The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
11 February 2019 15:06:14

The ensemble mean maps for February have updated, and they show high pressure in charge through spring as a result it's a bit drier than normal and slightly warmer than normal

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 February 2019 15:38:16

The uncertainty is to be expected in a region where small differences can have large impacts. It’s not a “fault” of the models which needs defending, it is a feature of our temperate maritime climate. I suspect hemispheric patterns are a bit easier to spot than will it snow in my metaphorical back yard (the British Isles) situations.

A cold and snowy winter may not have had any more reliable model output the difference is that not many would have cared.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Gusty
11 February 2019 15:43:17

The uncertainty is to be expected in a region where small differences can have large impacts. It’s not a “fault” of the models which needs defending, it is a feature of our temperate maritime climate. I suspect hemispheric patterns are a bit easier to spot than will it snow in my metaphorical back yard (the British Isles) situations.

A cold and snowy winter may not have had any more reliable model output the difference is that not many would have cared.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It seriously makes me question why we  (as a bunch of nerdy amateurs) do this.

After 17 years of model watching and analysis it is clear that beyond 10-14 days things have not evolved and accuracy has not improved.

The society we live in demands more information, early planning, risk mitigation. There is an expectancy that the professionals should know whats happening in 3 months time. It feels to me as if the Met Office are simply being swept along with all of this..the sooner they admit the extreme limitations of long range forecasting the better.

A good place to start stripping out are the 16-30 dayers IMO. 

 

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

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tallyho_83
11 February 2019 16:05:35

 

A good place to start stripping out are the 16-30 dayers IMO. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Couldn't agree more because they have been very poor this winter!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Chunky Pea
11 February 2019 16:53:23

Interesting discussion on the 'NAO' and what the figures actually mean. What does that 0.56 postive NAO stand for exactly? does it represent the mean SLP deviation between whatever stations are used to measure the index on a daily and monthly basis? or something else? This does not seem clear.

 

For what it is worth. This chart, from Feb 17th, 1967, shows what a completely neutral NAO would look like at this point of the year. NAO index was exactly 0.00 on this day:

 

 

Edit, just to add another point.

While the NOAA NAO monthly figure cited above came in at 0.56. The mean of the daily values, also from NOAA, for the month of January came in at just 0.22. This inconsistancy between monthly and daily values, as averaged out over the course of any single month, is something I have noted more than once with NOAA data. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Russwirral
11 February 2019 16:59:53
Thats quite a beast of a HP cell developing isn't it. Pretty much Europe wide dry, warm and pleasant weather on offer. With only Greece missing out.

This is what we want to see in June not February. Still its nice to have. Lets just hope it comes back for a second visit in the summer!

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Rob K
11 February 2019 17:23:01

 

Yes me neither - like what does the -1,2,3,4,5 or +1,2,3,4,5,6 mean?

a couple days ago the AO was crashing with some ensembles  going down to -6 - what ever this meant? But look at the most recent one?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Yes that's what I mean, what does, say, -5 mean? Clearly it's not a 5mb difference. Why is it so hard to find a simple equation for how they define this number that get quoted all over the place?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tallyho_83
11 February 2019 17:36:04

12z ensembles chart has come out - only 2 ensemble members taking us below -5@ 850hpa in longer term otherwise...!?

Spring is well and truly in the air me thinks? 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Maunder Minimum
11 February 2019 18:12:53

12z ensembles chart has come out - only 2 ensemble members taking us below -5@ 850hpa in longer term otherwise...!?

Spring is well and truly in the air me thinks? 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Until the models flip the other way again. I have no faith in the MO beyond about 6 days, none whatsoever.

 

New world order coming.
JACKO4EVER
11 February 2019 18:16:57

12z ensembles chart has come out - only 2 ensemble members taking us below -5@ 850hpa in longer term otherwise...!?

Spring is well and truly in the air me thinks? 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

yes I think we can say with some confidence that an extended spell of spring like weather is quite likely now 

springsunshine
11 February 2019 18:59:59

Thats quite a beast of a HP cell developing isn't it. Pretty much Europe wide dry, warm and pleasant weather on offer. With only Greece missing out.

