http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

I will quite happily swap places with you on that because rain is something which we don't tend to get a lot of here these days and although others may well disagree with me, I would say that we really could do with getting that rainfall here as it's been so dry for so long now (that stretches all the way to before last summer here).

From what I am seeing, we are likely to get some rain over the coming days which is already helping to ensure that this month won't be anything like as dry as what January was in this part of the world.

However, it then doesn't take long for high pressure to build in again according to the latest model output. This has been ongoing since last May and as long as that continues, we are never going to be able to get even close to getting a wetter than average month in this part of the world.

For that reason, the last thing which I am going to be doing is complaining about getting too much rain here, whereas there will no doubt be a number of farmers and growers in this area who will be complaining about not getting enough rain, and who will therefore be very unhappy with the latest model output at the moment.

Indeed. I get why some might not pin any hopes on any significant cold, but the trend is interesting, and I would not rule out a flip in that mid term range that would also imply colder air coming into play, as per the MetO outlook that's currently rated as low probability. 

18Z ICON is more amplified than 12Z ICON.

If this trend keeps going we should see a quite sudden flip towards scandi highs everywhere.

Call me old fashioned, but I tend expect Scandi highs to be located over Scandi.

Have you not seen the rise in prices at Ikea lately? 

...

Anyway, a crunch point coming up in terms of how the models deal with the complex troughing and ridging to follow, but the trend on the ECM ens in the mid- to long- is a) far more volatile, and b) trending down. May well come to nought, but maintains some interest.

A small step in the right direction on the GFS 18z Op!

Looks over scandi to me.

Yes indeed.. though GFS not really interested...

ECMWF Windrichting

GFS Windrichting

More northern Russia ridging a little into Scandi

Yes and after the ECM something could be brewing. Scandi followed by Greenie high would be nice.

The trend is good anyway. A little more WAA is making all the difference. Based on 60hr from the GFSP I expect it to be a bit better too.

The ultimate hope is we can get a 'faux cold' scandi that eventually evolves into a greenland high but that seems a little too much to hope for.

One real advantage of the govt shutdown is the delay to the model transfer. So now we have two different high res GFS runs! I will be sad when it does transfer over and we are back to just 1.

I feel like the trend is going to continue and we will end up with a full blown scandi high. Everyone will get excited and the MO thread will be packed again. And then the trend will reverse and it will all dissapear.

Being a model watcher is so stressful

The difference between WAA on 96h between the 12Z and 18Z on the GFSP is very significant. Expecting a major scandi high on this run.

Major upgrade also on the NAVGEM18Z

Not far from a link up of the mid atlantic and arctic high.

NAVGEM ends like this.

If this keeps up we might see the WIO crew scuttling back from their spring breaks 😊
More than half GEFS now build heights to the NE with a few going on to retrogress to Greenland - and so here we go again?

WIO v WINO....

ECM 12z ensemble suite for London shows a clear trend towards a return of colder weather. The op was amongst the colder cluster but quite well supported. Beyond day 10 the colder options reduce somewhat.

How did i guess the 18z Operational was a cold outlier in it's ensembles?

I guess this will mean a gradual downgrade tomorrow or am I being too pessimistic?

Some X model agreement at 240:

ECM

Para:

Control:

0z ICON spins up a nasty low for the south on Sunday morning. Not quite as potent as the 12z chart yesterday but still very significant. Strong winds and snow risk as the colder air digs in.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9109/iconeu_uk1-2-78-0_gsw5.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4243/iconeu_uk1-42-81-0_mjt7.png

Trend to a colder setup continues... both GFS op and para end up with Greenland highs.... the para being particularly tasty!... All too far out to be taken seriously at the moment.  Roughly half the ens do too... not all of them lead to especially cold conditions though due to the GH’s relationship with other areas of HP and LPs.

ECM remains resolute in its determination to bring in an easterly in a week's time.