The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

PFCSCOTTY
15 February 2019 21:22:26

 

Come on Doc, you have to admit how much of a joke their mid-long term forecast has been - since December they’ve been suggesting cold, very cold and even severe disruptive snow events. It cannot be ignored (or maybe it can if you discount such a huge player). 

This was supposed to be a time of extremities. The fact we’re experiencing/ about to experience unprecedented warmth in the very period they consistently wrote the exact OPPOSITE only makes their performance more laughable. 

I’m sure you’ll continue to disagree so Have another good look: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

I am sure the issue is actually whether there is any benefit in wasting resources on the met office computers that produce the LRF and send us, the media into a frenzy when extreme weather is forecast , there have been dozens of headlines about the severe weather, which affect many businesses, growers  and the public in general and I expect many have shaped productivity and planning on those forecasts which have proved totally worthless  ....so why extend the range so far? In fact to be honest, this year they haven’t even forecast events that are actually underway.

in these times of austerity time for a rethink at the met office as I suspect this years fiasco may have cost millions.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

White Meadows
15 February 2019 21:30:36
Exactly.

This is what i’m Agreeing with- they reduce the LRF’s to 2 weeks or even 10 days absolute maximum.

David M Porter
15 February 2019 21:40:34

I seem to recall an occasion during the early February 2009 freeze when the BBC & MetO forecasts said that they expected the cold spell we experienced at the beginning of that month to continue for much of the remainder of that February. Yet, no sooner had they said that, the models and ensemble runs that we have access to here did a sudden and dramatic flip and showed much milder weather returning during the second half of that month. We also had the famous occasion 14 years ago when it seemed as though the models were renaging on a cold spell that they had previously suggested and Andy Woodcock famously posted "Winter is over", only for the models to do another U-turn a short time later and brought the cold spell back.

The February 2005 episode is one that I especially remember as it was around that time when I first began following the daily model output through this website, and what that episode demonstrated clearly to me is that sometimes, the models can be as fickle as the weather itself often is in this country. Therefore, no-one should take any given solution shown for half-a-dozen days ahead or more as a certainty to happen. Anyone who has been following the models regularly at all times of the year for a while must know this. If they don't, they clearly cannot know much if anything about the nature of the model output.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Brian Gaze
15 February 2019 21:44:29

Clearly the output available to the public is as poor/good as the ‘special’ Data exclusively available to the ‘big boys in Exeter’. Maybe they’d save face (not to mention the cash) by adapting their approach to long term forecasting. Or if there’s not point at all just leave it alone apart from the government contingency updates which fund the whole show to a large extent.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

ECM46 is available to all and so are GloSea updates. What do you mean by "special" data? As far as I aware there is only MOGREPS and that only goes out to about 8 days.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Polar Low
15 February 2019 21:51:15

Crikey is that really 14 years ago and Andy took it all in good faith at the time

 

 

I seem to recall an occasion during the early February 2009 freeze when the BBC & MetO forecasts said that they expected the cold spell we experienced at the beginning of that month to continue for much of the remainder of that February. Yet, no sooner had they said that, the models and ensemble runs that we have access to here did a sudden and dramatic flip and showed much milder weather returning during the second half of that month. We also had the famous occasion 14 years ago when it seemed as though the models were renaging on a cold spell that they had previously suggested and Andy Woodcock famously posted "Winter is over", only for the models to do another U-turn a short time later and brought the cold spell back.

The February 2005 episode is one that I especially remember as it was around that time when I first began following the daily model output through this website, and what that episode demonstrated clearly to me is that sometimes, the models can be as fickle as the weather itself often is in this country. Therefore, no-one should take any given solution shown for half-a-dozen days ahead or more as a certainty to happen. Anyone who has been following the models regularly at all times of the year for a while must know this. If they don't, they clearly cannot know much if anything about the nature of the model output.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

White Meadows
15 February 2019 22:11:06

 

ECM46 is available to all and so are GloSea updates. What do you mean by "special" data? As far as I aware there is only MOGREPS and that only goes out to about 8 days.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Thank you Brian for reiterating my question. Many profoundly state there’s a plethora of elite output they access. At the moment it appears they don’t have as much foresight beyond our view.