This is what we want to see in June not February. Still its nice to have. Lets just hope it comes back for a second visit in the summer!

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Even better if this weeks set up stays for months on end,it certainly feels imby that winter is rapidly coming to an end  

Not that there has been much of a winter,one week of cold weather,week before last, and that's it.Another year we go from autumn to spring

Brian Gaze
11 February 2019 19:04:53

Utterly remarkable GEFS tonight. They're the complete opposite of what many people were expecting to see this month. In their own way they are as impressive as last year's Feb's Beast. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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moomin75
11 February 2019 19:05:47

Utterly remarkable GEFS tonight. They're the complete opposite of what many people were expecting to see this month. In their own way they are as impressive as last year's Feb's Beast. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

They certainly aren't unremarkable Brian. We could really get a lovely spring like spell down here and I say bring it on.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Polar Low
11 February 2019 19:20:17

A Job to see what those 850 mean in February until you look at the surface this for London it’s remarkable for longevity of its mild and sunshine will make it very pleasant indeed the questions is will we pay for it later on.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

Utterly remarkable GEFS tonight. They're the complete opposite of what many people were expecting to see this month. In their own way they are as impressive as last year's Feb's Beast. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Solar Cycles
11 February 2019 19:20:20

Utterly remarkable GEFS tonight. They're the complete opposite of what many people were expecting to see this month. In their own way they are as impressive as last year's Feb's Beast. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

An early start to spring looks to be on the cards in my opinion with no signs of the Azore high retrogressing northwards anytime soon. I think we could see some quite remarkable temps come March but not of the cold variety. 

David M Porter
11 February 2019 20:33:02

 

Until the models flip the other way again. I have no faith in the MO beyond about 6 days, none whatsoever.

 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Same here, Maunder.

The models, according to my recollection, have been pretty much useless for much of the time for more than 5-6 days ahead this winter, Maunder. That said, GFS did pick up upon this week's milder spell a week or so back, but for much of the time this season there has been an awful lot of divergence in the models for prospects a week or more ahead.

Look at the end of the ECM 12z op this evening, for example. Quite a different ending from what the same model suggested this morning and seems to be toying with a rise in pressure to the east of the UK. The one almost constant theme of this winter's model output is that 5-6 days ahead has, for much of the time, been the edge of reliability.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Whether Idle
11 February 2019 20:37:53

 

Same here, Maunder.

The models, according to my recollection, have been pretty much useless for much of the time for more than 5-6 days ahead this winter, Maunder. That said, GFS did pick up upon this week's milder spell a week or so back, but for much of the time this season there has been an awful lot of divergence in the models for prospects a week or more ahead.

Look at the end of the ECM 12z op this evening, for example. Quite a different ending from what the same model suggested this morning and seems to be toying with a rise in pressure to the east of the UK. The one almost constant theme of this winter's model output is that 5-6 days ahead has, for much of the time, been the edge of reliability.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Well said David

For example, the CMA similar again to the ECM at distance (day 10): Those confident of a very mild extended spell may need to re-calibrate their thinking, so many options on the table.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
moomin75
11 February 2019 21:32:11

 

Same here, Maunder.

The models, according to my recollection, have been pretty much useless for much of the time for more than 5-6 days ahead this winter, Maunder. That said, GFS did pick up upon this week's milder spell a week or so back, but for much of the time this season there has been an awful lot of divergence in the models for prospects a week or more ahead.

Look at the end of the ECM 12z op this evening, for example. Quite a different ending from what the same model suggested this morning and seems to be toying with a rise in pressure to the east of the UK. The one almost constant theme of this winter's model output is that 5-6 days ahead has, for much of the time, been the edge of reliability.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

They seldom flip from mild to cold David as most people know. We are in for a prolonged spell of dry and mild weather I think. Those chasing winter may have to wait until December.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Polar Low
11 February 2019 21:40:12

Only downside I might have to cut the grass.

