Next Tuesday night:

Very unexciting, really.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/significant-weather/20190130-0000z.html

(That's the precip-type chart for the same period).

Yes, I thought you might post the weather.us chart!  Still, as you would know, the detail is guesswork at this range. My point was that it’s certainly not at all mild and there are possibilities in this set up.

The thing is surely if you use those charts then you would need to consider the snow depth charts derived from the same data?

This is by day 10 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190203-0000z.html

And on Tuesday, nothing noteworthy but maybe quite a widespread dusting https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190130-0000z.html 

Personally? I don’t rate either from experience as they either miss snowfall or overdo it. That is probably more indicative of the almost unforecastable nature of snowfall at a few days out than anything else. The opportunities are there.

Indeed, it's right on the boundary of being cold enough for widespread snow - and a few degrees below average overall.

It's worth mentioning that the ECM long-range charts from a few weeks ago are pretty much spot on, in that they showed temperatures a couple of degrees below average (averaged across a 1-week period), along with low anomalies near western Europe and high anomalies to the north and NW - all signs of lows displaced further south than usual. And that's what we've ended up with, it seems!

As I said, if I was up north I'd be getting somewhat excited. None of those snow depth charts show anything of interest for the populous SE, however, even if you take them at face value.

Indeed they are, but the main reason I posted that precip-type chart was to show that even where something was falling from the sky, the parameters supported rain rather than snow... just not quite cold enough aloft.

Again, as I've said earlier, there is a chance of snow for some, especially in the north and west but not exclusively so. We won't know for sure until the day itself, but for now I'm preparing for wet rather than white.

Solidly cold ECM means would suggest snow likely away from the far south from 96h to 240h.

Morning Darren. 

I agree that the potential isn’t great for the south, but I’d argue those ECM precipitation charts (just like the snow depth) are notoriously poor for detail. 

UKV in contrast is already picking up on the possibility for snow here on Tuesday for example.

With a setup like this I’m reckoning some precipitation could “pop up” at short notice, and with uppers at or around -7C, a lot of it could be snow. 

ECM about the only long range model that has been anything like correct though - even the Beijing climate centre was originally showing extensive Greenland northern blocking for this week not so long ago and that's now pushed back into mid Feb I think. Until the 10 day models start showing northern blocking on our side of the pole ,I think long range models in most cases seem to have lost the plot with ECM being the exception.

As Retron says the next 10 days is a good outlook for most of the country snow possibilities wise, but down here I'm expecting rain with perhaps some wet snow as we saw Tuesday evening if we're very lucky!

ECM 10 day looks a better run today though than the last few runs and GFS seems to have trended milder overnight going on the ensembles,  but very volatile currently so hard to take anything past  4-5 days seriously at the moment. As someone else has mentioned, perhaps when the cold relents a bit in Eastern America that might help us a little with HLB as we move into February.

Sigh.  I guess I shouldn't get too upset - I do live right down on the coast, but I'd love to see some snow this winter.

I still think you will be in the game at points next week just not all the time. Having grown up in West Sussex I know how difficult it is to get the right set up for snow down there.

I think best case scenario is the snow line to fluctuate between the south coast and Birmingham , worse case between northern England and the Central Belt in Scotland. 

Still waiting for this SSW to really kick in, guess second week of February best estimate but keeps being pushed back.

Well, I'm travelling down to Brighton this PM so will leave our winter wonderland behind.

I'd suggest travelling up this weekend but it will be all gone with the progged overnight rain.

I have to say that the charts are indicating some interesting and marginal features running through the UK next week and it looks good for the North for more snowfall as well as ''high ground'' in the South 

In all seriousness, all models have reverted to a cold outlook with last night's threat of milder SW winds pushed away.

What is striking, is the repeated lack of model consensus even out at 120H - it's as if the models don't know what the AH will be doing next!

I have noticed this too recently. If there is a lack of consensus among the model at less than a week ahead, there is no way that any of us can be anything even approaching confident about what happens further ahead.

It is almost as if the models are still getting to grips with the effects of the SSW that commenced just before Christmas, but I could be wrong about that.

The 6z ICON looks great for snow 96h to 120h

Nice upgrade from the ECM this morning as LP heads southward instead of northward thus allows pressure to build over Iceland and for us to pull in easterly. 

This mornings ECM @ 216:

Compare that with last nights 12z ECM @ 216.

Always difficult to compare as the time stamp is 6 hour apart but still it's trended colder. 

Hi Rob

The atmosphere has caught the Brexit bug - utter turmoil!

Can you tell from your saved pics which model picked up on this mild incursion first - from what I recall it was a loner about a week ago before the other models picked it up?

I know one event does not really count for verification purposes but I would be interested to know.

The extent of snow we have here and the near ice day yesterday was a real surprise so it is a shame that the temporary mild weather will blow it all away.  I am more excited now about next week than I have been so far - the problem is I don't believe ANY of the model output just yet

Better shape to the GH @129hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_129_1.png.

I was only saving the weather app forecasts but as I recall it was the Friday 12Z ECM last week that first picked up on the milder incursion. Hard to believe it will be double figures as we still have lying snow from Tuesday, set rock hard on the lawn. 

Differences at 144hr are huge from 0z to 06z@

00z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_1.png

06z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png

Are you sure youre looking at the right ICON issue?  its probably the most snowless out of all the models.  It shows very few wintry showers to the north west.  

Last NIGHTS 18z para chart at 300:

This mornings 00z Para chart @ 300: - Couldn't be more different even if it tried!?