As for hoping to get any much needed cold and snowy snaps this upcoming Spring- that will be very hard to develop- our busy meandering PFJ will have enough buffers to prevent any proper weather improvements and little if any chances of bringing colder air towards our NW Europe shores!!!.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

i think we all look forward to longer days and more useable weather.and some spring warmth . But looked what happened in for example 2012 after a wonderful March !!! Or 2007 after a wonderful april etc etc

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 

'PFJ' denotes what?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 Yes but the weather is chaotic not random, this means that sometimes it is in a state that is more predictable than others

Originally Posted by: TomC 

Absolutely agree.  That's why weather forecasts are valid at all, and why their accuracy varies.  My point is that the accumulation of tiny inaccuracies in making a prediction from an initial state, when the prediction is iterated enough times to get to, say, 15 days ahead, results in completely invalid predictions.  That's why I agree with Gusty's comment 'A good place to start stripping out are the 16-30 dayers IMO' - I would say that they are not worth the paper they're not printed on.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

Absolutely agree.  That's why weather forecasts are valid at all, and why their accuracy varies.  My point is that the accumulation of tiny inaccuracies in making a prediction from an initial state, when the prediction is iterated enough times to get to, say, 15 days ahead, results in completely invalid predictions.  That's why I agree with Gusty's comment 'A good place to start stripping out are the 16-30 dayers IMO' - I would say that they are not worth the paper they're not printed on.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

Yes couldn't agree more with Gusty and yourself - this is a prime example below as to why they should be discontinued! 

I remember end of Jan this was the forecast by the Meto: - Notice they mention occasional milder interludes and that it was a possibility. Now here we are and have a week of temperatures of +12 to +15c by day and 10c by night which is not what i can refer to as temporarily returning to closer to normal, because closer to normal is around 6 to +7c? - See below as this exceptionally milder than average wasn't in any of their forecast was it? The Met Office got the cold start to Feb right but that was it! The rest of their forecast is totally incorrect/inaccurate and couldn't be more wrong even if it tried!? I,e Frosts becoming widespread and towards the end of the period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder. Well, today it's the 13th February - So what they really mean't is to say something like "there was a greater chance of it becoming even milder if not feeling warmer and springlike."

This was in the short to medium range anyway and they still got that totally wrong! I mean this is the MET OFFICE for heavens sake!

Sorry to go OT but just proves that the Met Office are wrong! Thanks!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Rain and hill snow will clear later on Monday, however further rain, sleet and snow will possibly arrive from the west on Tuesday. It will stay mostly cold, with frost and ice likely overnight. Thereafter, it is likely to stay changeable, with further spells of rain, sleet and snow interspersed by sunshine and showers. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, although further colder interludes are still possible. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Thursday 28 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold wintry, showery days and more mobile days with Atlantic fronts bringing rain across the UK, and occasional milder interludes remain possible. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder, more easterly flow developing.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Absolutely agree.  That's why weather forecasts are valid at all, and why their accuracy varies.  My point is that the accumulation of tiny inaccuracies in making a prediction from an initial state, when the prediction is iterated enough times to get to, say, 15 days ahead, results in completely invalid predictions.  That's why I agree with Gusty's comment 'A good place to start stripping out are the 16-30 dayers IMO' - I would say that they are not worth the paper they're not printed on.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

Yes couldn't agree more with Gusty and yourself - this is a prime example below as to why they should be discontinued! 

I remember end of Jan this was the forecast by the Meto: - Notice they mention occasional milder interludes and that it was a possibility. Now here we are and have a week of temperatures of +12 to +15c by day and 10c by night which is not what i can refer to as temporarily returning to closer to normal, because closer to normal is around 6 to +7c? - See below as this exceptionally milder than average wasn't in any of their forecast was it? The Met Office got the cold start to Feb right but that was it! The rest of their forecast is totally incorrect/inaccurate and couldn't be more wrong even if it tried!? I,e Frosts becoming widespread and towards the end of the period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder. Well, today it's the 13th February - So what they really mean't is to say something like "there was a greater chance of it becoming even milder if not feeling warmer and springlike."

This was in the short to medium range anyway and they still got that totally wrong! I mean this is the MET OFFICE for heavens sake!

Sorry to go OT but just proves that the Met Office are wrong! Thanks!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Rain and hill snow will clear later on Monday, however further rain, sleet and snow will possibly arrive from the west on Tuesday. It will stay mostly cold, with frost and ice likely overnight. Thereafter, it is likely to stay changeable, with further spells of rain, sleet and snow interspersed by sunshine and showers. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, although further colder interludes are still possible. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Thursday 28 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold wintry, showery days and more mobile days with Atlantic fronts bringing rain across the UK, and occasional milder interludes remain possible. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder, more easterly flow developing.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

The trouble with cherry picking statements like this is that you miss out the qualifiers (i.e. those words that weight the sentence with caveats). It's very obvious that the forecast gives an indication of the most likely outcome (as forecast by the models at that point in time) it doesn't guarantee that it will happen. To understand the forecast - which I'm sure that the vast majority of literate adults do - you need to read it in its entirety and think about the weight given to individual words. So, for example, in the sentence below there is a clear indication that the Met Office think it will still be cold with widespread frosts and in this respect they are of course wrong for this time period. However they are not saying that it is certain or indeed even highly likely and so when reading the forecast you have to balance the weighting of outcomes.

Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

In truth I find it irritating that people don't seem to be able to see this - it's not a Daily Mail type forecast which says that something will happen it instead gives the probable likelihood of the weather type.

I completely disagree with those saying that the forecasts should be axed - I'd much rather have an indication of the probable weather type than no indication at all.

There we are, rant over  - I feel better now!

P.s. Tally this wasn't aimed at you.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

In my opinion, when it has come to model watching this winter, we would have been better off by simply going by the UKMO runs a couple of times a day as this model only goes out to six days ahead. The other models which go a week or more ahead have had a total nightmare of a winter and have been as much use as a chocolate teapot. Yes, GFS did pick up on this week's mild spell a week or more before it actually began, but runs for a week or more ahead verifying as shown has not been the norm this winter.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Incredible dry and mild GFS ensemble set this evening from the 12z. Unlike when these show cold, this is far more likely to verify. Bring it on. ☀️☀️☀️🌡🌡🌡

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Too early to say - But I wonder if we're shaping up for a really warm spring.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger