12z @ 240:

Never thought I would spend most of early Feb experiencing and posting GFS charts that show temperatures some 10c above average for the Uk! Most February we would be lucky to see temps of 10c but looks like we could see the teens for not just days but weeks!? If this materialises we could see temps of +18c by next Sunday. 

People in Southern California would have to come to the UK for warmth and sun!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_240_18.png 

A real 'early in the year' bonus to be seeing such springlike charts in February. 

And that's because the point used for Inverness is circa 300/400m in elevation 😁

Ps Brian, don't alter it. It's very handy.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

An awesome chart and set up Hope it stays for the next 7 months.

Bring it on - to hell with the cold.

We will end up paying for this warm spell it reminds me very much of 2007 and look how that summer panned out.

We may well even get a cold spell yet i wouldnt rule it out if the undulating moves we could end up in the freezer.

Not be put too fine a point on it it's utter bxll. You can cite counter arguments in most scenarios that are proposed. Our climate simply isn't easy to read.

Your ‘law of averages’ is actually our climatic norm: it must apply over the long term. That doesn’t preclude long periods of drought, high rainfall, warmth and cold but they must average out eventually.

Indeed. One only has to look at how hard it has been for any forecaster, even the pros, to accurately forecast the weather a week and more ahead during this winter to see this, which is something that has been much commented on in this thread and in the media thread in recent weeks.

As I mentioned the other day, we would have been better off IMO ignoring the models that go further than one week ahead this winter and simply concentrating on the UKMO op runs twice a day during this winter. It seems that those models that go further than a week ahead have had a really hard time of it this winter when it comes to accurately predicting what happens further ahead.

Your climatic norm refers to a period of decades at the least. Rob is talking about people citing a mythical law of averages when they're making a forecast for the next few months. Nothing at all to do with climate. 

It may not be the long spell of springlike warmth into next week that some are ‘resigned’ to after all.

Upgrade:

Temps into upper teens!

17c over Cairngorms!

Saytime maxes of -3c if P16 came about- Gosh imagine the shock?

Luckily it's FI and a cold outlier but this is the problem - esp with early springs or getting springlike temperatures in a winter month for weeks on end! March could turn out totally different!!

06z ensemble chart of London:

Whichever way you look at the current charts it is frustrating, that despite this absolutely glorious spell of weather, how uncanny it is that for a mild HP in winter it can predict it with utmost accuracy from miles out while they can't do this for the cold high pressures! Furthermore they are not so good at predicting the position right once summer arrives 

Where's Darren's ensemble watch ?

3 perturbations fall to -10c or lower on the 6z ! 

And for contrast:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/12_252_850tmp.png?cb=320

Is this even possible? 850s of 16°C + over N France in February? P12 on the not-so-FI in the 6z.

Actually, there are a number in the ENS around 25th giving 10C + uppers for London. Not common, I would venture.