Maybe it’s reading the Grebes? 

Polar Low
15 February 2019 22:11:53

ensemble runs operationally with 12 members (just out of interest)

 

 

ECM46 is available to all and so are GloSea updates. What do you mean by "special" data? As far as I aware there is only MOGREPS and that only goes out to about 8 days.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Brian Gaze
15 February 2019 22:18:25

Thank you Brian for reiterating my question. Many profoundly state there’s a plethora of elite output they access. At the moment it appears they don’t have as much foresight beyond our view.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Sounds like bunkum to me. The reason you can't access the full ECM data sets on TWO (and most other independents) is purely down to price. If you don't believe that here are publicly available links which show that everything can be purchased. 

Products
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/catalogue-ecmwf-real-time-products

Pricing
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/accessing-forecasts/payment-rules-and-options/tariffs

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

White Meadows
15 February 2019 22:27:31

 

Sounds like bumkum to me. The reason you can't access the full ECM data sets on TWO (and most other independents) is purely down to price. If you don't believe that here are publicly available links which show that everything can be purchased. 

Products
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/catalogue-ecmwf-real-time-products

Pricing
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/accessing-forecasts/payment-rules-and-options/tariffs

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I wonder what else it is then they concoct their LRF’s from then? 

Polar Low
15 February 2019 22:42:27

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/model

 

I wonder what else it is then they concoct their LRF’s from then? 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

White Meadows
15 February 2019 22:48:38

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/model

 

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Cheers.

’Foam’ couldn’t be more ironic, for this winters proceedings anyway 🤣🤣

nsrobins
15 February 2019 22:55:25
The excitement about high uppers is interesting, but I maintain that in small increments the high is being projected to be further North with each run and across models (EC and GEM). Should the trend continue it won’t be record high temps dominating the conversation.
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Polar Low
15 February 2019 23:09:39

Indeed. I looked thru the lot earlier and 19 is a good example of something out of no where

before it goes

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

The excitement about high uppers is interesting, but I maintain that in small increments the high is being projected to be further North with each run and across models (EC and GEM). Should the trend continue it won’t be record high temps dominating the conversation.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

doctormog
15 February 2019 23:21:53

The excitement about high uppers is interesting, but I maintain that in small increments the high is being projected to be further North with each run and across models (EC and GEM). Should the trend continue it won’t be record high temps dominating the conversation.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I guess a bit of both is not out of the question and may please most people at one stage or another. The GFSP/FV3 FI section suggests the kind of scenario you are discussing.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

David M Porter
15 February 2019 23:38:11

The excitement about high uppers is interesting, but I maintain that in small increments the high is being projected to be further North with each run and across models (EC and GEM). Should the trend continue it won’t be record high temps dominating the conversation.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Interesting, Neil.

I too have noticed that ECM and GEM have been flirting with the notion of the high building northwards towards Scandi, but GFS doesn't seem to have been interested thus far. What we don't want to happen is for the high to sink SEwards and allow the atlantic to roll over the top.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

nsrobins
15 February 2019 23:48:35

 

Interesting, Neil.

I too have noticed that ECM and GEM have been flirting with the notion of the high building northwards towards Scandi, but GFS doesn't seem to have been interested thus far. What we don't want to happen is for the high to sink SEwards and allow the atlantic to roll over the top.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

A few of the GFS suite have hinted at it and skegging the 18Z collection builds on this. It would be entertainingly ironic if we ended up getting a cold blast after all given what we’ve endured these last seven or so weeks.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gandalf The White
15 February 2019 23:50:46

 

Interesting, Neil.

