Again I note that all of the data sets on that page are available to third parties. I see no evidence at all of the Met having secret internal data available exclusively to them.

I'm not disputing February so far but was commenting on the rest of the month to come. Groundwater levels at Chilgrove are average fo Feb, though declining slightly which would not be expected for a month or so yet.

No rainfall shortage here either this winter Dec total 18 mm Jan only 25 mm but Feb to date 65mm. Even up to last weekend fields were still flooded around here . 2018 overall also was around the long term average for eastbourne at about 30 inches.

The average for the three winter months for your location is 210mm, so assuming not much more falls this month you’ll be little more than 50% of normal.  The issue, as you know, is that normal spring and summer rain does little to recharge the aquifers.

And how did you work this out when the December rainfall amounts were not divulge?

Oh and December was extremely wet down here with excess of 125mm if rain falling.

The gosport station that I can access historical saw around 120mm in December, 20mm January, and 46.8mm (so far) February.

That s 186.8mm so far this winter not far off the 200mm winter average, so I suspect Eastbourne which is just along the coast won't be much different.

Apologies total mistype  from me Dec total was 158mm  local station at Ratton slightly higher

apologies total mistype from me Dec total was 158 mm and local station at ratton slightly higher.  ( the 5 on my key board needs an extra push!!!}

I don't think that this problem is confined to just the SE of England because there seems to have been be a distinct lack of rainfall right across the eastern half of the UK in general since at least before last summer. As an example of that, here is the latest GFS ensemble chart for Edinburgh and even for here, you have to say that is a very dry picture indeed.

During this winter so far, the rainfall figures for my local area has been as follows:

December 2018:  37.8 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 33.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh
January 2019:      10.2 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 12.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh
February 2019:     17.8 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 15.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh (as at 7am this morning)

This then adds up to a total of just 65.8 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank for this this winter so far as at 7am this morning, along with 61.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

Back in December, I was commenting quite a lot in other threads on this forum about just how dry it was even at that time. That indeed, was a very dry month here where the above rainfall totals for that month which I have just quoted here, were less than two thirds of the 1981-2010 average for that particular station.

Yet, it is now looking increasing likely that December is actually going to end up being our wettest month of this so-called "winter" especially if those above GFS ensembles for here end up verifying. Furthermore, we are coming up to the end of the winter now and since I first just joined this forum back in 2016, this will be the first time that the total rainfall for any season has fallen short of the 100 mm mark at any of my three local stations, and we are clearly going to be well short of that here (the 1981-2010 winter average for here is 193.7 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 175.3 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh).

The alarm bells resulting from the lack of rainfall here in the east of Scotland have been ringing for quite a long time, and this is also reflected in the latest water scarcity report from SEPA for Scotland which can be viewed here. These reports have been telling us for some time that we really needed to be getting an abundant level of rain during the winter in order to raise the groundwater levels to anything which is even remotely close to normal so now that this much needed winter rainfall just hasn't occurred, the alert level in response to that has now been raised from low to medium, especially in NE Scotland.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=478

A mean 850 from the GFS ENS of almost 10°C- not unheard of; but certainly rare consistency at almost a week out for such a temperature- in February!

December was divulged..... but as Sunny Coast has said, with a missing digit.

So, a wetter than average winter - but, to get back on topic, a quite remarkable spell of largely dry and very mild weather for many.

Well it's piddling down here today. Some much needed rain to top up the reservoirs and rivers of S.E. England.

06z ICON showing 16c in parts of NE Scotland and NE England on Thursday

Daily record is 17.5c Banchory, Aberdeenshire in 1974

I think we may be able to add a couple of degrees to that in places 

Looking at the output, I am going to have to start mowing the lawn a month earlier than normal.

So those precipitation spikes on the 00z run as well as 06z run have now disappeared and it's looking drier and drier or the rain is holding off at the same time this milder than average or 'warmer spell' in February is becoming more prolonged! Notice how dry it is with maybe a few spikes coming up by 4th March in FI but this is so unreliable and will most probably be wrong and we will see a continuation of this dry and milder weather.

Just to contrast look at the ensembles for NYC

From -10 to +10 uppers - so erratic and exciting!! Let me guess? Erm...i think it will be wetter than average for them ha!?

Cold snap (spell) may be gaining slightly more traction into the first couple of weeks of spring. Looking beyond day 10 so no more than a passing interest at the moment.

Sky News reporting a small chance of the all time February record of 19.7c being matched this weekend.

ECM is a cold outlier unsurprisingly

London

Southern Scotland it goes both warmer and colder than the mean 24th onwards

I think we can put that particular Op run in the bin. Not buying the early March cold spell just yet maybe 10% chance. Before then crazy mild