That would cause some damage. Very soon vegetation will start to bud - If we get a cold shock it would be dreadful.

GEFS12z continues to suggest a truly historic spell of weather at 1500m. How that translates to the surface is open to debate but if today is anything to go by we are in for a treat at times during the next couple of weeks.

Thankfully that coolish ECM was at the bottom of the ensemble pack Neil 

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

As for the 240 hr GEM ?...I don't think we should be too worried as we maybe import a waft of +4c (850Hpa) air 

Agreed.  Im liking the ECM 12z as Im sledding and skiing in the Harz mountains in central Europe Tuesday - Thursday  and the incursion of colder air late on Monday will be a great help to preserving the snow as its not Alpine.  Greatly relieved!

Have a great time Phil. 

Clicked on link to find it had updated to the 12z....  but with the 10c isotherm extending up in a thin slither to the Faroes!

Enjoy! 

Meanwhile back in the UK 

Historic and epic ECM 12z run tonight. Thickness values of 560 dam into the south west this month.

ECM would surely break the all time February record and hit 20c. Astonishing run!

Yeah, that's the trouble with links Chiltern; & we're not supposed to copy the images. IYCBI, what the intended post showed was a bubble of 15+ uppers over much of the N of France (inc. Paris which had a circa 16.5 hit) and just the hint, given the wind dirn & pressure change tendencies, that SE uk might get something special.

Sorry 'bout that.

Mild & warm are relative.. 

18C in February is warm, 18C in April is mild.

I think this is the one:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=06&charthour=252&chartname=850tmp&chartregion=na-region&p=12&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Indeed this is what the Met Office were going for at this time. Ouch!

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become establis

Forecasts can only ever be as good as the models they are based upon even with the most experienced professionals interpreting them.

Think it would be there for the taking some of those ecm charts look warmer than the record bear in mind sun uv would be be around 2.=2.25 at that time

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=1&month=2&day=13&year=1998&map=1&type=ncep

This was supposed to be a time of extremities. The fact we’re experiencing/ about to experience unprecedented warmth in the very period they consistently wrote the exact OPPOSITE only makes their performance more laughable. 

I’m sure you’ll continue to disagree so Have another good look: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Good post, Michael.

If we are going to have a pop at anyone or anything, we might as well start with quality of the models upon which weather forecasts are based. It has been clear from the events of this winter that the forecasting models have led all of us, and I include professional and amateur forecasters and we punters on this forum, up the longest of garden paths. I guess what this winter has demonstrated very graphically is that even though weather forecasting models have come a long way in the last 20-30 years, they are still a long way short from being perfect and somehow I doubt there will ever be such a thing as a weather model which is 100% perfect.

IMO, we should be questioning the accuracy or otherwise of the forecasting models, not the ability and competence of the forecasters who communicate that information to Joe Public.

its the extent of the 850,s Anom T Crazy stuff Jires would be pleased in his shed in Feb

That in no way addresses my point. Do you think the Met Office professionals just picked a scenario that was not shown in any model output? We can get away with guessing and being lucky, they cannot and must go with the weight of the output they have access to. It’s hardly in their best interest to ignore the model output in the longer term because we amateurs know the GFS ensembles show something different.

I’m not sure how the t850hPa GFS ensemble data add any weight whatsoever to your point. I’m more than capable of looking at and interpreting the current output but thanks for the advice to look at it again anyway.

If the Met Office were suggesting cold or very cold conditions in the long term persistently it is simply because in the long term (beyond the hallowed GEFS range i.e.. post day 15) it is simply because it is what the models persistently showed in the that range. It is not a difficult concept to grasp surely? What that says about the models or the point in having longer term forecasts is a different point to how the Met Office make the forecasts.

14c above average madness, and to think pretty much exactly a year ago we were 14c below average.