The Weather Outlook

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Retron
17 February 2019 07:30:02

How's this for an early season plume?  29th February 1960

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Impressive!

Last year may have set records (in the cold direction) at the end of February, but even with those +14s on offer from ECM (and more from that GEFS member) it looks like the reverse is a much harder ask...

Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
17 February 2019 07:41:13

Remarkable ECM 14c 850s in February must be the equivalent of 25c 850s in July.  Other models less extreme but still warm, 20c still on.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
17 February 2019 08:15:34

Remarkable ECM 14c 850s in February must be the equivalent of 25c 850s in July.  Other models less extreme but still warm, 20c still on.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

FWIW, the raw ECM has a high of 17C from it all. Charts, as ever, from weather.us.

Leysdown, north Kent
LeedsLad123
17 February 2019 08:31:10

 

Impressive!

Last year may have set records (in the cold direction) at the end of February, but even with those +14s on offer from ECM (and more from that GEFS member) it looks like the reverse is a much harder ask...

Originally Posted by: Retron 

But last February didn’t break any all-time lows. I think this day and age it’d be much easier to get 20C in February than 27C.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Retron
17 February 2019 08:34:06

But last February didn’t break any all-time lows. I think this day and age it’d be much easier to get 20C in February than 27C.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Yes it did - 850s and 500-1000 thickness. There's more than just T2Ms.

Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
17 February 2019 08:34:36

 

FWIW, the raw ECM has a high of 17C from it all. Charts, as ever, from weather.us.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

If it has GFSlitis that would suggest temperatures could push up towards 20C in one or two places. Another possibly notable thing about this spell is the duration on if it. Latest year's Beast was potent but ended up being quite short lived, despite the ensembles originally suggesting otherwise IIRC. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Ally Pally Snowman
17 February 2019 08:36:02

 

FWIW, the raw ECM has a high of 17C from it all. Charts, as ever, from weather.us.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

You can normally add a degree or 2 to these values. Beeb going for high teens late next week. Interesting times.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
17 February 2019 08:39:32

 

If it has GFSlitis that would suggest temperatures could push up towards 20C in one or two places. Another possibly notable thing about this spell is the duration on if it. Latest year's Beast was potent but ended up being quite short lived, despite the ensembles originally suggesting otherwise IIRC. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes, the Beast was disappointing in terms of duration - storm Emma brought it to a premature end. (At one stage it was looking as if Emma would prolong it, but in the event the opposite happened due to a greater ingress of milder air).

As has been said by yourself and others, a chart like the ECM's would imply that 20 is within the bounds of possibility... of course, there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge, but throw in a foehn over the hills of the SW or Wales and you never know what might happen!

Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
17 February 2019 09:46:02

Incredible The Sunny uplands of Brexit and out of control Global warming. Bring it on

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Chiltern Blizzard
17 February 2019 10:00:10

 

But last February didn’t break any all-time lows. I think this day and age it’d be much easier to get 20C in February than 27C.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

It did break March all-time low maximum record i believe.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
tallyho_83
17 February 2019 10:04:02

00z run shows the cold cluster of ensembles around 2nd and 3rd (which were visible on 18z run ) have now disappeared although the OP run was a milder outlier in FI.

But notice the lack of rain? This is only February and so dry for a winter month. I bet people in the SE have worries and it's not even spring year and we have no rain in the forecast for the south and esp the south east for the next 2 weeks!!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Polar Low
17 February 2019 10:09:59

P4 is madness 16 uppers on the south coast 18c given for London nice madness I guess if you like warmth.

 

00z run shows the cold cluster of ensembles around 2nd and 3rd (which were visible on 18z run ) have now disappeared although the OP run was a milder outlier in FI.

But notice the lack of rain? This is only February and so dry for a winter month. I bet people in the SE have worries and it's not even spring year and we have no rain in the forecast for the south and esp the south east for the next 2 weeks!!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

LeedsLad123
17 February 2019 10:10:17

00z run shows the cold cluster of ensembles around 2nd and 3rd (which were visible on 18z run ) have now disappeared although the OP run was a milder outlier in FI.

