Must have been 04, because 03 had a very good summer; August was especially great.

Some truly remarkable output appearing. Does it mean we're "using up our allocation of settled weather"? On the contrary, it suggests we're in a period when settled weather is more likely.

Not just one eye-candy chart, but the remarkable persistence of this sort of southerly set up in both GFS and ECM for the next 10 days or so. Fax charts are less convincing with more of s southwesterly influence for the admittedly shorter period that they cover.

It has been said that before computer-generated forecasts, the best forecast was to simply repeat today's weather. For LRFs, I think this still applies - a pattern with HP well established just off to our southeast is more likely to persist for some time into the future than not - and to confound those who believe in the mythical 'Law of Averages'.

If only it were winter.

It is clear what will happen now - we will get a taste of winter in March killing off the new flowers and blossom.

Spring is the new Winter and Winter is now just everlasting autumn.

Other than the fact that we have had precisely one colder than average spring this decade and numerous warmer than average ones, sure. 

First half of last Spring was cold and wet then mid April to mid July was so exceptional that we are not likely to see a repeat for a very long time.

Despite turning more unsettled in the second half of Summer, November is the only wetter than average month here since last April. Logic and common sense dictates that this can't go on much longer and that a wet spell will occur. I'd rather that was now when it's still too cold and dark to do much outdoors.

The outlook is dire boring and a complete waste of the last few weeks of winter. It's as appealing as a bucket of cold sick. There is a clear link between mild dry February and cold wet April. 1932, 1934, 1975, 1989, 1998, 2000, 2012. I'm struggling to think of one that was followed by a decent April. The prospect of cold wet weather arriving along with the light nights is sickening especially after this abysmal winter.

Agree with that Caz, although where I live the early part of last April wasn't exactly very springlike either; I seem to recall there being warnings out for snow in a number of areas on Easter Monday and just after that as a deep LP moved up from the south/south-west although in the end I don't remember hearing about any major falls in places. The weather deep warm up notceably after mid-April, just after the school Easter holidays here had ended. As you say, May was excellent as was the summer itself.

I do share MM's concern though that we could (note could, not will) end up paying for the current mildness at a later time. People were mentioning the exceptional mildness of mid-February 1998 at times the other week, yet the tail end of that month and the early part of March 1998 were much colder in my area. In fact, from what I remember we had more snow in my area during that period that we had had in the period from the start of December 1997 through to late February 1998. The British weather is a fickle beast.

Looks like HP all the way apart from a brief dip at the start of next week. Happy to see spring arrive now after getting a surprisingly decent snow event at the start of the month.

Logic and common sense dictate no such thing - after all, it was the very dry year of 1975 that contributed to the exceptional drought of 1976. 

You're simply looking for reasons to moan and it has long since gotten boring. Please find a different hobby.

A I right in thinking that these GFS's showing the HP always to our south and south east over France the true definition of a 'Bartlett high' or 'Euro slug'? Looking at ball models it does seem like we are in a period of dry weather but warm like very mild by day and southerly winds all the way - virtually southerly winds for all parts until the end of the month? Crazy! Never seen anything like this ever in my life before. I remember Feb 98 being warm as many of us do but it was so long ago many may not remember it that well - could we be in line with Feb 1998's weather pattern and warmth?
Also I am worried about that high pressure being so persistent and so dry, yet so early in the year!

I do wonder if this HIGH pressure - and it's persistence is the result of the SSW - only just that we are on the mild side of the block and it's way too far to our south? Anyone? iN THE End this high pressure is a blocking area of high but it's in the wrong place that's all. 

Just wondering your thoughts?

Thanks.

Temps could break records if this came off?

Notice temps is central and eastern parts up to 17 o 18c.

Incredible consistency in the GEFS. The 0z suite is quite remarkable; almost all runs miles above the average 850 line.

I agree with the likely pattern in bold; late March and April will be unseasonably cold. I'd add we'll get some pleasant warmth in May and early June, then Northern blocking leading to a cool, wet and windy July and August. Sounds familiar

Some of these outputs imply that the all time February max could be under threat.

I've sure bolloxed my CET figure for this going for 4.5C

The only ens run offering the prospect of snow before months end is Inverness where we hit 22 on Tuesday

All the others show zilch - I know Aberdeen has 1 but that's out of 23, so we can discount that in all honesty

Certainly some date records could fall next (not this coming) weekend if this is anything to go by:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_252_uk2mtmp.png?cb=795

Wide swathe between 16°C and 18°C. Would feel lovely.

So much for models performing poorly. 

This is far more preferable than chasing the endless rainbow of cold.

There is no significant difference in model skill between cold and mild conditions, unless you mean forecasts of such. 

Model skill falls overall during blocked setups with the models having difficulties in predicting the onset and demise of blocks. The pattern of this month is highly anomalous with moderate mid-lat blocking, yet the models are performing very well. 

Finally the little scatter even in the FI and the fact that the forecast verifies well is proof and demonstration of good model skill and not the other way round. 

Indeed - i also find it odd how the Met Office didn't forecast this unseasonably milder spell in their text updates? I mean if milder interludes or milder spells are to be brief as they keep suggesting then this is a very long 'brief milder interlude'!? Only 2 - 3 weeks!

The point I am making is that why isn't this milder spell being downgraded - like all 2-3 easterlies which never due? WHy are they being upgraded each run and how come there is never a flip from mild to cold but whenever cold is forecast there is usually a flip in the models to mild? See what i mean? Also if these recent GFS runs are to believed then the end of next week we would be seeing temps of 14 to +17c widely across the UK esp the more central and eastern parts as early as next Thursday.