The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
27 January 2019 10:13:27
Check out the arpege. A catogary 1 hurricane hits the UK. Lol. An actual hurricane too (polar low)
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

BJBlake
27 January 2019 10:13:49

The whole prognosis looks messy.

I'm not holding my breath in the east - The polar. Vortex looks a little rounder and gradually  less influenced by SW, so mixed serving of normal winter fare, and snow on some hills. 

Just time for a Feb block though....

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Gooner
27 January 2019 10:16:25

The whole prognosis looks messy

I'm not holding my breath in the east - The polar. Vortex looks a little rounder and gradually  less influenced by SW, so mixed serving of normal winter fare, and snow on some hills. 

Just time for a Feb block though....

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Snow certainly wont be confined to hills 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Global Warming
27 January 2019 10:19:20

The 06z ICON which is currently coming out has Tuesday’s feature further south

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-54.png?27-06

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Some degree of model consensus now emerging for Tuesday evening (although that does not mean it won't change again). Most of the models seem to have the low pressure tracking across northern France, taking much of the precipitation with it. However, there is a front moving across southern England bringing a brief rain to snow event. 

This is the latest from the 0z WRF-NMM high res model

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2019012700/nmm-42-67-0.png?27-06

6z ICON

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2019012706/iconeu-42-59-0.png?27-10

6z GFS Op

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012706/63-779.GIF?27-6

6z ARPEGE

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2019012706/arpege-42-64-0.png?27-11

nsrobins
27 January 2019 10:54:14
Another GFS run with nice mild conditions mid term - for a while.
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
27 January 2019 10:54:53

^^^^^

Looks like several hours of snow rather than brief ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
27 January 2019 10:56:20

The far reaches of FI are looking interesting ………...again 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 10:59:04

The far reaches of FI are looking interesting ………...again 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

Definitely some very cold air to our east but some remarkably warm air as well to out south , very early looks more like April. 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
27 January 2019 11:00:20

 

 

Definitely some very cold air to our east but some remarkably warm air as well to out south , very early looks more like April. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin D
27 January 2019 11:02:02

Anyone up for an early taste of spring

image.thumb.png.2e6905a4feaa919c500b7d5a0795e9f5.png

Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 11:02:47

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

300h looks balmy

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
27 January 2019 11:06:08

The far reaches of FI are looking interesting ………...again 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Are they? 6Z GFS just shows boring HP sat over the country.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
27 January 2019 11:11:59
Has anyone checked the arpege 0z yet and seen the hurricane? It's absolutely insane. Clear eye and everything. Borderline catogary 2. I'm away from my PC but can someone save the UK arpege output before it dissapears. About 72 hours on 0z.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
27 January 2019 11:17:40

Has anyone checked the arpege 0z yet and seen the hurricane? It's absolutely insane. Clear eye and everything. Borderline catogary 2. I'm away from my PC but can someone save the UK arpege output before it dissapears. About 72 hours on 0z.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

 

You mean this?

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gavin D
27 January 2019 11:18:05

Has anyone checked the arpege 0z yet and seen the hurricane? It's absolutely insane. Clear eye and everything. Borderline catogary 2. I'm away from my PC but can someone save the UK arpege output before it dissapears. About 72 hours on 0z.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Archive is here

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?jour=27&mois=1&annee=2019&heure=0&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&runpara=&carte=1

Gooner
27 January 2019 11:19:32

 

Are they? 6Z GFS just shows boring HP sat over the country.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Look at the bigger picture 

HP over us with Bitter air to the East or raging SWlies ermmmmmmmmmm

Thought you were better than that 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Rob K
27 January 2019 11:22:51

 

Look at the bigger picture 

HP over us with Bitter air to the East or raging SWlies ermmmmmmmmmm

Thought you were better than that 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Doesn't really float my boat - if my name was Yiannos and I lived in northern Greece then maybe 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

scillydave
27 January 2019 11:24:06

 

 

You mean this?

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That's insane! It tops out at 116mph over the North West of Scotland- the islands are used to wind but that would be ferocious! I've never seen anything like that before.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Quantum
27 January 2019 11:26:39
It had a Max wind speed of 150km/h and a Max gust speed of 191km/h. What an insane chart. Still kinda there on the 6z bit just a regular polar low.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
27 January 2019 11:29:25
It's a bonefied hurricane. Deep warm core, outflow, eyewall, cat2 strength. Tell me this isn't the most insane output ever.
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 11:35:16

Arpege wind gusts. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 11:37:09

Lovely long fetch southwesterly in GFS 6z FI. Completely at odds with the Met Office long range (Isobel Lang in the ST mentions the possibility of a bitterly cold easterly in Feb too).

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 11:45:47

GEFS 06z not back downing yet and if anything the signal for milder conditions during the second week of Feb is strengthening. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

David M Porter
27 January 2019 11:47:00

Lovely long fetch southwesterly in GFS 6z FI. Completely at odds with the Met Office long range (Isobel Lang in the ST mentions the possibility of a bitterly cold easterly in Feb too).

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Point noted Brian. However the last few charts of the GFS 06z don't support this set-up lasting for that long.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gandalf The White
27 January 2019 11:47:32

GEFS 06z not back downing yet and if anything the signal for milder conditions during the second week of Feb is strengthening. 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

ECM has been showing the same trend in its ensemble runs in recent days, although I'd say 'less cold' or 'nearer average' than 'mild'. Plus there's the underlying uncertainty.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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