But notice the lack of rain? This is only February and so dry for a winter month. I bet people in the SE have worries and it's not even spring year and we have no rain in the forecast for the south and esp the south east for the next 2 weeks!!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

February is the driest month of the year on average here.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
17 February 2019 10:16:32
The lack of rainfall going into spring is rather worrying considering just how dry it’s been for the last 12 months.

Could we see those forecasted winter high latitude blocking signals eventually show their hand come spring/summer and lead us into a cool unsettled period of weather, law of averages and all that.

Polar Low
17 February 2019 10:22:22

Indeed SC that really is very dry for London

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

The lack of rainfall going into spring is rather worrying considering just how dry it’s been for the last 12 months.

Could we see those forecasted winter high latitude blocking signals eventually show their hand come spring/summer and lead us into a cool unsettled period of weather, law of averages and all that.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Solar Cycles
17 February 2019 10:47:02

Indeed SC that really is very dry for London

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Wow, that is dry.

ARTzeman
17 February 2019 10:54:27

Farmers Weekly magazine is concerned as it will take reservoirs longer to fill up.



Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

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Nick Gilly
17 February 2019 11:36:58

If we again see the current FI morph into another HP with the 0c 850 hpa isotherm ongoing in its annual hike north ( average position) then we need a favourable position for said HP if we are to see cold allowed in for any sustained cold ( over 3 days?)

If we do just see H.P. again bossing the charts we could still see cold nights from a colder, less moist, feed?

For our March/April snow showers we need as LP with a long draw of P.M. off the top of Greenland otherwise our own lack of cold and the Atlantic leave us with an above marginal set up with only the tops seeing their last snow?

I'm on for a continuation of this same near Bartlett theme and on into a blazing spring ( when was the last of those?)

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

The last 'blazing spring' was 2017. It was the warmest spring on record according to Trevor Harley's excellent yearly summaries.

Brian Gaze
17 February 2019 11:40:11

The mean finally dips below the average.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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tallyho_83
17 February 2019 12:52:49

00z run shows the cold cluster of ensembles around 2nd and 3rd (which were visible on 18z run ) have now disappeared although the OP run was a milder outlier in FI.

But notice the lack of rain? This is only February and so dry for a winter month. I bet people in the SE have worries and it's not even spring year and we have no rain in the forecast for the south and esp the south east for the next 2 weeks!!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Even drier on 06z:

 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
17 February 2019 12:55:56

The mean finally dips below the average.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

But so dry esp for the SE and this is still ONLY February!? Are you worried Brian?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gray-Wolf
17 February 2019 13:05:37

I'm still not trusting the FI output a.t.m.? We again see it toying with cold but always just the last few frames and never closer.

GFS 06Z is what I have been following and I again have to wonder whether it is trying to bring in weathers more suited to early March than what we eventually get to see?

Again with the H.P. so it's all about where it meanders as to whether we see any cold 850's or whether they again pull north from the lobe as it approaches.

I'm still going for either a continuation of milder airs circulating around the high dominating our weather?

I don't even know if the polar night Jet is already getting ready for its final warming or if it is just still on recovery from the splits? I do know the MJO appears a little 'tweaked' as it crosses the Pacific..... hmmmm.

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2019 15:00:27

The mean finally dips below the average.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Even more striking is how dry it's forecast for the remainder of a normally wet month.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Rob K
17 February 2019 16:31:42

The lack of rainfall going into spring is rather worrying considering just how dry it’s been for the last 12 months.

Could we see those forecasted winter high latitude blocking signals eventually show their hand come spring/summer and lead us into a cool unsettled period of weather, law of averages and all that.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Law of averages is a fallacy. Not particularly dry round here, just got back from a bike ride in the Surrey Hills and there’s plenty of mud and flowing water. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

picturesareme
17 February 2019 17:48:34

 

Even more striking is how dry it's forecast for the remainder of a normally wet month.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Well down here at least rainfall amounts for this February are around average at the moment. So let it be dry ;) 

Two weather stations local to here over in Gosport have recorded 54.8mm & 46.8mm with later often under measuring (likely to be sheltered) rainfall.

Met office Solent average for Feb is 49.3mm. 

I suspect this region is not isolated either for average rainfall this month.

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