The 6z is showing the promise we have been waiting for all winter - is it reflecting finally the downwelling of the strat? Is the Meto about to be vindicated with their forward guidance? Are we on the cusp of something special? Or is this just more of the frustrating model variability which has been endemic this winter so far?

I would like to hope that the GFS 6z is finally onto something, but only time and a lot more runs will tell. But clear signs from the GFS 6z at 8 days for the HLB we want.

No they have not.  They have said consistently that "Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather".  This is an obversation a possible evolution, not a prediction.  To be fair to them that is also what many members on this forum have also been saying, but with more conviction, hence the dissapointment. Their detail generally in the shorter term forcast have been fairly accurate in farcasting terms.

The MetO dont make the weather, they produce forcast based on what they see in data they have access to and good old fashioned human input, based on a vast amount of inhereted experience and knowledge.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a slight change to their forcast post mid month if the current data output continue to verify.  But I wouldnt say from the evidence i'm seeing that its going to be anything more than normal for the time of year.

GFS doing its best to keep the flag flying, but those ECM ens look solid for a return to mild south westerlies

And how often have the ECM ens been reliable in the mid to longer range this winter?

The forecaster who is writing it tweeted as much earlier this morning.

I don’t look at it as negativity David - more a cosmopolitan pot of many colours. From my perspective I take the UKM as a broad brush where they generally tone down options going forward and are rarely ‘bullish’. Because of this the persistent language such as ‘very cold’ and ‘disruptive’, albeit in the context of possible not probable, was and still is unusual and in this respect it is a partial fail on their part. No one can deny they’ve been pushing the message since Christmas so (thus far) it’s gone a bit wrong.

That said, it’s five weeks until March and things can change  (latest GFS op for instance - something mid range to raise hopes for sure)

Arh this is the one we should be asking re the Met Office updates then??

I've never been convinced to date on the background signals for HLB in January despite the SSW event. Apart from sporadic FI model runs there was never a consistent theme in the MO for HLB, and so it has proved to be the case.

I do detect however from the last few GFS runs, that the model is starting to pick up on a pattern change. It's still too far out to tell what that is, but given the Met's consistency in it's prediction of E/NE's in February, this could well the start of those signals building in the MO. GFS 06z op is encouraging as there is a clear indication of HLB from next week, albeit the Atlantic appears to win out in deepest FI. The next few runs will be particularly interesting I feel.

To my untrained eye, GFS is showing the cold out to the north and east closer to our shores. There was quite a change compared to the 0z.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

Up to the 2 week mark, I would rate the EPS pretty highly this winter. Anything after that, forget it. 

If there is one thing I have learned, or should I say, had confirmed this winter,  is that the daily ECM op runs are really not all that they are cracked up to be. Even within the short term it seems to struggle at times. GFS ops, while of course have their many faults, has proven themselves to be no worse for pinning down details in the short to medium term, and if anything, has proven to be actually better at times. 

That rather flies in the face of what Martin G said about the ECM ens on the last page?

I'm with you on this , if they have constantly had signs why would or should they change it?

If they do, expect it to be something like "there is a small chance of temperatures being closs or slightly above normal but the probability at this time is uncertain".  the likelyhood of below average temperatures continuing and the possibility of a colder evolution with weather from the N/E to Eastery regime possible.

Nah was changed to a more colder one 😂

6Z does an excellent job of delaying any breakdown into FI.

Moving on and hopefully the after noon and evening's runs can continue where the 06z left off.The Siberian high looks to be edging ever closer, I would not be at all surprised to see a change to much colder weather in the 8 to 10 day range.

Met office text now beginning to align with the general trends visible. Looks as though the south will get away with anything resembling proper cold with constantly changing & mixed conditions apparent.

The climb down begins.

Well the Icon output looks rubbish for next week. Any snow we might squeeze from Thursday and Friday is not going to be around for long - everything flattened next week and mild SW winds across the country. Far from a classic winter this one - only less bad than all those Bartlett winters we have had to endure.

Yes, a definite climb down in the language and words used in their long range outlook. As always, they've left the summary vague enough to offer wriggle room to be able to beef things up again should the MO swing to a colder evolution.

I will still be watching the day 6 period on the GFS for any further changes.

What the FI section of the GFS 00z & 06z runs this morning indicates to me is that those who have been dismissing chances of cold or very cold weather for later in February might, just might have been doing so a little prematurely.

There was considerable uncertainty for a while wrt this week's weather and I think it was suggested at one stage that the latter part of this week would turn milder, which now doesn't look like happening. IMO all solutions for the period beginning early next week are open to question and subject to change, even at short notice.

Lol.  There was mention of some milder weather (occasional milder interludes remain possible).  Wonder what happened to the change in direction to mild weather.