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

 

 

quote=moomin75;1085483]

They seldom flip from mild to cold David as most people know. We are in for a prolonged spell of dry and mild weather I think. Those chasing winter may have to wait until December.

snow 2004
11 February 2019 22:56:16

They seldom flip from mild to cold David as most people know. We are in for a prolonged spell of dry and mild weather I think. Those chasing winter may have to wait until December.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

I welcome the up and coming mild spell as long as we get the sunshine. Up here there's still a two month window where snow can be disruptive and stick around. There's been many a scenario in April where we've had 17C one day and 0c and 6 inches of snow the next. I don't think winter is done with us yet, even if this high sticks around for a few weeks. 

Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
sunny coast
11 February 2019 23:00:18

Only downside I might have to cut the grass.

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

 

 

quote=moomin75;1085483]

They seldom flip from mild to cold David as most people know. We are in for a prolonged spell of dry and mild weather I think. Those chasing winter may have to wait until December.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

   Certainly looks mild and fine up  to saturday but after that the 9.55 BBC forecast was of cooler and much more unsettled conditions next week with a dip in the jet . after that it is anybodys guess. As so often is said anything beyond 5 days is pure guess work . Late winter early spring can potentially be one of the most volatile periods for our weather flipping from summer like to winter and back again in the space of a week or so. Nobody can write off cold at this time of year . I can recall a half term Feb 2008 of fine sunny weather and i recall in west wales temps got to something like 17 degrees  . Fast forward easter that year was very cold and on 6 april we had 4 inches of level snow in eastbourne and max barely above freezing ! . This weeks forecast temperatures of 10 to 13 are hardly anything unusual for this time of year but welcome none the less!

David M Porter
11 February 2019 23:02:57

They seldom flip from mild to cold David as most people know. We are in for a prolonged spell of dry and mild weather I think. Those chasing winter may have to wait until December.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Or sometime in March or April. See the couple of posts above from sunny coast and snow 2004.

Someone mentioned the 2007/08 winter in this thread yesterday. That winter was similar in nature to this one from what I recall, yet we then had a month-long cold spell which started in late March and lasted until just after mid-April. There are no guarantees when it comes to our climate or even what the models do next, as this winter has shown very clearly.

 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gandalf The White
11 February 2019 23:25:54

 

Or sometime in March or April. See the couple of posts above from sunny coast and snow 2004.

Someone mentioned the 2007/08 winter in this thread yesterday. That winter was similar in nature to this one from what I recall, yet we then had a month-long cold spell which started in late March and lasted until just after mid-April. There are no guarantees when it comes to our climate or even what the models do next, as this winter has shown very clearly.

 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Isn't it extraordinary that after the experience of the last two months, which has demonstrated the limit of model accuracy is less than a week, people are still making bold predictions of an extended period of mild and dry weather?

Seriously cold weather is still quite possible until at least mid-March. In mid-February I'm just content with the bonus of 4-5 days of mild and reasonably sunny weather. Next week looks less settled but, at this stage, with average to mild temperatures, but that could change. It only takes an adjustment of the high pressure and/or the jetstream to put us on the cold side again.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



David M Porter
11 February 2019 23:40:49

 

Isn't it extraordinary that after the experience of the last two months, which has demonstrated the limit of model accuracy is less than a week, people are still making bold predictions of an extended period of mild and dry weather?

Seriously cold weather is still quite possible until at least mid-March. In mid-February I'm just content with the bonus of 4-5 days of mild and reasonably sunny weather. Next week looks less settled but, at this stage, with average to mild temperatures, but that could change. It only takes an adjustment of the high pressure and/or the jetstream to put us on the cold side again.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Well said, Peter.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Matty H
12 February 2019 00:05:05

David, if you were a colour you’d be beige 

personally I’m fully embracing this spell of weather. Today was only 10c but with the bright sunshine and noticeable warmth to the sun now when in it’s direct light it felt like spring. We are fast approaching my favourite time of year. The misery of winter is as far away as possible and spring and summer stretch into the distance as far as the eye can see. Sure we can still get some shite weather like the two foot of snow we had end of Feb last year, but it’s rare, and three weeks after that we were sat outside in the warm sunshine enjoying a drink. Fantastic times approaching. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

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