, with temperatures running below average.

Despite this cooler weather, things will be largely settled. The north-easterly flow will be mostly dry, but will likely bring in quite a bit of cloud from the North Sea. Nights will be marked by chilly fog and some frost in a few spots, while the afternoons will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the best of the sun lingering in the west. Occasionally some isolated showers will drift into Northeast England and East Scotland, and due to the cooler air these may be wintry or even snow in higher spots. Accumulation will likely be negligible though, as the showers will be very light and widely scattered.
As we move into the weekend, things will begin to warm up as stronger low pressure develops off to the west in the North Atlantic. This will help a ridge of high pressure build across western Europe, bringing some warmer air into the UK from the southwest. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing of the return of unsettled weather, but late Sunday 14th and into Monday 15th is looking promising.

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April

Turning more unsettled, but also milder

Early in the week high pressure to the north will likely have weakened enough to allow a return of more unsettled weather into the UK, and much of western Europe at large. This will also bring in some milder air from the southwest, so any wintry weather is unlikely, especially at low levels. High pressure will be lurking somewhere across Europe this week, and this is the main source of uncertainty. Models are struggling with just where this high pressure might be, and as a result the forecast for the UK has been changing significantly. High pressure located a bit further west will keep most of the unsettled weather over Ireland and Scotland, leaving England and Wales largely fine and dry. A slight shift to the east, and things become wetter and windier for all.

Confidence is still very low for this week overall, but we are reasonably certain that there will be a return to a period of unsettled weather in mid-April. The only question is how long it will last? Towards the weekend of the 20th and 21st there are indications that we will start to see more widespread high pressure across central and western Europe, which will start to push low pressure off to the west and bring more settled weather into the UK. Crucially, this also happens to be the Easter holiday weekend, so there are some growing signs that over the course of the long weekend the weather may be turning from wet and windy to drier, calmer, and with a bit a sunshine.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 5 May

Mostly settled end to April, with fronts at times

As high pressure continues to build strong across Europe, low pressure should be pushed out into the North Atlantic, bringing more settled weather into the UK. The high will be bringing some warmer Mediterranean and North Saharan air up from the south, so it will likely continue to be mild with temperatures slightly above average. However, at times the high may weak slightly and shift a bit further east, allowing one or two days or more unsettled weather to return as a front pushes in from the west.

These look to be short-lived events and there aren't strong signals for any widespread or long-lived wet or windy weather, except for North Scotland, where weak fronts will be a more common sight, keeping things a bit cloudier and rather damp when compared with conditions further south. As with earlier in the month, there is still a bit of uncertainty on where exactly the high pressure will end up, so occasionally these fronts will be able to push further south, with some crossing the country and bringing rain and cloudiness to most places. Temperatures will likely be near or just above average for most of the end of April and start of May, with one or two brief cooler snaps possible with any stronger cold fronts.

Next Update

Can we expect high pressure to make a return as we move into May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 12 Apr - Sunday 21 Apr

Friday will be cold but mostly dry across the north with perhaps a few light showers and some snow flurries, even to lower levels, but with no significant accumulations expected. There is a greater chance of rain in the south, but details of this are uncertain and many areas will see some good spells of dry weather developing with some overnight frosts. A gradual change to more wet and windy weather is likely to develop from the weekend, particularly in the southwest, perhaps spreading into northwestern areas. Some intermittent drier, brighter interludes are also likely as well. After the cold spell, temperatures will gradually increase back to the seasonal average, perhaps even warm in the south and southeast.

Monday 22 Apr - Monday 6 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I’ve been most impressed with the beeb/MeteoGroup over the last six months or so.

They are proving to be very good. 

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Saturday 13 Apr - Monday 22 Apr

The weekend will be largely fine and dry with sunny spells for many. Perhaps a few scattered showers are possible in the east. Generally rather cold, with widespread overnight frost. Temperatures perhaps closer to normal in sheltered and sunnier western parts. There is the increasing signal into next week of conditions turning more changeable across the south and southwest with some spells of rain, with any further northward spread uncertain. The spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with showers, also with drier and brighter spells of weather. There should be a fair amount of dry and bright weather around, especially in the north and northwest. Following the colder interlude, temperatures are likely to recover to near-normal, with warm conditions likely at times, especially in the south and west.

Tuesday 23 Apr - Tuesday 7 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Brian is quoted in the sun today as saying 'The beast from the north east'

 

@TWOweather Hi. Quick question... Did the newspapers get this quote from something you’ve written online or did you speak to them directly? This was in @TheSun but quotes elsewhere... pic.twitter.com/hBOqBTmjOO

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) April 9, 2019

 

They are proving to be very good. 

Not here, lately especially. Been forecasting warmer weather with some sunshine for past few days and it has been bleak and cold and damp. Today's forecast was for sun and still wet and miserable and cold, 9C at 12.30 am. Can't wait for tomorrow's much colder weather to kick in - it will be 4C warmer!

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Sunday 14 Apr - Tuesday 23 Apr

Sunday will be mostly fine and dry with sunny spells for most. Chance of a few showers in the east. Generally rather cold, with widespread overnight frost. Temperatures perhaps closer to normal in sheltered and sunnier western parts. There is the increasing signal into next week of conditions turning more changeable across the south and southwest with some spells of rain, with any further northward spread uncertain. The spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with showers, also with drier and brighter spells of weather. There should be a fair amount of dry and bright weather around, especially in the north and northwest. Following the colder interlude, temperatures are likely to recover to near-normal, with warm conditions likely at times, especially in the south and west.

