http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_144_10.png

Look at Tuesday on the para for example

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_144_2.png

No point trying to pin down detail at this stage but the snow potential is there for some. 

How do you see the GFS Parallel model on Two, I don't see it on the menu here? https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Oxford is always covered by the South East, too far south to be Midlands.  

12z Para @ 147:

In contrast to the 12z Op run @ 147: - Similar to control run! So Para not well supported!?

Not sure its there I normally look at wetterzentrale.

Great GFS ens, best set of the winter I think 

On another note, I would add to some comments of yesterday, who needs an Easterly lol, many had snow yesterday from a North Westerly, a few more of those will do me just fine 

Under the chart, where it says "Operational" in a green box, click that and it will change to "Parallel" in an orange box.

Maybe Brian could put it somewhere a little more obvious, it took a bit of hunting! 

Exactly that, from both posts. Nothing has changed in what we know or what we can expect. Other than it will be cold.

Here’s the ECM so far 

Cold, but is it cold enough for wintriness? Perhaps not.

Interestingly by day 4 the GFS op run t850s seem a good 2 degrees or so higher than on the other models’ output.

Beyond this point apparently we are in FI but it will be interesting to see what it shows anyway.

That depends not just on your age but also on where you live. Here in lowland Surrey, a level foot of snow and 15 foot drifts would be a once or twice in a lifetime event (within my lifetime, I think only 1962-3 would qualify). And a six inch fall, or even a depth of six inches from several successive falls would be pretty special.

My suggestion is to launch models from the new Model Inventory page which is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-inventory.aspx

It provides a (almost) live overview of how the data downloads are progressing through the day and links to the newer model viewers.

Thanks Brian, I have book marked.

LOOK What's happening yet again over in NE USA/E. Canada @ the ECM chart for T+192: - This will blast up the jet and flood across the pond and ruin our chances (yet again!) of a Greenland Block or Scandi for an easterly.

ECM has the low at day 8 to far west like the GFS Op.  They wont be right at that range but we do want it much further east.

 It's the theme of the 12s and not a good one hope for better tmrw.

This ECM day 8 850's  snapshot sums things up well: relatively thin slices of mildness interspersing colder wedges, though nothing brutally cold - more polar Maritime with dagger-stabs of Arctic cold in the north.  Nothing extraordinary.  Nothing particularly notable, though pleasingly seasonal with some snow chances thrown in, assisted by altitude and latitude combined.

Although the GEFS mean T850 is almost flat-lining the Op and control, with some support, are hinting at another "bump-in-the-road" around 1st Feb.

Good job Jim Bowen wasn’t a weatherman 

Hmm, I wonder what his tag line could possibly have been...

As a wise man once said “caution must be observed as I think FI starts at T+96” 

😂

never a truer word spoken Doc 

Feb 1 is a date I have been looking at for a couple of days as potentially some kind of snow event. So the bump in the road could (hopefully) be big enough to bring lots of moisture but not so mild as to bring rain!

So here is a FI chart from GEM.

JFF as they used to say: Another possibility, flat and quite zonal.

Poor output tonight with the models now settling on the pattern going wrong again for us around day 7. 

The PV just won't relent other than to allow us the occasional cold shot, and signs on the ECM and GEM of it going wrong in decisive fashion - I think the METO outlook for both next week and beyond is in trouble.

just look at that wasted Euro trough, so frustrating. It seems to have been hanging around for ages.