I too have noticed that ECM and GEM have been flirting with the notion of the high building northwards towards Scandi, but GFS doesn't seem to have been interested thus far. What we don't want to happen is for the high to sink SEwards and allow the atlantic to roll over the top.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

That's always a risk: a relatively small (in global terms) shift in the position and alignment of the high pressure cell and we would pick up a colder or cold feed again. The 18z GFSP ends with something close to this pattern.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
15 February 2019 23:54:39

12z ECM ensemble suite for London:

Looks like a continuation of the early spring conditions for another 10 days but there's a strengthening cluster bringing colder conditions later.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



David M Porter
16 February 2019 00:36:02

 

A few of the GFS suite have hinted at it and skegging the 18Z collection builds on this. It would be entertainingly ironic if we ended up getting a cold blast after all given what we’ve endured these last seven or so weeks.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Indeed Neil. It wouldn't be the first time though were it to happen that way. Rather like now, we had a period of exceptional mildness for a number of days during mid-February 1998 yet only a fortnight later we had lying snow on the ground here in what was our only noticeable snowfall of the whole 1997-98 winter.

It could be that the current mildness sees out what is left of the meteorogical winter, but I don't think that is a 100% certainty just yet. The runs over the coming few days will make for interesting viewing in terms of what could happen beyond next week.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Arbroath 1320
16 February 2019 00:42:33

Have to say I always find the MO fascinating regardless of whether it is showing cold or mild, even though I prefer a cold Winter.

The current projections are truly astounding for February. Next week looks incredibly mild, even warm in places and the ENS offer stunning agreement. What I also find noticeable is when the FI ENS say unanimously mild, we all take it 100% for granted, whereas if FI suggssts a unanimously cold Easterly, we treat it with scepticism. All down to experience of course!

What I would say about the current FI projections, is that I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure rise to our East becomes more NE through the coming days. ECM flirted with this in the 0z. Experience tells me that often on our shores an extremely mild period in late Winter can come to an abrupt end just when we think Spring is round the corner. Time will tell.

Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
Whether Idle
16 February 2019 05:45:09

How many of these type of charts have we seen this winter at 240 hours? 

GEM's  day 10 offering this morning

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Chiltern Blizzard
16 February 2019 07:25:18
*What I also find noticeable is when the FI ENS say unanimously mild, we all take it 100% for granted, whereas if FI suggssts a unanimously cold Easterly, we treat it with scepticism*

Indeed, though it’s very rare that we ever have such a consistent and strong signal for a cold easterly. When we have (last years being the only example that comes close) it did deliver...

For those that are fed up of seeing remorselessly mild charts, have a look at P4 in the 0z GEFS suite - if that came off (which it almost certainly won’t) it could eclipse last year’s beast... the blizzards would be epic.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Solar Cycles
16 February 2019 08:42:14

How many of these type of charts have we seen this winter at 240 hours? 

GEM's  day 10 offering this morning

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Would tie in with the MetO low confidence musings as we go into March.

Ally Pally Snowman
16 February 2019 09:05:17

I think a cold spell looks unlikely in the next 10/15 days after that who knows. But ECM Op and Means look solidly very/exceptionally mild for the nest 10 days.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
16 February 2019 09:47:25

*What I also find noticeable is when the FI ENS say unanimously mild, we all take it 100% for granted, whereas if FI suggssts a unanimously cold Easterly, we treat it with scepticism*

Indeed, though it’s very rare that we ever have such a consistent and strong signal for a cold easterly. When we have (last years being the only example that comes close) it did deliver...

For those that are fed up of seeing remorselessly mild charts, have a look at P4 in the 0z GEFS suite - if that came off (which it almost certainly won’t) it could eclipse last year’s beast... the blizzards would be epic.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

I had a run through the GFS ens before looking at this thread and was cheering myself up with P4 too

Winter does sadly look like it's going out with a whimper this year, with just the odd straggler in early spring bringing cold to our shores (although they do tend to go all in with it as P4 shows).

Mild to warm for the foreseeable, short cooler blip aside and a possible cool down to something more normal in deep FI. The second mild bump of 850s looks to bring warmer weather than the current one (which was pretty warm). For me there's months for it to be warm, seems a shame we're wasting the dying embers of another winter with warmth (and yes I'm aware that's not going to be an opinion universally shared )

 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Remove ads from site