Wednesday 24 Apr - Wednesday 8 May

There is low confidence with regard to the extended outlook, but there are weak signals that favour slow moving weather patterns, and a greater likelihood of warmer and drier than average weather overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Settled but cooler this week, then changeable.

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 April—Sunday 14 April

A cooler, settled week. Cloudy at times

A weak frontal boundary will linger briefly Wednesday morning across the far south of England, keeping things a bit cloudy down there, but high pressure building in from the north will push it off into the Channel, leaving the UK dry and settled for the rest of the week. However, as a ridge of high pressure builds in, winds will shift easterly to north-easterly and bring in some noticeably cooler Scandinavian air, bringing temperatures down to a few degrees below average for the second half of the week.

High pressure will remain in charge for the rest of the week, keeping things settled. The north-easterly flow will be mostly dry, but will likely bring in quite a bit of cloud from the North Sea at times. Nights will be marked by chilly fog and some frost in a few clearer spots, while the afternoons will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the best of the sun in western and central areas. Occasionally some isolated pockets of drizzle will drift in with some of the thicker cloud banks from the North Sea, and in eastern areas the cloud may linger for most of the day, keeping things dreary and chilly.

As we move into the weekend, an upper level low will drift across Central Europe, which will bring the a slight chance of the odd shower into the Southeast from Saturday. This will also increase the winds in the South, so the weekend will be a bit breezier than the week. The low may also bring in a thicker band of low cloud across the North Sea into the Southeast coast, blanketing East Anglia and possibly reaching into London Sunday, making for a grey finish to the weekend. Further north things will stay settled and dry, with the greatest risk for North Sea low cloud in the Southeast.

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April

Turning more unsettled, but also milder

Early in the working week high pressure to the north will likely have weakened enough to allow a return of more unsettled weather into the UK, and much of western Europe at large. This will also bring in some milder air from the southwest. High pressure will be lurking somewhere across Europe this week, and this is the main source of uncertainty. Models are struggling with just where this high pressure might be, and as a result the forecast for the UK has been changing significantly. High pressure located a bit further west will keep most of the unsettled weather over Ireland and Scotland, leaving England and Wales largely fine and dry. A slight shift to the east, and things become wetter and windier for all.

Confidence is still low, but growing for this week overall. We are reasonably certain that there will be a return to a period of unsettled weather mid-week, with an upper level low on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing some showery weather, spreading north on Thursday. Towards the weekend of the 20th and 21st there are indications that we will start to see more widespread high pressure across central and western Europe again, which will start to push low pressure off to the west and bring more settled weather back into the UK. However, the ridge of high pressure is expected to continue heading westwards into the North Atlantic, with a trough of low pressure moving in from the east behind. This may occur on Easter Sunday or perhaps the following Monday, and will bring in a spell of unsettled weather.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 5 May

Warm, settled end of April and start of May.

As the high from earlier in April heads westward into the North Atlantic, a trough of low pressure will replace it from the east. This will bring in a brief spell of unsettled and cooler weather, likely lasting for much of the week starting Monday 22nd. The crucial aspect is what day this unsettled weather will drift in. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact timing, so confidence remains low, but the bulk of the Easter weekend is looking to stay settled currently, with the shift to unsettled weather taking place Monday 22nd or Tuesday 23rd .

The wave pattern across Europe and the North Atlantic will continue to track westward, so after several days the low pressure trough will slowly head out into the North Atlantic, with ridging building in behind from the east. This high pressure will bring in much milder air from the south, along with largely settled weather, although the settled weather will likely take a few days to become established. The last full week of April will likely be mostly settled with occasional weak fronts bringing some light rain. By the first week of May, high pressure should be firmly established across the UK, keeping things warm, dry, and settled.

Next Update

While the start of the Easter weekend should be settled, we can hopefully pin down the timing of unsettled weather in the following week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Second 'bomb cyclone' in a month to hit the United States

Snow blizzards and gale-force winds are forecast to strike the central United States, across the US Plains and the Midwest.

The US is braced for its second winter storm in a month with forecasters warning of more heavy snow, freezing temperatures and flooding. Blizzards and gale-force winds will strike across the central United States, across the US Plains and Midwest, running from the Rockies to the Great Lakes from Wednesday into Thursday. The National Weather Service said some areas of western Minnesota and southeast South Dakota could see up to 2.5ft (30in) of snowfal

https://news.sky.com/story/second-bomb-cyclone-in-a-month-to-hit-the-united-states-11689428

Monday 15 Apr - Wednesday 24 Apr

There is reasonably high confidence in the general trend next week. Monday looks mostly dry with some sunshine, although temperatures will be below average with a cold east to southeasterly wind. Rain may edge in across the far west and southwest. From Tuesday to Thursday the weather is generally likely to become more changeable from the south and southwest, with most areas seeing some rain. However, the far north could stay drier and brighter. Temperatures should rise to average, turning locally rather warm in the south and west. Confidence reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks mixed with rain and some sun at times, the rain becoming most likely towards the northwest. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal.

Thursday 25 Apr - Thursday 9 May

Confidence is low. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed with showers or longer spells of rain, the most widespread of which is expected to affect northwestern parts of the United Kingdom. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above normal during this period, but with some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 16 Apr - Thursday 25 Apr

Central and eastern areas will be largely dry to start the period, with some bright or sunny spells likely. In the west and southwest however, it will be cloudier initially, with some rain or scattered showers at times, and they could be accompanied by strong winds. Temperatures should rise to average occasionally, and they could turn locally rather warm in the south and east. Confidence then reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks most likely to be mixed, with rain and some sun at times. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal overall, but it will still be rather warm at times in the southeast.

Friday 26 Apr - Friday 10 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above the seasonal average during this period, but with some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast