In the next few days I’d like to see a bunching of the colder GEFS before getting too caught up in the possibility.

ECM decent though (apologies for repeating it lol)

Not so good at 216hrs on this run as the Atlantic holds firm.

Of course it will happen all the really cold air has disappeared over Europe now.

Supported by  the BBC forecast last night, back end snow shown on in a band from East Anglia down to Southampton, but i don't see it on Arpege or Icon this morning.

What amuses me is the GFS Ensembles could end up having just the one mild bump around the 8th. This despite all the blow torch spring like charts/comments over the last few days. Even I was beginning to lose hope.

Being more optimistic, it's only early Feb so 4 week window for cold and snow down here and if the pattern does persist we'd drag some cold in eventually I guess 🙄

DeBilts might shed some light later this morning.

Well, buses always seem to come in twos so why not late winter easterlies?!  It could be up to 3c “milder” than last years and we’d still have a run of ice days and snow!

Interesting to see a shot of tropical air coming up the side of Africa.  Could be the perfect shot of energy to push the scandi into place and introduce some cyclonic easterly.  Its unusual to see such a feature and would have interesting affects on the Jet.

With that plume of WAA from north africa we almost get to an Omega block

Faux cold returns haha should be chilly with that set up

Ever the optimist ! It was 11.5C here yesterday and the GFS ensemble mean charts show well above average from 11th to 18th so a fair old blip if you are looking for a decent cold spell. Still chances after that though.

The vagaries of the so called "model output" discussion. At the moment all the evidence suggests the interesting weather will be in the next few days. Beyond that we could see a cool and boring easterly in parts of the UK. Beyond that things become very uncertain but you'd not bet on a full fat easterly like we had last year. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

There has definitely been a trend away from scandi high formation with slightly less WAA this morning. Hopefully not a trend that continues. I think, though, even if we do get a faux cold scandi high there is still a good chance we could end up with a retrogression to Greenland which is not an uncommon evolution.

Less WAA on ICON12Z

Well if the trend reversal is going to happen it might aswell happen now before a meaningful amount of hope is there to be crushed.

What interesting weather would this be then? 12mm of rain on Friday is not, in my book, at all interesting. 

Will be finally balanced with higher ground seeing a more lean towards snow. But as ever one to watch,

Gales probably qualify as interesting seeing how quiet the weather has generally been for months on end.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html 

AO interestingly was trending quite positive 2 days ago....

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 Also the feature this weekend is interesting.