Funny you should say that Matty as I have spent the last five-and-a-half years driving a beige car, a 2008 Skoda Octavia estate to be exact!

Good to see you back on here btw. You have been missed!

The 5-day max high is 10c in southern Scotland & 13c in the south given GFS has a tendency to under do temps at times and the potential Foehn effect isolated mid teens highs still can't be ruled out

Very little rain over the 5-days as you'd expect with high pressure dominating

I have virtually given up now. It's mid Feb and I can't believe i am saying this so early.

There 00z ensembles for Amsterdam here:

There are a few that go down to -10c @850hpa with a couple outliers going well below to -18c @850hpa

The reason I look at this is that if any easterly does occur (Seeing as easterlies are more common in Feb as we all know!) Then Amsterdam will be the first to feel the effects of one.

 Not well supported but can't be ignored, and will the 06z run show more colder blocked ensembles?

The last chance this winter?

p5

p6:

p19:

That gets a definite from me.  In physical/mathematical terms the weather is a chaotic system, so no matter what resources of observation or computing power are dedicated to predicting a future state, the reliable limit (notwithstanding the hints of the January cold spell indicated by GEFS some way ahead - as repeatedly commented on by Doc) is around 5-6 days, with a fair probability up to 10-15 days. (Or sometimes not.)  Unfortunately, in our current society, presenting people with the facts of reality can sometimes lead to them getting upset.

Yes but the weather is chaotic not random, this means that sometimes it is in a state that is more predictable than others

This winter has been a definite eye opener for me. I look forward to the chase for extreme weather all year around and the various long term “model outlooks” this winter have been red herrings and annoying.

What has impressed me though is the way the models have picked up on “butterflies” I.e. small disturbances in the various flows that have allowed them to pretty accurately forecast low pressure areas a few days in advance. I have no doubt that these have been very useful and in my view it is fantastic that these can be modelled to any degree at all.

My focus will definitely be on the sub 120 forecasts from now on.

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ec-30-day-month-ahead-forecasts.php  Exceptionally mild weather taking us into March 

till next winter guys  2019/2020/ 10th year anniversary of the 2009/2010 deep freeze.... this winter has been emotional and disappointing

Literally anything could happen from a week ahead, which is the whole point. Today is 12th Feb, so it is entirely feasible that Europe will go into the freezer from 20th Feb, regardless of what the models may be showing that far ahead at the moment. Those Cold members could be onto something - we will find out as time moves on.

Me neither.

It's worth remembering that the meteorogical spring does not begin until a fortnight on Friday, and everyone will remember the scenes the greeted many parts of the country on March 1st last year. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting a repeat of last year is likely this time, but as others said last night it would be unwise for anyone to be sure than the current mild weather will last uninterrupted until the end of Feb and start of March.

What we can be fairly sure of just now is that the current mild spell looks like lasting until early next week when it could turn more unsettled for a time. Beyond that it guesswork atm.

Seeing as there is nothing to discuss - which is usually the case this winter i just wanted to share the FI in P17:

Deep FI (LOL) day 9 CMA develops an Icelandic High with ridge to Scandi:

Game on chaps . 

CMA 240

What is the famous weather folklore about March coming in like a lion and out like a lamb? So still time for one more cold snap maybe yet (perhaps wtith transient snow) before the proper warm stuff arrives.

I note the slightest hint of sarcasm....

With the EC like this at 168, the CMA remains a pipedream, and we could be looking at  a February in the 6c + category:

Come on? Is it likely?

My feelings too,the days are getting longer the sun is getting stronger,all to look forward too from now on.

UKMO extended keeps the mild air coming with heavy rain moving into the north drier further south

March last year came in not so much as a lion, but more a snow leopard. 

The ECM op has good support tonight on the London mean. Quite remarkable really just how close it is for the full 10-days

Based on the ECMWF, UKMO, GFS and the ICON et all.

At 120 and 144hrs ahead it is a two day change back to wet and chilly as well as very windy conditions over the UK, but that should then give way to further dry fine and High pressure controlled weather across the UK.

And right now it is looking very mild, with warm sunny spells this week including the upcoming Saturday etc etc, the UK West NW Europe High Azores Sceuro High- looks quite a role player in our weather outlook.

This year 2019- there should likely be plenty of very dry settled very warm hot and sunny weather.

As for hoping to get any much needed cold and snowy snaps this upcoming Spring- that will be very hard to develop- our busy meandering PFJ will have enough buffers to prevent any proper weather improvements and little if any chances of bringing colder air towards our NW Europe shores!!!.